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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    eh, I'd picked up the link from another forum. It was a very detailed dashboard, and it seemed to be pretty resource-intensive as a website. I can't imagine it was coming at no cost to the IT department of Johns Hopkins. So they pulled it into their controlled-access-only portion of the website, just like I would have.

    I like getting data feeds and all, but if the act of serving that data to One Guy on The Internet makes it harder for them to present it to an actual doctor or epidemiologist or other health pro, then I completely understand. Their professional demands vastly outweigh my curiosity.

    Besides, the figures that were actually reported on the page were a fair match for what @bisco's been posting during the 48 hours I had access. Now if he goes missing I'll be ready to subscribe to your conspiracy theory.
     
    #201 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Feb 11, 2020
  2. George W

    George W Active Member

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    Notice I didn't say 'from the same site'. If anything, the fact that your independent references are both confounding the data to the general public, only 'coincides' with a larger circle of POLICY.
     
    #202 George W, Feb 11, 2020
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i think everyone understands the china syndrome, even if some only respect facts
     
    #203 bisco, Feb 11, 2020
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Daily situation reports are still being presented by WHO. I assume their data (from China cases) comes from same source as government ncov.dxy.cn site, also being updated..

    ==
    Our topic is now named COVID-19, following WHO meeting in Vienna.

    Media begins to talk about slowing down of this epidemic, so I present my first thing about that.

    COVID 19 daily change confirmed.png

    Confirmed cases in China. Daily differences are between two successive WHO sitreps. Last datum is based on ncov from today and may be different when sitrep 23 comes tomorrow.

    There is an obvious inflection point, and people are beginning to draw conclusions from that. As long as this stays positive, daily confirmed cases are still increasing.

    We'd need to know details of data preparation to know if cumulative confirmed cases can decrease. There are two ways to exit that category - by recovery or fatality. Both those are being tracked separately.
     
    #204 tochatihu, Feb 11, 2020
    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller likes this.
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    What are we to them? Referring to evolutionary pressures on viruses to confront (e.g.) humans in one way or another. Because humans are an excellent way for a thousand virus particles to grow to 100s of millions.

    Here is a compilation of human-body facts from various sources, Without guarantee of great accuracy.

    Skin surface area: 2 m^2
    Nasal sinuses: 0.2 m^2
    Intestines: 28 m^2
    Lungs: 90 m^2

    All else being equal, we are essentially mobile, actively ventilated lungs. But all else is not equal; intestines in particular have their own microbiota which may resist (or assist!) viral infections. To reach rich pasture of intestines, candidates must also run the gauntlet of stomach with unfriendly pH and other challenges. Lungs are easy.

    ==
    A brief aside, while awaiting further developments, including a sure-to-be fascinating lecture on logistic functions :)
     
    #205 tochatihu, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    total confirmed cases in china: 44,653 deaths: 1,113

    severe cases: 8,204

    north korea still in the clear

    two senior health officials in hubei were fired today, according to state media
     
    #206 bisco, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 14, 2020
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For those following the game less closely, Hubei is the Province containing city of Wuhan. About 3/4 of confirmed cases in China are in Hubei.
     
    #207 tochatihu, Feb 11, 2020
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #208 tochatihu, Feb 11, 2020
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    or good coffee, for that matter
     
    #209 bisco, Feb 11, 2020
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #210 tochatihu, Feb 11, 2020
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Sorry but a proper pandemic needs to out race the pathogen. I don’t see that happening.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #211 bwilson4web, Feb 12, 2020
  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    And there are viruses in our microbiome that are helping us. Some in resisting bacterial infections.
     
    #212 Trollbait, Feb 12, 2020
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    pandemic is possible, but not predctable. watch and wait...
     
    #213 bisco, Feb 12, 2020
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #214 tochatihu, Feb 12, 2020
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    concerning uptick today. ny times: 48,000 cases, 1,300 deaths
     
    #215 bisco, Feb 12, 2020
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    China govt ncov website today has changed its reporting categories and I wait for next WHO sitrep to see how those get used. At the very least, reported fatalities were much increased today.

    I was planning to talk about virus' endgame but now that might be premature.
     
    #216 tochatihu, Feb 12, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  17. George W

    George W Active Member

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    As as of yesterday, China reported 252 more deaths, but these are propaganda numbers.It doesn't account for all its citizens quarantined, sick, and dying in their homes.

    Remember how the infectious period was 2 weeks at first, then 3 weeks, now considering to get revised again to a month? Seen the videos of sick Chinese citizens spitting on their hands and touching elevator buttons and sneezing on others? Better get yourself stocked up on sanitizers, as everything 'Made in China' reaches your shores.
     
    #217 George W, Feb 13, 2020
  18. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    If @tochatihu is agreeable, could a moderator change the title of this thread to include "COVID-19" per the new name officially recognized by the World Health Organization?

    Maybe a new thread title changed to something like:
    "Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)"
     
    #218 iplug, Feb 13, 2020
    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller likes this.
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    WHO is taking considerable flak from some university communicable disease professors for their response to date
     
    #219 bisco, Feb 13, 2020
  20. George W

    George W Active Member

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    CDC: Patient under quarantine at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland has coronavirus - San Antonio Express-News


    "
    The evacuees at Lackland are not the only people in San Antonio under quarantine.

    Officials noted Sunday that they are also "actively monitoring" Bexar County residents who had returned from China and are being self-quarantined at their homes."

    Not so fun fact. There are now 12 confirmed cases in the United States. One of them here in San Antonio. I'm guessing the other 11 are at other military bases in the Central and West coast of the United States. . Isn't that smart of the World Health Organization?
     
    #220 George W, Feb 13, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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