Bob Wilson (user bwilson4web) put together a fantastic analysis of what the January 2009 Hybrid sales report can tell us about who hybrid customers are and what drives them to purchase a hybrid automobile.
To compile the data for the graph above, I took the Green Car Congress January hybrid sales data and plotted the sales quantities versus manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) and hybrid quality, the City MPG.
To some extent, the sales volume determines the MSRP cost but vehicle hybrid performance is also important to sales success. I have chosen to use the City mileage as the quality of a vehicle's hybrid system. Sure, larger vehicles have a weight problem that drives their City performance down but that is where their designers chose to spend their time and effort.
The most successful sales models in the Toyota and Lexus families both have relatively good City performance and with larger sales, a lower cost (begging a which came first question.) Also, the data grouping suggests there are two groups of hybrids:
- Working - Toyota, Ford and Honda
- Luxury - GM, Lexus, Chrysler
This begins to support a hypothesis of hybrid ownership proposed by "CNW Marketing" and reflective of the luxury approach:
'Green' is an ego, a conceit - advertising the owner greenness is more important than low price or efficiency. Thus things like large letters or badges are important identifiers. As for the humbug of environmental 'green,' well as long as their money is good. One notable exception are large families who need the seats or stuff to tow.
There is another, larger group, the working hybrid owners:
Don't burn up your money - these folks look at gasoline as burning money ... along with everything else that has to be paid to live. Their money is green but crumpled and given only when there is good value. Given a choice, they would have no car but if they must, they will buy one that doesn't bleed their wallet every time they have to use it and buying a low quality, 'disposable' car is the same as burning money.
These represent extreme ends of hybrid ownership and there is some float as buyers have the freedom to choose which to buy. It is just each buyer approaches the problem with a different set of values and clever manufacturers offer products and values to all buyers. After all, the buyers have 'the green.'
As a variation on a theme, I've added the top 10 selling gas vehicles for January 2009 and combined them with the hybrid sales gotten from GreenCarCongress.com:
What this chart tells me is:
- Prius is in the mainstream - the numbers and location relative to the top 10 gas vehicles sold in January 2009, the Prius has arrived in that pool.
- Insight goal is mainstream pool - looking at the numbers, 40 MPG at $20k, Honda is trying to eat into that big slug of gas only vehicles. It is more likely a Corolla killer than a Prius killer.
- Ford Fusion good but too high - looking at these numbers and as much as I like the Ford Fusion, it is still too high to go mainstream. It will join the working hybrid group and be an honored member but it isn't mainstream, top 10 this year.
- Pickups are the target - they continue to lead USA sales with lowest costs yet abysmal mileage. The first pickup that is under $20k with mileage greater than 20 MPG is going to 'clean the clock!'
We're hybrid owners, Prius specific, and for good reasons tend to focus on our special interest. But it turns out there is a larger automotive market out there. Sometimes it is good to step back and see the big picture. <grins>
Bob Wilson
