Analysts say chance of U.S. recession now 50-50

So at last they're using the "R" word. (Instead of "bagel")

And Bernanke is playing semantics. We'll it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck.....

 

Yet unemployment is still over 10% less (5.0% compared to 5.7%) than the best Clinton years when their sycophants called the economy "booming".

The Clinton Record - Clinton's Accomplishments

BTW, you might know that Audi is leaving Bloomfield Hills with it's 1,200 employees for lower-tax Reston, VA in six months. Beat the rush and sell your home now.

Certainly some areas like yours are in recession. However, I'm currently investing in real estate in carefully selected areas that as a result of Democrat property confiscation, taxation and regulation have created short-term opportunity.

That explains my post in another thread why my county residential real estate is up 4.5% last year. A Democrat enacted Urban Growth Boundary keeps artificially inflating prices.

Their attitudes also contribute to my ability to sell overpriced Prii to gullible liberals in the most blue county (84% for Kerry) in the country.

Opportunity is where you find it and make it. I'm bullish on America this year. If a Democrat is elected, ask again. I'll adjust to capitalize on their failed policies.

 

do not know where your source is getting its statistics. The U.S. Dept of Labor disagrees (not how Clinton took a high unemployment rate -- legacy of Republicans,and steadily reduced it):

1992 7.51993 6.91994 6.11995 5.61996 5.41997 4.91998 4.51999 4.22000 4.0

The Dept of Labor also put the rate at 5% in Dec 2007, higher than most of Clinton's second term.

 

US News & World Report dated today:

"This is a much stronger expansion in a lot of ways. It's much deeper and more measured ... If you go back to this point in the Clinton expansion, they would have loved to have seen the numbers that we have right now. ... On the unemployment rate, we're a full percentage point below where they were at the same point in the expansion–60 or 61 months in. They would have loved to have been at 4.4 percent. They were still up in the mid-5s, which is huge, when you think about it."
OK, let's use Fratto's methodology. I checked the employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and found that 60 months into the Clinton expansion, the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent vs. 4.5 percent for Bush. The last time the jobless rate was as high as 5.3 percent under Clinton was January 1997, 49 months into the Clinton expansion. Fratto and I went back and forth on the numbers and how to best date the expansions, but his bottom line–via E-mail–is this:
"The Clinton administration clearly benefited from an expansion that began well before the election and well before they ever passed a single piece of economic legislation. This administration was clearly hurt by being greeted with a recession and the implosion of the technology bubble – well before we ever passed any part of our economic policy."



Bush vs. Clinton: The Economic Verdict - Capital Commerce (usnews.com)

 

This thread turned into a political discussion. I guess it now belongs in Fred's House of Politics. It just shows how ridiculous it is to segregate the political discussions from all other off-topic subjects.

 

The only time that the Fed has cut interest rates is when a recession was on the horizon or during a recession.... So, I guess it must be a duck (instead of a bagel).

 

"By one rough rule of thumb, a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters -- six straight months -- when the economy shrinks."

Well, 2nd quarter GDP growth was a strong 3.8% (annualized) and an even stronger 4.9% growth in the 3rd quarter. I haven't seen 4Q data yet.

It seems to me though, that if a "recession" arrives it will be due as much to the press (who have been harping about an economic downturn for the past 12 months) as to economic fundamentals.

The media is creating an economic self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

Tunnelvision? Or, selective use of 'facts'?

 

Just remember one thing: Economists have predicted 22 of the last 3 recessions. Predicting the very large US enconomy is very hard to do and many spend thier whole lives trying to forcast just one small sector. Where I live is doing very well. Unemployment is down and many of the jobs around here are the 'recession proof' type.