Are plug-ins viable or simply a matter of prestige?

Facts:

1) Toyota has sold 3 million hybrids most of them GenII Prius or later.
2) The Leaf and the Volt sales show none of the enthusiasm generated by the 2001 Prius which sold ~40k units worldwide, let alone the 2004 Prius which sold 130,000 units and has been growing at a steady rate since.
3) A 75 mpg plug-in hybrid will save just $282/year over a 50 mpg Prius for every 12,000 miles with gas at $3.52/gallon. Even with gas at $7/gallon these savings will never provide a strong enough financial incentive.
4) Toyota's hybrid competitors don't have the capacity to compete.
5) The infrastructure required for electrics will take decades and it is not clear that it is even economically viable.

Technology-driven/badge-driven owners aside, my guess is that plug-ins need 20 years, or a massive oil crisis, to become as mainstream as the Prius became within a few years of its launch.

 

Sure, but '04 Prius sold 50x more vehicles than the plug-ins with Japan sales excluded. And it had nothing to do with gas prices in 2004-2007.

It had to do with the perfect combination of targeting the low $20-$25k market segment and being willing to accept initial losses on each sold vehicle.

It seems unlikely that any other mainstream manufacture can accomplish this now: The low-cost hybrid market is occupied and no longer naive, and none of the other car manufacturers are viable enough to take such losses to lead. Certainly not GM... Further, that technology is simply too expensive and the infrastructure too absent for plug-ins.

If one assumes that the Volt @ $33k runs at an optimistic 65 mpg vs an $22k Prius at a realistic 50 mpg, one will need 8 years of $25/ga to even out for 12,000 miles/year.

The pure electric as a second car makes some more sense in terms of size, emissions and costs, but the infrastructure for such a vehicle is sorely lacking.