1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Cold in 48 states leads to Arctic shipping in 5 months

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Jan 26, 2014.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,159
    15,407
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    I was going to add a note but wanted to share something, a tactical point:
    There is a habit by those who abuse forums to use titles to set a forum tone. This was evident in "Fred's House of Politics" where instead of bringing up an issue for discussion, there was an obvious effort to make the titles supporting an alternate reality. Call it "SHOUTING BY TITLE" as it has nothing to do with content or discussing an issue. So in defense, I started the practice of posting threads with a unique title that contradicted the 'noise machine.' It worked or rather, it was less bad than having to deal with a deceptive title.

    Now locally, we've had repeating stretches of 2-3 days of below freezing weather with pipe busting cold. Yet every cold day I realized the arctic air in my neck of the woods is not building up sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Looking at ice coverage reveals a pretty wide margin between this winter's ice coverage on western (aka., European side) and to a lessor extent, the eastern edge of the Arctic Ocean.

    In 2013, there was ~1.3 million tons of shipping in the third, recorded season. Looking at the mid-winter ice coverage, it makes sense for the Arctic shippers to plan more for 2014. The cold air over the lower 48 simply means more Arctic passage in five months.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jan 26, 2014
  2. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    It also made sense for an Antarctic expedition to show the effect of global warming.Im afraid ice lane travel is going to be a lot more expensive after Turneys fiasco cost $2.4 million for rescue.
     
    #2 mojo, Jan 26, 2014
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,159
    15,407
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Not really. Commercial shipping insurance rates are not impacted by tourists misadventures. Actually, it looks like the Canadians might have over reacted when one of the tourists asked, 'We needed rescuing?'

    Regardless, it looks like the Northeast passage should have a pretty good year as the European end is still pretty thin:
    Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

    Bob Wilson
     
    #3 bwilson4web, Jan 26, 2014
  4. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2009
    7,543
    1,558
    0
    Location:
    Alaska
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    II
    Yeah, talk about wacky, I washed the prius today while ya'all back east are shoveling out. It was 52 here and I am sure that is a record! DSCN2809.jpg
     
    #4 spiderman, Jan 26, 2014
    DadofHedgehog likes this.
  5. bestmapman

    bestmapman 04, 07 ,08, 09, 10, 16, 21 Prime

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    1,289
    242
    3
    Location:
    Kentucky near Cincinnati, OH
    Vehicle:
    2021 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Limited
    Well Bob, we will have to see how your analysis/prediction holds up.
     
    #5 bestmapman, Jan 26, 2014
  6. Feri

    Feri Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    761
    144
    0
    Location:
    Maldon Victoria Australia
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    III

    Hi Bob, according to New Scientist your recent weather was not the Polar Vortex, which is a permanent phenomenon, but a slowing of the jet streams at that time allowing the weather system to hang around. Possibly that's what's happening again. (?)
     
    #6 Feri, Jan 27, 2014
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,159
    15,407
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    What brought it home was seeing a temperature map today showing this current slug of cold air centered over Hudson Bay with warmer air over western Canada and the Arctic Ocean. In effect, these massive lumps of polar air over the lower 48 are replaced by warmer air that slows the rate of ice formation in the Arctic Ocean. We'll see the results in about five months.

    I appreciate that there can be different weather patterns can lead to the current cold snap. Just Arctic Ice, like glaciers, are following one of the model predictions, at least for the Northern hemisphere. The North pole and hemisphere is seeing the earliest effects of global warming. But models are not static.

    As our understanding improves, it is reasonable to expect the models to improve and provide more details. Will they extend to local weather, perhaps. It is more likely we will see weather models reaching longer time-lines, already up to seven days, while climate models reach toward better weather model parameters. In effect, climate models eventually replacing the Farmer's Almanac.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #7 bwilson4web, Jan 27, 2014
    Feri likes this.
  8. Feri

    Feri Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    761
    144
    0
    Location:
    Maldon Victoria Australia
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    III
    Climate scientists and meteorologists have prediction accuracys in the high 90%s. But our politicians follow the advice of economists whose predictive modelling is less than 30% accurate. The models for our part of the world err only in predicting the rapidity of the changes.
     
    #8 Feri, Jan 27, 2014
    bwilson4web likes this.
  9. wxman

    wxman Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    619
    224
    0
    Location:
    Tennessee
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Wikipedia says the skill of NWP models is about six days (Numerical weather prediction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). Based on my experience, it's probably more like five days. Anything after that really needs to be based on ensemble trends (addressed in the referenced Wikipedia page on NWP).

    I expect NWP model skills to slowly improve as horizontal and vertical resolution are increased as more powerful computer systems permit that to happen.
     
    #9 wxman, Jan 27, 2014
    bwilson4web likes this.
  10. wxman

    wxman Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    619
    224
    0
    Location:
    Tennessee
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    I know there are some very respectable scientists who subscribe to this theory, including the current Science Advisor in the U.S. Administration.

    IMHO, that is a dubious theory though. The theory I learned about upper flow (jet stream) "waviness" is that it is caused by dissimilar velocities within that layer of the atmosphere (in simplest terms). High-speed segments of the jet stream (e.g., "jet streaks") plow into slower-moving segments of the jet stream, causing the flow to "buckle" (i.e., amplify). The greater the velocity difference, the greater the amplification. An analogy is a train running into the rear of a slower moving train, causing the train to derail and the trailing cars to buckle; the greater the differences in speed between the two trains, the greater the buckling of the derailed cars. So it's not clear to me how slowing of the jet stream would result in more "waviness" or atmospheric blocks.

    I acknowledge that it's been quite a while since I took theoretical meteorology courses, but I don't recall anything different mentioned in required training I completed while working as a NWS meteorologist/forecaster.

    The long wave configuration that's been in place over the Northern Hemisphere for the past month or so has been highly amplified (ridge axis along the western coast of North America; deep trough over the eastern half of N.A.). However, it's not unusual for long-wave patterns to persist on the order of weeks to even months. The good news is that it appears this long-wave pattern will be deamplifying by this weekend, bringing warmer (or at least not as cold) temps to the east, and the possibility of precip to portions of the west coast.
     
    #10 wxman, Jan 27, 2014
    fuzzy1 likes this.
  11. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,123
    10,048
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    More like the lower 40 or 42. A few of us are not getting any of it, to the chagrin of snow sports enthusiasts out West.

    But at least one of the national network new shows last night did pointedly acknowledge this weather distribution inequity.
     
    #11 fuzzy1, Jan 27, 2014
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)