Global Warming: loading the extreme weather dice

The odds are always against you. This is a casino we are talking about. But the odds of Don't Pass are better (even with the barred 12 (though not if they are barring 3) then the Pass line. Feel free to do the calculation if you don't believe me.

 

This is the key point I've been trying to make (maybe not very eloquently). Also, if heat and moisture were the primary factors, equatorial regions would be getting the bulk of organized severe wx/tornadoes. As I previously mention, there is a "secondary" severe wx season in the U.S. (typically November) that occurs after temps/dew points have decreased considerably from typical mid-summer values. Mid-summer is usually a minimum for organized severe wx/tornadoes between the Spring and Fall peaks.

That's not to say that severe wx isn't possible in a weak shear environment. This type of scenario favors "pulse" type thunderstorms, which have updrafts more or less vertically stacked (as opposed to tilted/rotating updrafts of supercells - "mesocyclones"). See NWS Louisville: Supercell Structure and Dynamics for more information on structure of supercells and different types of thunderstorms.

Straight-line winds from pulse storms CAN be exceptionally strong and very damaging. "Downbursts" can mimic EF-3 damage in extreme cases (Downbursts - Severe Weather Awareness). In my opinion, pulse storms would become the dominant thunderstorm structure in a scenario of polar amplification AGW.

With respect to moisture trends in the atmosphere, I agree that dew point would be a better parameter to evaluate the moisture trends than RH.

 

I agree that temperature of surface water is a better (only?) indicator of moisture trends in the atmosphere, rather than the absolute temperature of the surface layer.

Actually, this is a point I find troubling with the "warm air holds more moisture" assertion. Warm air CAN hold more moisture, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will. Temps in Phoenix are plenty warm in summer, but dew points can be in the 20s or 30s, far below saturation (saturation is reach when the dew point and sensible temperature are the same).

Furthermore, just because a column of air holds more moisture, it still needs something (a "trigger") to precipitate that moisture out. My first duty station in the NWS was in Brownsville, TX (BRO). BRO is an upper air site and the sounding that were taken there were often alarming from a thermodynamic perspective (e.g., mid-90s F surface temp, around 80 F surface dew point, precipitable water of >2 inches, less than -10 lifted index, CAPEs exceeding 5000 J/kg). However, the usual result was just scattered flat-top cumulus clouds; no significant "trigger" was available typically. Brownsville, TX, has an annual rainfall of about 25", not real impressive with that much moisture and thermodynamics around!

You theoretically could have a column of air that's totally saturated from surface to tropopause and get nothing but (maybe) light drizzle or mist. There still needs to be a mechanism to "lift" the parcel. No ascension of air = no significant wx.

 

Obviously the analogy is lost on you, and you are caught up on details not included in the text.

Don't pass bettor appears as a db to most of the craps table. You need to be a higher roller to bet don't pass and lay full odds, the only way that its better than pass with odds. Even then the odds are against you, with the house.

Now who I am talking about should be abundantly clear. Those that use grey literature to propagate that the argument that extreme weather must be caused by climate change.

You have to ask, if energy is what causes tornadoes why aren't most in the summer? Why don't we get them in Austin, but cooler places do? For an answer, check out the NOAA page. For some hand waving, you can check out some grey literature.

 

The gambling analogy was poor -- let it go.

The obvious answer to your question is that summer and Austin have other factors at play that restrain extreme events despite more energy in the atmosphere. Unless you can credibly argue that AGW will enhance restraining factors in tandem with hotter temperatures, extreme weather events are going to be more severe and/or more frequent.

It took you a decade to stop being a climate change denialist. Is this your new denialism ?

 

It is the confluence of warm air meeting cold that (in essence) causes the conditions Tht produce tornados! The reason we had a quiet spring was the abnormally cold early spring, largely because of the position of the jet stream. We are just coming to it late, and if I were to guess, we might have a more robust tornado season as a result. Time will tell.

Icarus

 

We have the fewest extreme tornadoes and extreme hurricanes in decades.
While CO2 is higher.
Yet you equate Higher CO2 with more extreme weather.
The emperor has no clothes.Yet you say they are extremely beautiful.
This movement is built on blind faith.

Sorry Global Warmists, But Extreme Weather Events Are Becoming Less Extreme - Forbes
"New data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show the past 12 months set a record for the fewest tornadoes in recorded history."
"The United States is undergoing its longest stretch in recorded history without a major hurricane strike"

 

So let's see who we ought to believe? Forbes or the literally hundreds of sources that dispute your head in the sand claim!

From NASA to the Jouranal Nature, to whole hosts of peer reviewed papers, many cited here:

Is extreme weather caused by global warming?

Sorry, but your continual reticence to accept reality is quite tiresome. My guess is that Piers Corbyn must have his beam focused on you.

Icarus

 

You choose to ignore reality.
There is less extreme weather recently with higher CO2.
Any idiot can understand that.
BTW Skeptical Science is pure BS.

 

The mention of hurricanes was timely, in that the first NOAA prediction for 2013 N Atlantic hurricanes has been posted
NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
It discusses factors contributing to high # predicted, including sea surface T

About hurricane numbers decreasing since 1995, Have a look here

TCFAQ E11) How many tropical cyclones have there been each year in the

Um, no they have not decreased.

Landfall to US (or any region) has a lot of 'random' built in it seems. Recurvature (tracks curving around to the northeast) is why they don't all hit the US, basically. Maybe there is a link between recurvature and some aspect of climate, but not known to me.

 

I guess we don't need to adjudicate here whether skeptical science (or for that matter, climate4you) are pure BS. The former offers links to published papers. Just read the papers and form your own conclusions. You don't even need to remember that you got the links at SKS.

 

Here is a graph of Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy.Um yes they have DECREASED.

 

ThAt is why I link SS, because they source the original peer reviewed papers, so thaqt one can judge for oneself...unlike a link to Forbes! (or the seemingly non existence of "politicalclimate.com"

It seems the domain with that name is for sale for $80k


Icarus

 

Dude the data quoted in Forbes is from NOAA.

 

Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity - Maue - 2011 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library
Peer reviewed.

 

^yea, that's close. Mojo's link is full of instereting stuff, like the claim that we currently have gon a record number of days since the US has been struck by a major Huricane, something like 2700 days, better than 7.5 years.( the article published in may 2013, and the imbedded link links not to NOAA, but to "What's up!).

Apparently the difference between TS and Hurricane is more than a semantic diffence to them! Please tell that to those in NJ and NY.

Now, let's venture back together though the last seven and on half years, Aug 27-29 2011, HURICANE Ike, a Cat 2 downgraded to a Cat one does major damage to New England. steeerike one,

Sept 15-18 2008 HURRICANE Ike hits Texas, and wheels into the Midwest deling death and destruction. steeerike two!

Sept 1, 2008 Guatauve hits the gulf coast as a Cat one killing at least 26. Steerike three!

Ding, ding, ding, Bonus round!

August 2006 TC Ernesto hits Florida and NC. (not sure if it ws a hurricane or not) Foul tip!

And now the big one, 2005,

October 18-24 Wilma hits Florida

sept 18-30, HURICANE Rita hits TX and LA,ONLY 119 die...Steerike 4!

Aug 25-30, Katrina, HURRICANE, hits NOLA,,need I say more? Strike out!

U.S. Hurricanes | Infoplease.com

(now, I confess I didn't count the days from Katrina to the date of the publication but I think you get the point, Mojo either can't read, or couldn't recognize a verifiable fact if it bit him in the butt, believes all that fits his world view, or all of the above.

Ignorance can be cured with education, Moronism maybe not so easy! The fact that wht he so ardently "believes" to be true, can be shown to be false with a five minute search, sort of reinforces the notion that he must be a moron!

Have a nice day!

Icarus

 

Oh, I don't know. Could a moron copy/paste from the denialist blogs with such alacrity ?

I think Mojo's problem is more a case of cognitive dissonance and trolling. He jumped on the denialist wagon years ago, and does not know how to get off. AustinGreen decided to call his years of denialism 'playing the devil's advocate.' Perhaps Mojo can copy that, or come up with another excuse for his decade of stupidity.

From my viewpoint, the only unfortunate aspect of Mojo's descent into stupidity is that he has become (probably unknowingly) part of the propaganda machine that springs into action the moment the general populace is on the verge of getting a clue. I just don't know how he is going to explain that to the next generation of his family.

 

I AM ASTOUNDED BY THE STUPIDITY HERE.
JUST PLAIN STUPIDITY.
The graph of ACE is very clear.
Only an idiot can misinterpret that.

 

Dont forget Im a far left Democrat .
But Im ashamed of you guys.
Braindead. Been smoking crack STUPID.
Lets have an intelligent discussion.Pass the crack pipe.

 

Look at yourself FOOL.
Im posting data ,and you post personal insults.
Its like a step beyond the usual strawman insults you resort to.
You have no explanation so you resort to personal insults.
You are so brainwashed.
The media has done a great job of indoctrination.