Guess October 09 Sales

It has been quite a ride. Opinions?

I'm thinking a return to pre-ZVW30 sales with a little boost from the recent oil price increase. Still, haven't seen the a big bump in gas prices that would really ignite Prius sales.

Historical data:

• 10,984 - September
• 18,886 - August
• 19,173 - July
• 12,998 - June
• 10,091 - May

Bob Wilson

Hmmm... I'm guessing about 14 or so, maybe a shade more. Just a guess though.

Doug Coleman
Prius Product Manager
Toyota Motor Sales, USA

So it increased from September? That's pretty good if it's true....

11,231 just popped into my head ???

Lets see. Huge back order in Japan and Europe. No increase in ships to Eastcoast. North Europe next allocation in Jan. 2010. No ships to Cen. Am. And what looks like short number of cars dropped on the west coast in not the normal port pattern. I give it a 13,000.

Judging from my region (near Chicago), the Sept decline is largely due to demand, not reduced supply if that's your point. After cash for clunkers, Prius inventories at all dealers near me went to almost zero. Now they all have healthy inventory levels, if anything the highest since the 2010 was rolled out. I'd guess the initial (expected) pop is over and sales will remain about average (12-13K/mo?) until there's a gas price spike again of more than $4/gal (when, not if). Discounts of $500-$1000 vs MSRP ought to be prevalent in the months ahead (helped by winter), although there are some regions where demand and therefore discounts will be less likely. But your guess is at least as good as mine...

Toyota sees U.S. auto sales above 11 million in 2010 | Industry Summits | Reuters

Tease!

October 2008, "The Prius mid-size gas-electric hybrid posted October sales of 11,804 units."


Bob Wilson

I am guessing the sales are slow and not because of the inventory. Was at my Bob Bridge Toyota in Renton on Saturday and was surprised to see over 30 2010 Priuses on the lot.

Came back home and checked online - shows 39 in stock. Bellevue and Kirkland show 41 and 46 respectively. There is no shortage anymore.

I am going to stay with my original input to the survey but reduce it to the low side of 10,000.

I have also checked on the dealers in my area that I watched closely when trying to find my car. They all now have at least four or five on their lot and not spoken for and more being shown for delivery in the next week or two. This is the first time in quite some time now.

I have the exact same guess

We have an answer:

Bob Wilson

I think Toyota goal was 100K by the end of the year... they will have to sell around 15K in the remaining 2 months, which seems pretty achievable...

The supplpy was uncomfortably low where I am in October... but November looks way better!