Higher Gasoline Prices forever in MD, DC and NoVA?

I am tentatively blaming Maryland for higher gaso costs in the region, but I invite other theories.

For many years, there has been approximately equal state+local gaso taxes in the region at 23.5 cents per gallon (Northern VA = NoVA and has about 6 cents local tax). As of 1-July 2013, Maryland has increased its gaso tax +3.5 cents/gal, and Virginia has decreased its state gasoline tax (approx. -6 cents/gal). Maryland plans future gaso tax increases every year!

Here is what I am trying to say:

So the regional status quo is now forever changed. What is the impact? Its not totally clear right now, but it looks to me like gasoline prices in the region have gone up 10-20 cents compared to June_2013, relative to the rest of the country.

My preliminary theory after some study-
Part-1: Maryland prices may have gone up more than the 3.5 cents/gal because the "pricing czars" could be looking to ahead to Maryland's promised future annual gaso tax increases.

Part-2: Several sources have advised me that the "pricing czars" will probably try to increase prices near Maryland, to prevent motorists from flocking to Virginia/DC for fill-ups.

This may explain why DC prices are not falling as much as national average in August. Worse yet, this explains why some Northern VA residents may paradoxically be seeing a gaso price increase, which is counter-intuitive since VA decreased gasoline taxes.

I am not attaching references, but there are a number of articles observing high gasoline prices in MD after July 1, and other articles about NoVA not seeing the impact of the VA gasoline tax decrease. I have asked GasBuddy.com if they could kindly add NoVA to its trend chart regions to help follow this development.

My local elected officials in NoVA tell me that they knew in advance we would not see the gaso price decrease at the pump, but it was a compromise they had to make (since the VA repubs insisted on gaso tax decrease). Elected officials believe pump prices are not influenced too much by state gaso tax changes. If a state increases gaso tax, the oil companies are forced to accept lower profit margins, on the other hand if a state decreases gasoline tax like VA did, then they expect the oil companies can charge more at wholesale in those areas.

 

I can get $3.46 for TopTier (major brand) at Annandale (I495 and Little River Tnpke), thank goodness its one of my normal stations. That is not too bad compared to you because we pay probably 20 cents more for RFG here. And we pay 6 cents NoVa tax so that puts my cheapest on a par with your cheapest. But the whole "applecart" seems upset as some of the other cheaper stations are more expensive now. Don't know why the Annandale enclave of stations is now the cheap spot.