Welcome to PriusChat

We'd love to have you join our community and participate in the conversation! Sign up for FREE today.

Sign Up

Investing in Tesla?

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by daniel, Apr 4, 2012.

Social Buttons

  1. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    Messages:
    14,399
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2004 Prius
    This thread is inspired by a similar one on the Tesla Motors Club forum. Anyone on here buying shares of Tesla? (TSLA) If so, what are your reasons?

    I owned 100 shares until recently. I bought 50 shares on each of two different occasions, and this morning I got another 25 when the price dropped to 35 and a limit order I had in executed.

    I believe Tesla is a solid company with a good product, good management, and good prospects for success. I believe the stock will go up once the Model S goes into production, baring significant problems with the car, which I think is unlikely.

    But speculating on any given company is always risky. Any number of things could go wrong. An unforeseen disaster, or another company might just win out in the end. So I never put a significant amount of money into any individual stock issue. My real investments are funds and bonds, both highly diversified.

    But just as I bought 12 shares of Toyota shortly after buying my Prius, because I like the car, and 100 shares of Panasonic because they made the battery, and I wanted to feel like I was a part owner of the company that made such a great car, so also I wanted to be a part of Tesla as an owner because I think my Tesla Roadster is the coolest thing on the road.

    So my shares are not really an investment, but more a feel-good possession. Not like a car that you can drive or a music CD that you can listen to, or a painting on my wall that I can enjoy every day as I look at it. But still something it feels nice to have because it means I am a part owner of a company I like. I'll probably never sell my shares, unless something happens to make me mad at the company (they change their focus, or I have trouble with my Roadster). And I'll probably never own more than 200 shares, and that only if the price goes down a few more points before the S goes into production.

    I just think it's a cool company, and I really like driving my car.

    So, anyone else own TSLA?
  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    Messages:
    9,448
    Likes Received:
    1,827
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    I doubt Tesla will survive, but I put better than even odds on them being gobbled up by one of the mainstream auto companies resulting in shareholder profit.
  3. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2009
    Messages:
    5,565
    Likes Received:
    1,425
    Location:
    North Yorkshire, UK
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    N/A



    That's just what I was going to say. It will be a shame though. A dynamic company until it gets taken over and absorbed into GM or Toyota or whoever. They get all the patents and legals and then Tesla disappears from the World altogether. :(
  4. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    Messages:
    14,399
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2004 Prius
    Elon Musk apparently owns enough shares to block a hostile take-over, and he seems committed enough to keep the company out of the hands of the likes of GM. Of course, I cannot see the future. But Tesla seems to have good management, and they've definitely got some really good cars in the works, as well as the Roadster on the roads.

    They might not make it, but I don't think you can write them off that easily. However, if you want to short a big pile of their stock and drive the price down temporarily, I'll appreciate the opportunity to pick up just a few more shares on the cheap.
  5. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2006
    Messages:
    5,394
    Likes Received:
    424
    Location:
    South Jersey
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    V


    If Tesla is bought out I don't believe they will disappear. Cadillac, Buick, Chevrolet, Oldsmobile, Jeep, Lincoln, Dodge and Chrysler didn't disappear because they were bought out. Olds disappeared because GM pulled the plug.

    Maybe you'll be able to see the new EV's at your local Lexus-Tesla dealer.
  6. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2009
    Messages:
    5,565
    Likes Received:
    1,425
    Location:
    North Yorkshire, UK
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    N/A


    You half answered my question with your response. Sure Tesla might not die off if taken over, but most of the car companies you've quoted may as well have died out. Chevrolet and Jeep are doing OK. Cadillac is dying out, Buick is dead unless you live in China, Lincoln is niche and Dodge and Chrysler are one in the same.

    Tesla shoud remain independent. Their dynamism will die out if they're absorbed into Toyota/Lexus and God help us if GM offer them a few billion$.

    I hate sell outs. There was a good friut smoothies company here in the UK that only sold quality, 100% fruit smoothies and had a reputation for doing the right thing. Then Coka Cola came along, offered the owners 'a good deal' and took them over. Then the trouble starts and my purchases stop.

    [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innocent_Drinks]Innocent Drinks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]
  7. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2005
    Messages:
    12,326
    Likes Received:
    1,929
    Location:
    SF Bay Area, CA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2006 Prius
    Model:
    N/A


    I wouldn't be so sure about the management. Have you watched http://priuschat.com/forums/tesla/98263-bloomberg-risk-takers-elon-musk.html? ? I didn't realize they were in such dire straits before they IPOed.

    Now I don't follow TSLA closely nor their financials closely but notice that at TSLA Income Statement | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance, they still haven't turned a profit. Last year they had $204 million in revenue yet $254 million in loss? How much longer before they stop losing money? Can they stay afloat until they turn a profit?

    edit: http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=TSLA:US goes further back.

    From http://investing.businessweek.com/r...HKD6BMJRR0M7HTOAM&docFormat=HTM&formType=10-K


    (I haven't read the whole filing, but the risk factors are worth a read. Don't be too scared off by the section. Every risk factors section I've seen in other similar SEC filings is full of all sorts of scary sounding scenarios. I'd imagine it's required by the SEC.)
  8. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    Messages:
    14,399
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2004 Prius


    According to the article you link to, the founders retain control of the company, even though Coke now owns 58% of the stock.

    Are you just angry at them for accepting money from Coke, or have the products changed for the worse?



    No, I have not watched the video, but I am aware that for a while there it was touch and go, and Tesla was on the brink of collapse. Musk personally put something like his last three million dollars into the company. That tided them over until they got some more loans.



    I think they can, with the Model S very near production. I am also well aware that Tesla has not yet turned a profit. The average business takes about five years to turn a profit, but with a company like Tesla, whose first five years or so is spent just developing their product, I think five years from first car sale to first profitable year is reasonable.

    Tesla's success is by no means assured. Any number of things could go wrong. But Eon Musk is a very smart businessman, and he has a good team with him, both management and R&D. The Roadster is a phenomenal and unique car. And while the Model S will have competition from lower-priced EVs, no BEV available today, or even any announced concept BEV, can match its range. If the quality is as good as I expect, it should do well, and they have a good chance of moving into the black in 2 or 3 years, which would be within typical range for a company of this type.

    I do not have a religious faith in Tesla. I do see an excellent product (I drive it nearly every day). And I see smart management. And I see demand for their cars. With that, I think they have a very real chance at success. Then on top of that, I like them for building a car that can be run on hydro power or solar or wind power and does not need any fossil fuel, if you get your electricity from a renewable source, as I do. Just as when I bought my 12 shares of Toyota, I want to be a part of Tesla. I do this by driving the car, and by owning a few shares of the company.

    Some people over at the Tesla Motors Club forum are investing in Tesla because they believe the company will become a big succes and they'll make a lot of money. I bought my shares not as an investment (I have too few to be considered that) but because it feels good to own a tiny part of a company that I like because they're doing something I think is the right thing. If Nissan had sold me a Leaf instead of screwing me over, I'd probably have nought a few shares of Nissan.

    But you are right to be wary. Tesla's success is by no means assured. I do think that there are worse places to invest risk capital. And I think that for risk capital, Tesla is a pretty good bet. But don't put money into it that you cannot afford to lose.
    1 person likes this.
  9. seilerts

    seilerts Battery Curmudgeon

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    3,326
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Location:
    Santa Fe, NM
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2005 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
  10. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    Messages:
    14,399
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2004 Prius
    The stock is very volatile, and the company is a start-up. That puts it in the risk-capital category. However, I think the comparison to a lottery ticket is unjustified. It's certainly not in the same category as IBM or Apple, but it's a well-run company with a good product, in an emerging field with a huge potential market in the long run. It also faces significant challenges. I personally would not put a lot of money in it, but I'm comfortable putting a little in it.

    Abu Dhabi decided to take the $113 million profit it made on the stock. The result was a small drop in price, which allowed me to buy another 25 shares a few bucks cheaper than was the price a few days ago. I have a limit order in for another 25 shares if it goes down another 50 cents from Thursday's close. I'm not sure if I'll change that limit order before I go to bed tonight.

    I'm betting a very small amount of money that TSLA will go up quite a bit once the Model S goes into production, and that the S will be successful and the price will continue to rise. If I'm wrong I won't lose enough to notice. And in any case, once I have my shares (the ones I have already, and the ones I might buy in the next little while) I'll probably never sell them because I just like the company.
  11. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    Messages:
    14,399
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2004 Prius
    Last night I lowered my limit order of 25 shares to $33.50 and this morning my order executed as the stock momentarily dipped to 33.26. I now have 150 shares, and I changed my one remaining limit order to 50 shares at $26, which is to say in all likelihood I won't be buying any more, but if it does drop way down I'll pick up another 50. After that, no more. That's as much as I'd ever hold of a single stock issue.

    Tesla is by no means a sure deal, but I believe they have what it takes to become successful in a big way.
  12. kbr0125

    kbr0125 New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2012
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    Murrieta, CA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Didnt know if any of you have read the articles on car and driver about the Tesla/toyota partnership. Im pretty sure that tesla will not fail, they have been losing money just because they have been investing into mass producing the cars, if they plan to build 20,000 like they said at the cheap model thats a nice 1.2Bil in Sales, now take out costs to produce im sure they will be left will plenty of profits, i have been investing in them as well as solar companys, but solar stock took a poop once china started to produce cheap panels. Tesla wont fail even if toyota bought them. With 15,000 customers already putting down the 5,000 holding fee, im sure they can sell the other 5,000 easly that the produce a year. Now the only reason why i dont look at the Leaf is because of the distance, now i would defently buy a tesla S. 160miles on a charge for the basic one. I dont see how this company could fail, less now that prices for gas are $4. so double the price of a leaf and get double the millage, faster car, and luxury. Not bad for the price.

    Lol, i had to update because i forgot to put in the third row racing seats, :) i got a laugh when i saw this reminds me of my grandparents old station wagons.

    Tesla Partners with Toyota, Will Build Electric Vehicles at NUMMI Plant in California
    We Visit the Tesla Factory, and It Looks A Lot Like a Real Car Company
  13. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    Messages:
    14,399
    Likes Received:
    1,496
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Your Vehicle Year:
    2004 Prius
    The first article you cite is two years old, and the second is six months old.

    I believe Tesla will succeed. But I don't believe it's certain. There are still challenges ahead. They must bring off the Model S without hitches. Any serious problems and all those reservation-holders could back out. $5,000 is a big deposit, but it's refundable. The first year's production, or even two, will be easy because of all the pend-up demand for a car of this sort. But how well it performs in the real world will determine how well it does going forward. Gas is going nowhere but up, but another economic downturn will hurt all car makers, and Tesla is increasingly going to face competition from Nissan and other companies. 160 miles is double what the Leaf gets, but the price is roughly double as well, and people who do not need to go over 70 miles per day might not want to pay the higher price. And Nissan has talked of a bigger battery pack which would compete.

    There are too many unknowns to be certain of anything.

    But Tesla has great technology, a modern factory on the cheap, and very smart managers and engineers. I now have 150 shares, since my order at 33.50 executed (if I had waited, I could have gotten that last 25 at 22.50 but that's the market: you can never know what the price will do). I now have a limit order for 50 more shares at $26. I doubt it will go that low, and if it doesn't I'm happy with my 150 shares, but if it does I'll take advantage of it.

    I'm mostly invested for income, not growth, and Tesla is a growth company with a very great potential to grow considerably, but also significant risk. So I won't hold more than 200 shares, and I'll be happy with 150 if it doesn't go down to 26 again.
Similar Threads: Investing Tesla
Forum Title Date
Nissan Hybrids and EVs Nissan investing $1.7Bill into Tenessee plant, & on Wednesday announced 150,000 motors annually Jul 22, 2011
Environmental Discussion GM Chevy Investing $40 Million in clean solar, wind, clean energy in U.S. Nov 19, 2010
Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News Renault seen investing up to $1 bln in electric car May 12, 2008
Fred's House of Pancakes Investing in Toyota Aug 1, 2007
Environmental Discussion Clean Tech Investing-the Economic Opportunity of the Century Jan 4, 2007