Lithium-ion batteries - The bubble bursts

I'm using an old IBM Thinkpad with a really crappy LiON battery.

Bob Wilson

 

will this be good for the consumer?

 

Is this guy just another self aggrandizing Art Spinella type? I could be wrong, but after looking over his web page it seems the OP's author quotes no other sources other than his self :

Press Room – Advanced Automotive Batteries

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bad... Chapter 11's all around.

 

I would caution that I'm not so sure GM and other 'engine committed' manufactures have turned over a new leaf. This could also be a bit of misinformation that emphasizes a weakness without weighing the actual market growth. Remember the 'Prius battery replacement problem' that included 'batteries in the land fills' and 'nickel to battery problems.'

It is not that they are lying as much as like the CNW 'Dust-to-Dust' report, such claims need independent sources.

Bob Wilson

 

Gasoline's energy density is still many times higher than the best Li-Ion battery.

"Gasoline thus has about 100 times the energy density of a lithium-ion battery. This difference in energy density is partially mitigated by the very high efficiency of an electric motor in converting energy stored in the battery to making the car move: it is typically 60-80 percent efficient. The efficiency of an internal combustion engine in converting the energy stored in gasoline to making the car move is typically 15 percent (EPA 2012). With the ratio about 5, a battery with an energy storage density 1/5 of that of gasoline would have the same range as a gasoline-powered car. We are not even close to this at present."

The Back Page

Three years ago at a symposium on lithium-air batteries at IBM Almaden there was great optimism. The symposium “Scalable Energy Storage: Beyond Lithium Ion” had as a working message: “There are no fundamental scientific obstacles to creating batteries with ten times the energy content–for a given weight–of the best current batteries.”

Optimism had all but vanished this year at the fifth conference in the scalable-energy-storage series in Berkeley, California. The symposium announcement reads: “Although new electric vehicles with advanced lithium ion batteries are being introduced, further breakthroughs in scalable energy storage, beyond current state-of-the-art lithium ion batteries, are necessary before the full benefits of vehicle electrification can be realized.”

 

With BEVs and less so, PHEVs, it's one of those bittersweet type things, like, oh, cool, no tailpipe, zero emissions (how many people don't want zero emisions at tailpipe?) but ....

ewww, it's small, OMG! (Honda Fit) look at that price tag $36k (most are not even aware of $7.5k tax credit, they don't show that at car shows), and then....

what? 82 miles range? Is this some kind of joke?

Then 'they' mosey 15 feet over to a Honda Accord, 1/3 larger than the Fit, starts at $22,000 dollars, everyone knows they go 400 miles on tank of readily available gas which they can still afford.

If an EV arrived the size and refinement of a Honda Civic (sorry CODA), had 200 miles of EPA range (which can degrade to 75 or 80% in 8 years?) and cost $27,000 nicely equipped, even without tax credit, no compromise in interior room or trunk, then BEV might liftoff.

 

I hate to say it, but the Ford C-Max Energi did not impress me at the auto show ...

the cargo area is severely decreased by the highly raised floor due to the massive battery. It's expensive and shows only 43 MPG in hybrid mode.

Prius Plug-in looks like a Much better package than Energi. I hope Energi sells, but I'd be surprised if it catches on.

Chevrolet had at least a couple Volts at the show for test drive yesterday, and the rep did a good job showing the car. It was a neat car, but little too small for me and of too expensive of course. I liked driving it though.

 

Hope we will be hearing from you on how you like the PiP, usb. Especially for those of us in the areas that PiPs have yet to reach.

 

It is kind of crazy and misleading this talk of bubbles bursting are.

1) Auto Lithium batteries in the US had sales more than triple. If the bubble burst, then sales would have decreased. Automotive lithium battery sales are projected to increase many times over the next decade.

2) When the various governments made loans and grants all the analysts assumed we would get to over capacity. There is some crazy talk about Nissan and LG not using their American factories. Its because they have just been built. Nissan just started their plant, LG still is shipping from Korea.

There are 2 losers that were predicted by just about every analyst.
Ener1's plan to make city cars seemed like a huge long shot from the beginning. Nissan's projections for sales were wildly high to even the biggest EV supporters. In the US Nissan just won't staff the factory to produce more batteries than they need. It will have to take big losses on their factories in Europe and Japan where they are missing numbers by much more than America.

A123 had very good technology, but seemed to have bad management and manufacturing. The Karma repairs shot the last of its cash, and its poor bankruptcy made it sell itself to China Inc. Not much over capacity from A123, but a sad end to a government subsidized start up. The odds were against A123, but its demise was much quicker than many expected. That leaves the big unexpected loser, Panasonic. It has already written off at least $2B from its lithium business in Japan and China. It projected much higher sales. That hurts other Battery makes as Panasonic seems like they may deeply discount batteries for the next couple of years. This may help Toyota, Tesla, and Ford's plug-in cars as they buy batteries from Panasonic.

 

Yep, the energy density issue needs to be improved with the Li-ion batteries. Range, lower costs, weights, reduced size all need to be addressed. This is an ongoing process, but needs to keep moving forward in order to make a dent in the ICE captivated markets.

DBCassidy

 

There's a lot of stuff that needs to be improved, but cost would be enough right now to support volume sales, just by shifting a lot of hybrid to plug-in hybrid.

It would take a significant increase in density to add volume the other way, by adding a lot of high-capacity vehicles in commercial BEV.