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Featured March 2016 Dashboard

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Apr 5, 2016.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    As always, an excellent report from Jeff Cobb:
    March 2016 Dashboard
    Model 16_03 16_02 16_01 15_12
    1 Prius Liftback 8130 7169 6333 10153
    2 Ram Pickup Diesel 4729 4153 3193 4531
    3 RAV4 3073 2462 1973 1430
    4 Model S 3000 1900 1300 3202
    5 Prius C 2607 2263 1763 2861
    6 Fusion Hybrid 2057 1764 1373 1960
    7 Sonata 1884 1588 964 1138
    8 Volt 1865 1126 996 2114
    9 Camry Hybrid 1746 1599 1256 1861
    10 Model X 1500 500 400 177
    11 Prius v (lowercase v for the Prius v wagon) 1331 1112 1205 2040
    12 Leaf 1246 930 755 1347
    13 Fusion Energi 1238 932 581 1058
    14 C-Max Hybrid 1092 880 637 837
    15 CT200h 972 762 622 1464
    16 ES Hybrid 894 633 622 1443
    17 RX 400 / 450 h 886 752 790 1493
    18 Avalon Hybrid 776 590 583 933
    19 C-Max Energi 610 490 350 579
    20 MKZ 608 585 491 867
    21 Colorado Diesel 578 403 108
    22 Highlander Hybrid 492 396 375 516
    23 Optima Hybrid 436 386 469 870
    24 Range Rover Sport 408 308 272 417
    25 500e 373 195 217
    26 Grand Cherokee Diesel 370 308 263 420
    27 Q50 Hybrid 335 202 175 281
    28 A3 Plug In 332 248 327
    29 i3* 332 248 182 1422
    30 XV Crosstrek Hybrid 329 278 261 425
    31 X5 313 345 181 607
    32 Sonata Plug In 275 200 175
    33 X5 Diesel 263 169 25 207
    34 Spark 252 216 139 152
    35 NX Hybrid 251 236 245 364
    36 Canyon Diesel 244 225 50 0
    37 Cayenne S E-Hybrid 244 172 146 137
    38 Range Rover 239 301 366 387
    39 QX60 Hybrid 195 137 119 249
    40 X3 Diesel 192 130 60 186
    41 XC90 Plug In 178 176 226 74
    42 Civic Hybrid 166 143 161 263
    43 CR-Z 163 128 192 316
    44 3-Series Diesel 160 119 69 247
    45 5-Series Diesel 152 67 51 215
    46 GLE-Class Diesel 123 86 117 215
    47 GL-Class Diesel 111 146 149 284
    48 Focus EV 110 81 66 96
    49 ELR 104 91 67 135
    50 i8 89 54 32 656
    51 Pathfinder Hybrid 87 72 65 84
    52 e-Golf 86 198 328 609
    53 Lacrosse Hybrid 83 87 118 145
    54 Soul EV 79 60 81 96
    55 forTwo EV 70 54 48 179
    56 E-Class Diesel 69 36 52 82
    57 B-Class Electric 66 37 58 97
    58 Cruze Diesel 53 35 41 69
    59 Accord Hybrid 51 68 71 223
    60 Jetta Hybrid 47 39 46 65
    61 Promaster Van Diesel 33 30 21 43
    62 Panamera S E-Hybrid 23 33 27 16
    63 RLX Hybrid 19 12
    64 S550 Plug In 12 36 19 35
    65 Q70 Hybrid 12 10 10 16
    66 GS 450h 8 5 5 3
    67 GLK Class Diesel 7 10 11 24
    68 Regal Hybrid 7 7 3 8
    69 Prius Plug In 7 6 10 22
    70 Q5 Hybrid 5 0 3 13
    71 Impala Hybrid 4 4 12 12
    72 LS 600h 4 2 3 3
    73 Insight 2 0 19 22
    74 Malibu Hybrid 2
    75 i 1 5 2 9
    76 ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) 1 0 1 7
    77 E400H 1
    78 ML Class Diesel 0 17 5 16
    79 Cayenne Diesel 0 0 18 76
    80 7-Series Diesel 0 0 2 14
    81 Civic (CNG) 0 0 1 25
    82 7-Series ActiveHybrid 0 0 1 1


    The graphs:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    • RAV4 - excellent growth riding the SUV wave
    • Model S and X - folks trying to get those $7.5K Federal Tax credits (hummm)
    • Prius c - nice recovery
    • 2016 Prius - doing well along with the model-end sales of the Gen-3
    Bob Wilson

    ps. Thx @telmo744. Thx @austingreen, will fix graphs later.
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Apr 5, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2016
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  2. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    You have duplicate months ;)
     
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  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Of note the Tesla model S sales going up have nothing to do with folks rushing to get tax credits. Nissan was the closest to running out and leaf sales were low. Now chevy is the closest to running out after a good month for the gen II volt, they have passed nissan.

    Tesla is production constrained, not demand constrained. They mentioned in their quarterly report that they had trouble getting some parts for the Model X which shares manufacturing with the model S. They shifted production to more model S. They missed there number for the quarter, but are now getting more X parts.
    Tesla Falls Short Of Q1 Delivery Guidance, Blames "Hubris" With Model X

    hybridcars likely underestimated model S sales and they probably were between 3400 (goodcarbadcar) and 3990 (insideevs). This puts them in 3rd behind the prius liftback and ram diesel, and ahead of the rav4 hybrid.

    Tesla's best month in the US should always be december. Drops should occur the first 2 months of the quarter and spike in the third as this is how they manage US/international shipments. I don't think model S will hit these levels again until december.

    With improvements in manufacturing, model S should move from production constrained to sales constrained this year. Model X will still be construction constrained as they struggle to fufill old orders.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    almost 20,000 toyota's in march, not too shabby.
     
  5. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Japan March 2016 Sales
    #1 Toyota Prius - 31,434
    #2 Toyota Aqua - 23,314
    #3 Honda Fit - 15,545
    #4 Nissan Note - 13,684
    #5 Toyota Sienta - 12,890

    Japan February 2016 Sales
    #1 Toyota Prius - 19,010
    #2 Toyota Aqua - 14,010
    #3 Honda Fit - 10,013
    #4 Nissan Note - 9,800
    #5 Toyota Sienta - 8,308

    Japan January 2016 Sales
    #1 Prius Toyota - 21,036
    #2 Aqua Toyota - 12,720
    #3 Sienta Toyota - 9,814
    #4 Note Nissan - 8,335
    #5 Fit Honda - 7,291
     
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  6. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Here's Jeff Cobb's take on the hybrid sales

    To quote bisco, "not too shabby" but of course hybrids down due, one the one hand, to low gaso prices. and on the other hand, generous incentives on Plug-ins

    When Volt did well in March, I was wondering if CA buyers/leasers were banking on new green HOV stickers. If so Prius Prime should do well too in that case.

    >>as of today we have confirmation of proposed CA bill to extend green HOV stickers
     
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  7. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  8. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  9. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    OK I see we are talking only LEXUS and EU like's it Lexi more than Prii
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    that sounds right, seems like toyota doesn't push prius that hard there, or auris?
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Somehow chart looks fishy.

    Hybrid sales in US 2015 were 427 thousand in the US in 2015 10% PHEV. I don't know what the 38,540 was. Is that a single month?

    Toyota and Lexus were 209 thousand in 2015 in europe (includes lots of countries not just eu28. If they had 80% market share that would be 261 thousand or about 61% of US sales. If you have a better guestimate of euopean sales please bring it.

    If chart is lexus only, its pretty worthless for understanding the hybrid market.
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    lexus only.
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Autoline Daily

    THE SHRINKING GREEN CAR SEGMENT

    Even though automakers must sell a higher mix of hybrids and plug-ins to meet fuel efficiency and emissions regulations, fewer car buyers are interested in buying them. Sales of those vehicles are down nearly 12% for the first quarter in the American market. Hybrid sales fell 13%, mainly due to a 30% drop of the Toyota Prius. EV sales fell 36% mainly caused by declines at Tesla, and big drops with the BMW i3, Nissan Leaf and VW Golf electric. And yet, sales of plug-in hybrids posted a big 56% increase. That was mainly due to more models coming into the segment, including the Mercedes S-Class and C-Class, the Hyundai Sonata, Audi A3, BMW X5 and Volvo XC90. Even so, sales of “green cars” only account for a little more than 2% of the overall market which has to worry automakers because they continue to lose market share.

    U.S. Green Car Sales Q1, 2016
    Segment 2015 2016 Change
    1 Hybrid 84993 73713 -13%
    2 EV 16214 10366 -36%
    3 Plug-In 7727 12104 +56%
    So I posted back:
    Kudos for including numbers in the Green Car table as percentages can be misleading. So my Web page link is to a table with all the raw numbers for the past four months. However, a lump of coal for “. . . mainly due to a 30% drop of the Toyota Prius.”

    The reason is the RAV4 hybrid came out this past quarter and has seen sales skyrocket:
    1430 – Dec 2015
    1973 – Jan 2016
    2462 – Feb 2016
    3073 – Mar 2016 (now third highest in list)

    We think the RAV4 cannibalized Prius v (the big one) sales.

    Two other observations, this past quarter saw the end of the Gen-3 Prius and initial sales of the Gen-4. So we’re seeing a transition between models with the sales numbers:

    10153 – Dec 2015
    6333 – Jan 2016
    7169 – Feb 2016
    8130 – Mar 2016

    There was the steel plant explosion in Japan that halted Prius production for a week.

    The 2016 Prius in North America is not perfect. Some of the six bundles did not include desirable options (i.e., 110 VAC inverter, e-rear wheel drive, automatic braking for all of them.) Best of all, the small sun visors and styling ensures we don’t have to worry about the lead-footed taking our Prius away and driving up the cost.

    Thanks to @UsedToLoveCars who gave us a 'heads up' on the snark '30%' quote. We'd vivisected it well before Autoline Daily walked into it.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #13 bwilson4web, Apr 13, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2016
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  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i thought tesla was up?
     
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    It is big time. Don't let that stop autoline. Model s is up 35% and model X is new so up 87%
     
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wonder if they meant leaf? are bev's really down 36% to date?
     
  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    No. They aren't.
    March 2016 Dashboard
    bev's down -0.6%, phevs up 59.8% yoy first quarter but the tesla's are probably under counted and hybrid cars will correct to a gain in bevs and phevs.
    Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
     
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  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I don't follow the EVs closely so I try not to defend EV sales . . . ignorance not malice. However, comments are open at AutoLine daily and does not require anything but an e-mail address . . . no registration or SPAM. Regardless, the discussion continued.

    Without quoting the source comments, this is my latest posting:

    #13 – The false ‘green-ness’ challenges trace back to a discredited and withdrawn, Sunday Mail article. It used 1970s photos to claim the Prius traction batteries caused the Sudbury nickel mine to look like the moon, 30 years earlier. It also neglected that 1% of the nickel went into Prius batteries with the vast majority going into high temperature metals. After the Sudbury lawyers contacted the Sunday Mail, the lie was withdrawn to be replaced by rumors used to fool the unwary. (FYI, I still have my shovel looking for landfills full of Prius batteries because they have so much recycle value!)


    #15 – exactly, MPG is another car feature like paint color, seat covers, or the audio system … car ‘bling’. Wanting better fuel efficiency is different from buying it. So when someone criticizes the ‘styling’, it is cover like saying,’I don’t like you and you’re ugly.’


    We are seeing early 2016 Prius buyers whose styling skepticism evaporates when filling the tank saves the cost of dinner … stimulus–response.

    Posting Prius 'fan-boy' comments is not meant to persuade as much as stand up to the anti-Prius bullies who lie like a cheap rug. When they see their nonsense is punctured so easily, the scruff lightens up and we can discuss facts and data. Funnily enough, I find more quality engineering in car advocacy forums because they understand the terminology.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  19. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    +38% hybrid sales: Toyota Motor Europe sales in the first quarter of 2016 are greener than ever Automotive World
    • "Toyota Motor Europe sold over 241,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2016, +5.1% increase versus last year
    • Hybrid sales rose 38% versus the same period last year, representing 30% of sales
    • Record sales for Lexus in Europe in the first quarter of over 18,000 units in Q1 2016, +16% versus last year
    • Built-in-Europe Toyota models continue to perform strongly, reaching 72% of Toyota sales, an increase of 1% point versus last year"
     
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  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Hey bisco asked, yes autoline got the numbers wrong, they often do. I don't really feel like respoinding to autoline, lots of tesla haters that have lost money betting against just will get upset. If the model 3 comes out well, autoline will show it love, and I probably will only know from others reposting.

    Good luck in your defense of the prius sales. To me they are pretty disapointing, but I mainly blame toyota's inventory and pricing, not lack of possible demand.