The PIP will lose market share in 2013 to the VOLT and be overtaken by the Tesla

Pretty conservative considering they sold about 22,000(?) last year. However, they also have a lot more competition this year and buyers have many more choices.
I also hesitate to call the Volt an EV. It is a great solution and it is a great introduction to those that haven't experienced the joys of electric drive.
I know a number of Volt drivers who have found the advantages of EVs so compelling their Volt ownership has served as a gateway to a full EV

Bottom line though is that competition is good for the consumer! As more companies start offering plug ins you get a greater variety of range, efficiency, etc which allows more and more people to get a plug in that works for their driving needs.

 

Global? That's just a US perspective, with US counts only. Disregarding sales in Japan is typical, despite the fact that what happens there influences production decisions.

As for no PIP growth, based on what? Awareness increase alone will contribute to it, even without any expansion into any of the other 35 states. Seeing more charging-stations will too. The absense of information about MPG following depletion is a dead giveaway as well.

Predictions don't seem to have any real substance for some, which is unfortunate based on what we've seen so far. Gauging demand has always been a challenge. The introduction of a plug makes it even more difficult.

 

JMD, the reason the PiP sold less than the Volt has nothing to do with its lack of range.
It was the PiP's initial year. Not only that but it still isn't officially available in many states (not sure why Toyota is dragging its heels on that).

The PiP also enjoys the advantage of being able to ride the coat tails of the Prius and is not much of a change (people like the comfortable same old same old).

John, you continue to amaze me. You also ignored the numbers from Japan when you shortened the time to become accepted from the articles 6 years to 4 years. I am fine with that, but you can't then turn around and cause someone else of ignoring the same numbers you are ignoring.

 

Yes. My cycling friend took delivery of his Model S last week. My son will claim "his" Volt in May leaving me with a empty spot in the garage.

 

Since the topic was market acceptance here, it made no sense to include what happened there. You didn't answer my "where did the 2 or 3 year" question anyway. So, we're both left with lack of specifics. Global?

Demand predictions are as accurate as predicting the price of gas. There's no way to know how the market will react when there's no way to nail down such a fundamental variable.

Predictions have been off by such a hugh margin in the past, what does it matter? It always boils down to what needs are, not what people feel in their gut will happen. Necessity wins in the long run. Want gets a low priority.

 

I answered your 2-3 year question in the thread in which you asked me the question. For your convenience...

.
But that seems off topic as that was about what has happened and this thread is about predictions.

I do agree with you that predictions are inherently suspicious.
However, I would disagree with you about wants vs needs.
How many people do you see driving vehicles that fit their needs, but not their wants?
How many sunroofs are out there, even in Minnesota
How many vehicles sized much larger than the drivers need?
How many big trucks capable of towing a boat, which is only used to do so twice a year?

No, I would say we are a long ways from buying vehicles solely based on needs.

 

Oh, and frankly I don't know if the OP is talking about global market or USA market (which I suspect is what you are asking?). However, I don't agree in either case. I don't think the PiP will loose market share. However, I think the PiP could have gained more market share than they will if they had a greater EV range.

It again, that is just my guess

 

That most definitely wasn't my point, nor was the question.

Starting over (because I'm done with the prior approach) is that need is a collection of priorities. Vehicles will continue to introduce new enticements. Those new wants are want will replace the prior, since need won in the end and they are no longer available. Priorities will shift. It's an endless cycle, progressively improving, but never an absolute solution. There will always be both to some degree.

That's been a key to the success with Prius.

 

Tesla just achieved their target production rate of 400/wk for the Model S and now they are starting to focus on the challenge of producing a new lower cost model at the 4000/wk production rate. The Model S is using 20% of their factory and they want to fit 10x the production volume of this new model into the remaining space, or only 4X the space.

They would also like to bring battery production inhouse, perhaps key in achieving the price points for the new higher volume model.

 

clearly, the author has no basis for the numbers except his own intuition.

 

Boy, the discussion on Prius Chat earlier than four years ago were so completely different then what we are seeing now. Here were some of the topics back then:

1) Lots of discussion about the dangers of putting fire happy LiIon batteries in cars.
2) Lots of discussion about how to get an electric car by either EV conversions or (re)purchase of one of the few EV made for CA (such as the EV Rav4). Those discussion were all "fueled" by a complete lack of ANY true production EV.
3) Lots of discussion about how to add third party batteries to a Prius to make it an PHEV. Not a trivial or cheap undertaking.

Look at how quaint those (previously) serious discussion are now. We actually have EV and PHEV choices today!

The situation may be less than desirable, but not too long ago it was barren.

 

Keep in mind that making cars is not always the source of the profits. TFS is the money maker for Toyota.

 

Agreed. In 2006 we were asking "who killed the electric car?" and not a single manufacturer even had "plans" to make a plug in. We have come very far indeed.....

Adoption rate of plug ins is very consistent with hybrids and other new technology. I think we are right on track.

As far as 2013 PIP sales being about the same in 2013? Hogwash.... With the PIP only being available in limited markets last year, there is no way PIP sales will not be higher this year..

 

I think it was a forced divorce as part of the restructuring. GMAC made a lot of mortgages and had a lot of development land in thier portfolio (I know because I had to bid against them for the ranch next door).

 

month to month might be steady ... their last announcement didn't indicate expanding the PiP into other states anytime soon, instead they punted to later in 2013, maybe....