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UK Daily Mail deliberately distorts Jones interview

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by chogan2, Feb 15, 2010.

  1. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    #1 chogan2, Feb 15, 2010
  2. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    I amazed he would even be interviewed. He will be lucky if he is not eventually prosecuted.
     
    #2 malorn, Feb 15, 2010
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The content of the BBC interview will depend a lot on one's thoughts on the matter, going in.

    Jone's future is of course a matter of interest, but perhaps even more so that of CRU and its temperature data sets. Many are already aware that those are being opened up. The CRU website itself is being reconstructed. We can watch:

    Climatic Research Unit
     
    #3 tochatihu, Feb 15, 2010
  4. KCobby

    KCobby Member

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    I read that Daily Mall article as well but found this interesting:

    "Mr Harrabin [ed. the BBC reporter interviewing Phil Jones] told Radio 4’s Today programme that, despite the controversies, there still appeared to be no fundamental flaws in the majority scientific view that climate change was largely man-made."
     
    #4 KCobby, Feb 19, 2010
  5. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    Ah, that's just so stutifying boring, actually telling the truth.

    Vastly better to ignore what "statistically significant" means, then twist words to push your propaganda.

    Here's my lesson in how to generate propaganda, in three easy steps.

    1) Find a barrel full of fish, so you can shoot one.

    I downloaded the publicly-available GISS annual data. I ran a regression to get the trend for every 15 year period, for the entire dataset, from 2009 back to the start of the data (1880). I find that, 61% of the time, there is no statistically significant warming trend.

    AHA! So, if I randomly choose a start year, I have a better than 60% chance of finding "no statistically significant warming". In a 15 year trend.

    Not good enough, you say.

    2) Cherry-pick your data.

    Start with 2009 and work backwards. Try different lengths of trends. In GISS, every trend starting in 1996 or earlier yields a positive and statistically significant time trend. So, if you use GISS and use the most recent (2009) annual values, ... the statement about "no statistically significant warming since 1995" is not correct.

    Oops. Better make sure that question gets asked before the 2009 data were finalized, because 2008 was a cold year. Try that again, starting in 2008. Damnation, even if I start in 2008, I still find that every trend starting 1996 or earlier shows statistically significant warming. So you still can't say that.

    OK, then don't ask Americans that question, let's see what the British data show. Do the same thing with Hadcrut3v annual data. With the British data, working back from 2009, the first year at which the warming becomes statistically significant is 1994.

    AHA: GOT THE BASTARDS. Ask the dude from CRU whether or not there has been statistically significant global warming since 1995.

    3) Then spin the answer for all its worth.

    Even though Jones actually gave a decent, complete answer to the question. Because the audience you're targeting isn't smart enough to understand any of that. Or doesn't care.
     
    #5 chogan2, Feb 19, 2010
    2 people like this.
  6. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    #6 chogan2, Feb 19, 2010
    2 people like this.
  7. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    For a good synopsis of the state of the British print media, consult:

     
    #7 tripp, Feb 20, 2010
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