West Nile Virus vs Global Warming

bwilson4web · Aug 23, 2012

Ordinarily I would not cite this source but even a 'blind pig finds an acorn now and then:'

Health officials nationwide are bracing for a sharp escalation in West Nile virus cases as the disease peaks over the next six weeks. They worry that this year's high case count could be just a taste of the future, as changing weather patterns allow the mosquitoes that carry the deadly disease to flourish.

Lyle Petersen, director of CDC's Division of Vector-borne Infectious Diseases, said the agency has learned that "hot weather seems to promote West Nile virus outbreaks."
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Source: U.S. health officials brace for spike in West Nile cases – USATODAY.com

I've long been aware of the impact for northern migration of warm weather critters. Here is one of the more credible sources of popular news:

The shifts in the range of species and the fact that the shifts are moving faster have huge implications," explains Frank Lowenstein, who heads the Nature Conservancy's efforts to demonstrate how natural systems can help humans adapt to global warming.

For instance, a large body of research has shown that bark beetles are thriving under warmer conditions in the Rockies and are devastating large swaths of lodgepole pine forests there. But the bugs also have been migrating north toward Canada.

. . .

The new study involved combing formal scientific papers documenting changes in the ranges of plants and animals on time scales ranging from several decades to more than a century. Over the past 40 years, the species covered by the study have moved to higher latitudes at an average rate of about 11 miles a decade. Those who moved up instead of out migrated to higher altitudes at an average of 36 feet per decade.

These are hardly expressway speeds. Team leader Chris Thomas, with the University of York, calculates that the average pace at which plants and animals are shifting poleward is about eight inches an hour.

But, he adds, that's "every hour of the day, for every day of the year. This has been going on for the last 40 years and is set to continue for at least the rest of this century."
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Source: Climate change: Species climbing higher and migrating north, study says - CSMonitor.com

Using critters as a historical temperature analog is risky when a single species is used. A single gene mutation and all bets are off but this is mitigated by using multiple species. A genetic change increasing the temperature range is unlikely to happen concurrently across multiple species. Still, we can thank Lysenko who proved crop species have maximum temperature ranges . . . and filled a lot of graves.

Bob Wilson

walter Lee · Aug 23, 2012

FWIW West Nile Virus cases have jumped in the USA with about half of them in Texas. The CDC thinks it will spike in August to September and then drop off as temperatures drop. Biologist are already connecting the trend toward increase global temperatures with a shift in animal habitat and migratory behavior, e.g. fish, whales, sharks, seals, birds, and polar bears. As climate changes become more or less permanent expect changes in the fauna.

tochatihu · Aug 23, 2012

Lysenko did that? "Even a blind pig..."

But seriously, the ecological literature presents many examples of plants and animals that are migrating rapidly, others slowly. etc. It really is the flavor of the month, research wise.

But this is a WNV thread so I hope it fills up with new information about that. After the Dallas spraying there has not been much mention in the media that I watch.

Virus found in all states except Vermont (per wiki) which makes me think that the Vermonters are just not looking hard enough

If you encounter a dead bird, no touchee...

West Nile Virus vs Global Warming

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