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Will Nissan sell 20,000 leafs in 2012?

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Apr 5, 2012.

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  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Nissan exec: Automaker 'unlikely' to double U.S. Leaf sales in '12 | The Detroit News | detroitnews.com



  2. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Not an expert on Leaf, but here's my take ....

    No, not this year.

    I was quite surprised last October to hop over to San Leandro Nissan while Honda was 'reprogramming' the ECU on my Accord Coupe...

    they had 3 Leafs in stock with their small dealership, all available for sale. I didn't think that was a good sign ... aren't those things all supposed to be presold with buyers drooling to get one?

    Then the price goes from $32.xk to over $35k for '12. iirc, they added heated seat, wheel and QC port to base model. check that.

    BEV requires lot of commitment in money (pay full cost of car ,get tax credits later), must have L2 installed and place to use it at home. Must get to know charging opportunities out there. Some people have more time and money on hand to do these things. Most do not until it becomes more common, quite a few years from now.

    I think PHV is a better step to plug-in vehicles, but obviously they are expensive. It's tough to justify a regular hybrid, but people like them. You don't come out ahead financially with PHV, but certain people will buy them because they like them.
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I agree, and it seems bad form for the Sales guy to correct the marketing guy, when the marketing guy is the one telling the truth.

    Some more information
    Nissan CEO On Leaf Sales: Take The Long View, It Will Happen



    That yen-dollar exchange explains the price hike and lower shipments, but not why there are cars on lots.



    I don't know why car companies can't shoot straight. Why is he saying this summer when really the impact of american manufacturing isn't going happen until 2013.
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    no wonder dealers act like they do.
  5. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...so long as the EV tax credits stay in force, sounds like there could be a Leaf buying opportunity in 2013-2015 time frame if they are able to offer low costs due to all the federal assists.
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The federal assistance and lower american labor and parts cost should drop Nissan's costs a great deal compared to the ones being shipped from japan. But we have no idea how much they are losing on each one today. Which means we don't know if prices will drop, or whether Nissan will just lose less on each one.
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Nissan says sales will pick up in September. Is it to hold shipments until the 2013 is out?

    Nissan turning a new Leaf in 2012, offers big upgrades to the little electric



  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Gee I duno ... who should I believe ... the digital trends blogger guy ... or Mark Perry, the director of product and advanced planning for Nissan Americas ... who, BTW at a recent Green Car Congress talk, used the following display presentation. See Pg 7 - bullet point II:

    http://www.autonews.com/Assets/html/green-car-conference/_pdf/Mark-Perry-Presentation.pdf

    You'd think after Nissan's very own mouthpiece guy said it enough times ... again & again ... the blogger guys would go a little easy on the "the 6.6kWh charger hasn't been confirmed" uncertainty thingy. Maybe it keeps the blogger peeps coming back for more. "Stay tuned ... 'till we really REALLY really know for sure!!" ;)
    .
  9. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    My local nissan dealer still has their first and only 2011 still sitting on the lot. Not plugged in and no public charger either. Even in ideal conditions, 73 mile range won't work in these parts as distances are too great. And now they got another 2012. :rolleyes:

    I'd love to be pure EV but it's still too early for me. At maximum, I need 150 miles per charge at 70 mph hwy in strong winds and hot temps. For reference, those conditions in my Prius net me 39-44 mpg.
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I trust that Jones was the only one telling the truth, Nissan won't sell 20K leafs in 2012. I trust Perry about as far as I can throw him. This is the link from the bloggers link
    Nissan to debut improved Leaf in December | The Detroit News | detroitnews.com


    Summer normally in car talk means June, July, and August, so we will see soon, if perry is a lier. Do you think one of those months will hit 2000? I am expecting that the head of nissan is right and at least april and may only have 600-700/month. But he is the spokes model of the day, and only time will tell.



    All that slide says is planned, the blogger just says not commuted. I would say its likely that the 2013 has the 6.6kWh charger. I mean why shouldn't it. The bulk of the infrastructure is for those chargers, why shouldn't the leaf get charged in 3 hours instead of 6. But Perry was running down changes in the 2013 model with Detroit news, why didn't he mention the new charger. That article is much more recent than your slide.
  11. Skoorbmax

    Skoorbmax Senior Member

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    It won't sell 20,000 units this year. It's still really a toy (and a damn expensive one), more so than the Volt because it requires extremely careful use, or at least would for most people. Paying $25-30k for a vehicle that is going to cause real range issues for a lot of people is a very difficult proposition. It has an EPA range of 58 miles if following the Nissan-recommended 80% charge for long life on the battery. In winter conditions this can fall precipitously below 50.

    I would still absolutely buy one, but not at anywhere near its current price.
  12. Four Magic Acres

    Four Magic Acres New Member

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    Our Nissan Leaf is our primary driver. We take it everywhere, everyday.
    http :// visualization.geblogs.com/visualization/evs/
    We use the Prius as the backup and have very few miles on it since the Leaf arrived.
    1 person likes this.
  13. seilerts

    seilerts Battery Curmudgeon

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    It's very common for a family to have 2-3 cars. The Leaf definitely fills the daily beater commuter car niche. Four Magic Acres is not the only user here to have a Leaf and a Prius. The range limitation of the Leaf is only a problem if you are trying to make do with one car, or have a long commute.

    While I think that the Leaf has suffered due to lack of disposable income in this poor economy, they also face a huge challenge in having to compete against the forthcoming Tesla Model S.
  14. Keiichi

    Keiichi Active Member

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    Well, I would say long commute or plan to travel extensively with it. Until the charging infrastructure becomes more mature.
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    There are plenty of potential buyers that have appropriate commutes for a leaf. I don't think poor economy is hurting sales.

    Nissan screwed up on pricing and availability. They priced it too low, then did not deliver enough cars. That made some waiting get irritated and buy other cars. Then the price increase and big winter hit in range has slowed other buyers. It is trying to help cold weather range with the new heat pump.

    Nissan also initially thought their market was environmentalist, but both the leaf and volt appear more to people that like the technology. For these folks more content at a higher price can increase sales. The leaf is adding leather, but will it be enough. The Tesla S seems to have the greater range and appeal to these technologists more. Only time will tell. The infiniti version of the leaf may sell better than the leaf in the US.
  16. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    ??? At $49.9k after tax credit for the 150 miles model?
    http://www.teslamotors.com/models/options

    S seems a pretty big car - 195" long and 77" wide. Not sure if 77" ref'd from same as Camry, but Camry is 188", 72ish " wide.

    IMO, Leaf and S are quite the different market and clientele.
  17. Skoorbmax

    Skoorbmax Senior Member

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    Tesla S is actually going to start at $57,500 (their $50k is after $7500 off) vs the Leaf's what $33k or so?

    I wouldn't have said they'd compete, but Daniel on the forums was going to buy a Leaf and ended up with a Tesla Roadster, though this because there are so darn few EV options I assume.
  18. seilerts

    seilerts Battery Curmudgeon

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    If that's true, then the Model S is a far more intriguing concept vs. Volt, Leaf, iMEV for the prospective buyer.
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