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nissan looking at 150 mile epa range, implies battery costs continuing down

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Jan 31, 2014.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Nissan Asks “How Much of a Premium Would You Pay For a 150-Mile EPA-Rated LEAF?”


    When we consider the current 2014 leaf is rated at an epa 84 miles that is an additional 66 miles for $5K or less around 2017, or around $75/mile or less. That implies battery costs of less than $300/kwh to the consumer in line with what we have heard tesla say it costs them. Pricing for an SV is $32,000 before incentives, this would push it up to $37,000, but..when they start selling them there will still be incentives for a little while, making the car cost around the same as a prius in Calfornia, but wtih a hov sticker.
     
  2. dipper

    dipper Senior Member

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    I am still worry about Nissan's approach to not putting in a TMS to protect their battery. At the assumed $37k price, I am willing to pay a little more from Tesla to get me the 200 miles car instead with a TMS and their faster supercharging option.
     
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  3. John H

    John H Senior Member

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    considering the vehicle life is significantly extended with the 150 mile option, I would just go with the single offering and offer a lease deal that matches the current lease offers (monthly) but with a higher residual value for the same mileage.
     
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  4. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    People say the HV battery in the Leaf costs £5,000. Add 50% extra and surely that would be £7,500 or only £2,500 for a more useable and realistic range.

    So a £21,000 car with a 60/90/110 mile range becomes a £23,000 car with a 90/135/165 mile range.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    when are they going to increase the leaf to prius size?
     
  6. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    I think all manufacturers serious about the EV market are looking into 150-200 mile range for the next gen models. Otherwise, they will lose sales to Tesla's Model E like crazy and they know it. I'm sure Nissan has been developing these for a while now for the next Leaf, and I'm willing to bet Chevy has the technology but is hesitant to put it on the market (back to EV1 extinction reasons) however will be forced to for the next Volt.
     
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  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    We have no idea if the next generation nissan will have a liquid conditioned battery in the next generation leaf. IMHO if they don't, they would be wise to test both, especially in texas, florida, and atlanta where they can expect many sales if they get it right.

    $37K was at the top end of the survey, and I would again expect that they start selling with the tax credit. As for tesla blue star versus leaf bev150, I have no idea until the cars come out until we see them. I would not bet against tesla though, but nissan could do well in bevs even if tesla does well. There is plenty of room for growth in bevs. That Nissan is able to drop battery prices too confirms part of tesla's marketing plan.

    With 150 miles worth of range, Nissan needs many fewer superchargers than they would with 84 mile range;)


    On this chevy has said they are working on a 200 mile bev. It probably takes 2 years to test batteries, and that is the likely hold up (reliability and cost). Tesla had the best marketing plan out of all these companies, but both Nissan and GM credit the tesla roadster for them to create the volt and leaf. The other side issue is GM was working with A123 on the batteries for this, and will likely change vendors. GM and NIssan move slow because they are old line car companies, but nissan has been working longer. Tesla has a different attitude. GM could go in with tesla on a joint venture to build batteries, with a cell manufacturer, which may help both companies reduce costs. Batteries are the biggest supplier constraint on teslas growth. If tesla hits at the end of 2016, I wouldn't expect a gm car until at least the end of 2017.
     
  8. dipper

    dipper Senior Member

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    Nissan is working on new battery chemistry with current Leaf owners in HOT places to "try" to resolve this battery capacity lost issue. No TMS solution. So one has to assume this is the way Nissan is going to go forward with their next Leaf.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A 150 mile Leaf, even with margin, makes a day-trip to Nashville, 115-140 miles, practical. I won't retire the 1.8L Prius but the 1.5L Prius would soon be history.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Prior to the first deliveries, Nissan FIRST alluded to the Leaf getting 100 miles of range ... and failed to mention that the Leaf's ADVERTISED pack was 24kWh rather than the 21 usable portion. Cold weather driving range isn't even in the 80's range, but rather the 70's. THEN, (especially in hot summer climates) you loose capacity around 30,000 miles (if you're lucky to get that far). Now Nissan wants to claim 150 miles for gen II ?!?

    Great !! That means, in cold weather, after a couple years, I'll finally get that 100 miles they (covertly) said I'd get in the first place. Sorry, their standards for being unable to speak in an up front manner are history. The AZ owners played hell when their packs started loosing capacity prematurely. Not that I'm complaining (about that, and the junkie carpet, HUGE power draw from the heater, crappy Ecopia tire wear, incapable of being able to upgrade the on-board chargers as they hinted would be possible, etc) ... because when you get the first iteration ... that's the nature of things. Besides, it was the only cheep game in town.
    Having driven both vehicles for 3 years or more, IMO there's not that much passenger/driver room difference. Cargo, yes.
    .
     
  11. Alan Claver

    Alan Claver Junior Member

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    The sweet spot is 200 miles and that's a reliable 200 miles, not just with hypermileing and in nice, warm weather. Until this happens, EVs will still be a niche product whether it's "lower" cost ones or "high end" ones like Tesla.

    I'm wondering if it's going to be a race between hydrogen powered vehicles with 300 mi range and 5 min fill up and 200 mi range EVs with, what a couple of hours recharge to full range?
     
  12. dipper

    dipper Senior Member

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    I put my money on EV.

    The hydrogen game will be similar (but worse) than the CNG game. Where the hell are you going to find one? You have to drive out of your way to get the 5 minute refuel. Is that out of your way 10 minutes or 1 hr drive?

    You know about the EV charging station out rage thread? Try not finding a working one. Or one with the new higher price. Or one with very low pressure that you cannot get to refuel full. See CNG threads about CNG car owners frustration.

    I rather worry about range, and find my fuel in my garage than the above... just so I can refuel in 5 minutes.
     
  13. Scorpion

    Scorpion Active Member

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    It will not take 2 hours to re-fill a LEAF-type EV back to 200 miles starting with an empty battery. If you are referencing expensive hydrogen stations, then it is only fair to compare to Level 3 DC rapid EV chargers, if we want a fair comparison (the L3's will cost far less than the H2 stations, but that's another story).
    The current LEAF uses Chademo, and this next hypothetical version may or may not have it, depending on whether Nissan bites the dust on Chademo and adopts SAE Combo.
    Regardless, here are the numbers:
    Chademo: 60 kw max rate, meaning current 18.9 kwh LEAF battery fills in about 25 minutes; a 200-mile LEAF would need about twice 18.9 kwh, or 38 kwh, so you are looking at a 40-45 minute fillup
    SAE Combo: 100 kw max at first deployment, with possible future upgrades up to 200 kw. So, refilling a 38 kwh, 200-mile LEAF should take no more than 25 minutes initially, and possibly as little as 15 minutes if upgraded
    So, if we are talking about the L3 chargers that are most likely to be along major highway routes and intersections, refilling a LEAF-class 200-mile EV is 15 minutes at fastest and 45 minutes at slowest. This is much better than 2 hours ;)
    Oh, one thing - I am assuming the 150-200 mile LEAF battery would weigh about the same as the one in the current LEAF. That may be a tad optimistic, but they might be able to cut weight elsewhere or increase drivetrain efficiency in order to make up for the extra weight of the more powerful batteries.
     
  14. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Sales can double several times and still be selling into all the niches. If an EV capable of "going mainstream" was technically available and at a low cost the infrastructure needed to build them wouldn't be in place.

    Mike
     
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  15. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    According to some folks at Nissan - the existing Leaf already gets 200km range. See vidio at 2:28:
    Nissan Unveils Electric Car to Contest Le Mans: Video - Bloomberg
    The people to say this crap ... do they think we can't remember this stuf? - it's not that Leaf owners can't live with the spec's that they discover to be "real". But the crap that Nissan puts out as real . . . it's pure exasperation - and gives the impression that Nissan is no better than GM spin doctors. Is it any wonder that owners don't believe 150 miles claims will truly be 150 miles?
    .
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I don't know if all the FUD has hidden the fact, but the tesla S 85kwh can easily do over 200 miles in cold weather. If its 32 or above @70 mph or in the city its above 200 with the heat on. If you drop down to 0, you need to drop to 65mph for 198 mpg (or over 200 if you turn down the heat.

    Your Questions Answered | Tesla Motors


    There is not really a race here. As I said the car is alraedy here. The superchargers are here to cross the country, but they are still filling in places. I would say in 2 years EVs will satisfy the over 200 mi range and fill up in an hour with a super charger. 69% of the population drives less than 60 miles on a week day, so the longer than 100 range is only needed for occasional trips and super chargers will likely be in place on route by 2016, with L2 chargers available when super chargers don't work out. Tesla also can add battery swap and have demonstrated less than 2 minute swap time.

    For fuel cells a 300 mile range is promised by hyundai this year, and toyota and honda next year. I would say that works. For cold weather, well these only can get fueled in california, if they ever make it out of the state they can easily add bigger tanks (for more money) to satisfy that range out to 300 miles. The fueling in 5 minutes is a big problem though. I would not expect there would be a refueling network in place in the other 49 states than california, for at least a decade if ever. That means you have to drive back every time you get to half a tank ;-) That trip takes a long time.

    Now the big question isn't will bevs do it first, tesla has already answered that, but will prices come down. Toyota claims fuel cell vehicle prices will come down fast but not bevs. Nissan with this survey makes it seem that the tesla argument for prices coming down for bevs is more likely. IMHO when you ask the hong trip in the snow question though, a phev is better suited than a fuel cell or bev. I don't see a reason we need to go to zero tail pipe emissions.
     
  17. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    It's been a couple of years since I've sat in a Leaf but I don't recall it being smaller so I just checked and it's about the same size as your car (2 cu.ft. less interior but 2 cu.ft. bigger hatch): Compare Side-by-Side
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I agree with you there, but recheck my post. They are talking 150 miles epa. This compares to 73 miles on the first leaf, and 84 on the 2014 mile. Will it be a true 150 miles? If its not cold it will probably be truer than the prius liftbacks 50 mpg, as the test for bevs is a little tougher than hybrids versus real world. In cold temperatures I don't expect it to be true. There are problems with that epa test, and its hard to give just one number for plug ins. I hope nissan puts a calculator up like tesla, so drivers can put speed and temp in and see how far it will go.

    I suspect if they build this beast it will get about twice the range as your leaf.
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thanks, interesting to hills #11 post.
     
  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Just to add, falling battery costs have bmw optimistic on their i division of phevs and bevs with optional range extenders.

    BMW CEO: i Sub Brand Could Eventually Account For 15% of BMW’s Total Global Sales


    That just is for bmw.