SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

you mean the nearly ½ of the peeps that get no symptoms & never knew thwy had it?
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it is amazing, how much even 'authorities' disagree about best practices. but you never know what someone's motivation might be

 

I appreciate that the population of asymptomatic 'carriers' is a hard number and I grabbed one of the first, closed populations. It is a worse case. The Italian Vo study shows a much lower initial percentage, 2.6%:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2488-1

On the 21st of February 2020 a resident of the municipality of Vo’, a small town near Padua, died of pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2 infection1. This was the first COVID-19 death detected in Italy since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province2. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days3. We collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo’ at two consecutive time points. On the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-3.3%). On the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (i.e. did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards).
. . . ​

So 42.5% * 2.6% ~= 1.1% initially asymptomatic in a population locked down after one case. In contrast, the ship had over 600 cases. So what is the asymptomatic rate in Madison County AL?

I don't have any local metrics beyond these from Johns Hopkins:

• ~373,000 population
• 3,462 confirmed cases ~= 0.93%
• 14 dead ~= 0.004%

Local news reports are the nasal swab test results take 7-10 days to get the results.

So the question remains, what is the best practice?

My answer is to test body temperature and O{2} twice a day. I do the shopping so I wear a mask and don't to to places where others are bare faced and not socially distancing. If we (me) get early symptoms, I'll call, load the wife in the car, and head to the ER. I'll probably drop the dogs off at a kennel. It comes with having to run the house and take reasonable precautions.

Bob Wilson

 

One caution. As early, small trials of 100-500 complete, there is a strong push for optimistic press releases. Even formal papers or preview papers, are likely to share their limited but positive results. IMHO, take these press releases and early abstracts as 'interesting' but caution. For example:
Trial of Covid-19 drug given via inhaler 'very promising', say scientists | World news | The Guardian

The trial, which was given the green light in March, involved about 100 patients who had been admitted to hospital with Covid-19. While half were given SNG001, the other half were given a placebo – neither the patients nor the doctors were aware at the time who was in which group.

Patients were given the drug for up to 14 days, with post-treatment data collected on days 15 and 16, and patients further tracked up to day 28. Over the course of the trial, three patients in the placebo group died; there were no deaths among those given SNG001.​

About 50 patients actually took the medication. Cautious happiness, yes, but there are so many unknowns.

Bob Wilson

 

Watching the website that shows new cases worldwide, daily deaths, overall totals & such .... of the top 26 countries? Considering populations? With the exception of one country, populations tend to be the deciding factor in how many cases exist.

 

the spanish flu ended on it's own. you were either immune, or dead

 

Black death too.

Bob Wilson

 

& monkey pox
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a pox on both your houses

 

Sounds like a rash statement!

 

Amen brother

 

I had a bright idea, mask testing:

1. Normal voice, beverages, and food. Minimal social distancing
   
2. Muffled voice, no beverages or food. Minimal social distancing
   
3. Normal voice, accepts straws and food. Maximum social distancing
   
4. Muffled voice, no beverages or food. Maxiumum social distancing

Bob Wilson

 

Upper left is definitely the scariest.

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nice fu man chu

 

MIT develops low cost mask as effective as N95 masks
MIT researchers designed reusable N95 face mask for healthcare workers

 

i wish some of these products would come to market before we all die

 

mortality; it's been on the decline now for several years due to obesity, hypertension, drug abuse, alcoholism, weight-related diabetes, suicide, air pollution via dense populations etc

US life expectancy is still on the decline. Here's why - CNN

We might stand a better chance if we just get off of our arses / move around & drop the junk food rather than waiting for a better mask.

Shake a spear at you too!

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newsweek:

yale school of public health professor of epidemiology harvey risch (md phd) claims that hydroxychloroquine, in combination with antibiotics and zinc, has been proven to save lives if used early in covid diagnosis.

he says that the politicization of the drug has cost the world tens of thousands of lives, and will continue to do so unless we come to our senses.