SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In my field there are (hard to count) thousands who use statistical analyses. I know a few with full understanding, among which I am not. These tools are mostly vague about which is the sharp part and which is the handle.

    (edited for better poetry :) )
     
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  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    you mean the nearly ½ of the peeps that get no symptoms & never knew thwy had it?
    .
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    May I say, after all, that we are mostly at sea about all this (probably million killing) stupid little virus?

    We have vastly differing outcomes in different places with different policies and adherence. We have analytical assessments up the wazoo (can I say that?). We have possible therapeutics being batted this way and that. We have possible vaccines that will fill media channels at least until 2020 (a very bad year) orbits out. It's a mess.

    I say what many have known for months earlier here. Do, and interact and 'economy' as much as you can, but realize that your lungs and mucus membranes are sacred spaces and they are yours for access control.

    How much better it would have been if from the outset, everyone knew what to do against stupid COVID, and did it. Yeah, well, no.

    Will be a ~1 in 7000 global killer. Unwelcome and grieved. Yet valuable in terms of viruses not yet noticing the human photocopy apparatus. A rehearsal.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it is amazing, how much even 'authorities' disagree about best practices. but you never know what someone's motivation might be
     
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I appreciate that the population of asymptomatic 'carriers' is a hard number and I grabbed one of the first, closed populations. It is a worse case. The Italian Vo study shows a much lower initial percentage, 2.6%:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2488-1

    On the 21st of February 2020 a resident of the municipality of Vo’, a small town near Padua, died of pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2 infection1. This was the first COVID-19 death detected in Italy since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province2. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days3. We collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo’ at two consecutive time points. On the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-3.3%). On the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (i.e. did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards).
    . . .

    So 42.5% * 2.6% ~= 1.1% initially asymptomatic in a population locked down after one case. In contrast, the ship had over 600 cases. So what is the asymptomatic rate in Madison County AL?

    I don't have any local metrics beyond these from Johns Hopkins:
    • ~373,000 population
    • 3,462 confirmed cases ~= 0.93%
    • 14 dead ~= 0.004%

    Local news reports are the nasal swab test results take 7-10 days to get the results.

    So the question remains, what is the best practice?

    My answer is to test body temperature and O{2} twice a day. I do the shopping so I wear a mask and don't to to places where others are bare faced and not socially distancing. If we (me) get early symptoms, I'll call, load the wife in the car, and head to the ER. I'll probably drop the dogs off at a kennel. It comes with having to run the house and take reasonable precautions.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2425 bwilson4web, Jul 20, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
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  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    One caution. As early, small trials of 100-500 complete, there is a strong push for optimistic press releases. Even formal papers or preview papers, are likely to share their limited but positive results. IMHO, take these press releases and early abstracts as 'interesting' but caution. For example:
    Trial of Covid-19 drug given via inhaler 'very promising', say scientists | World news | The Guardian

    The trial, which was given the green light in March, involved about 100 patients who had been admitted to hospital with Covid-19. While half were given SNG001, the other half were given a placebo – neither the patients nor the doctors were aware at the time who was in which group.

    Patients were given the drug for up to 14 days, with post-treatment data collected on days 15 and 16, and patients further tracked up to day 28. Over the course of the trial, three patients in the placebo group died; there were no deaths among those given SNG001.​

    About 50 patients actually took the medication. Cautious happiness, yes, but there are so many unknowns.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Watching the website that shows new cases worldwide, daily deaths, overall totals & such .... of the top 26 countries? Considering populations? With the exception of one country, populations tend to be the deciding factor in how many cases exist.
    Capture+_2020-07-21-05-00-06-1.png
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    the spanish flu ended on it's own. you were either immune, or dead
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Black death too.

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    & monkey pox
    .
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    a pox on both your houses
     
  12. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Active Member

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    Sounds like a rash statement!
     
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  13. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    Amen brother
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I had a bright idea, mask testing:
    masks_050.jpg
    1. Normal voice, beverages, and food. Minimal social distancing
    2. Muffled voice, no beverages or food. Minimal social distancing
    3. Normal voice, accepts straws and food. Maximum social distancing
    4. Muffled voice, no beverages or food. Maxiumum social distancing
    Bob Wilson
     
    #2434 bwilson4web, Jul 22, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
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  15. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Upper left is definitely the scariest.

    .
     
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    nice fu man chu ;)
     
  17. John321

    John321 Active Member

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  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wish some of these products would come to market before we all die
     
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  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    mortality; it's been on the decline now for several years due to obesity, hypertension, drug abuse, alcoholism, weight-related diabetes, suicide, air pollution via dense populations etc

    US life expectancy is still on the decline. Here's why - CNN

    We might stand a better chance if we just get off of our arses / move around & drop the junk food rather than waiting for a better mask.
    Shake a spear at you too!

    .
     
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    newsweek:

    yale school of public health professor of epidemiology harvey risch (md phd) claims that hydroxychloroquine, in combination with antibiotics and zinc, has been proven to save lives if used early in covid diagnosis.

    he says that the politicization of the drug has cost the world tens of thousands of lives, and will continue to do so unless we come to our senses.