1st Fuel Cell to Market: Not Toyota

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by hill, Jun 4, 2014.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I am not sure what the argument is about.

    Tesla builds super chargers. Tesla builds solar to go with the chargers. These are grid tied but we should account for it by kwh in ( versus kwh out (to charge) as long as tesla works with each local grid to make sure it improves the infrastructure if its stressing it.

    I thought that tesla was planning to build or buy enough solar or wind to cover charging renewably. It appears that that is no longer the case, and perhaps I misheard.

    Troy, Hill, do we know what percentage in each state is renewable for the super chargers? That would be a fairly interesting statistic to me.

    We do know for fuel cells, there is only 1 state, and 8 of the 54 hydrogen stations will be renewable. We know that the current renewable hydrogen costs $9-$18/kg perhaps the state will pay for all of that extra, or maybe hyundai, toyota, and honda will share the cost. The rest will be natural gas.

    Approximately 40% of tesla owners in the state that all the fuel cell cars will be leased (will they sell them this time?) charge their cars at home with renewable electricity which is considerably less expensive because the cars need so much less of it to go the same distance as a fuel cell vehicle.

    Looks like there will be a tesla battery swap station (faster refills than hydrogen) in about 6 months on highway 5 between san francisco and LA. We don't know if it will be open to the public or how much it costs,.
    Tesla Provides Update On Battery Swapping Status
     
  2. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    The debate is about the following statement which is flat WRONG in its claim. Tesla solar powered-chargers do not produce enough electricity to dump any excess into the grid:
    Sadly that's not true. Over on teslamotors' forum somebody calculated the solar panel on top of the Supercharger only provides enough power for 3 cars (if it's sunny... far less on cloudy days like today). So basically all the solar power is used-up and NONE is dumped to the grid.
     
  3. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    link?
    I'd like to read up on the detail of his calc's .... & maybe determine how he knows with such certainty how each car takes on a virtually 100% (versus only 50%) charge .... and how he knows with certainty the # of cars each day that tap each charge location. You can PM it if you like ..... not that I'm opposed to derailing this thread about 'hydrogen-cars'.
    :)
    .
     
    #63 hill, Jun 25, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2014
  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    This is the second time I've seen you link one of my posts with a quote not contained there, and that I didn't type.
    Might be this one: How many solar panels will there be required at a supercharger location to generate enough energy to charge 100 Model S per day? | Forums | Tesla Motors

    They are talking of just the array at the supercharger location. Isn't Tesla installing, or will, off site ones to offset the chargers use for busier locations?
     
  5. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    The plan from Tesla has, and is, to produce the supercharger stations, then the solar canopies, and then follow that up with power storage capabilities at each supercharger station.

    First, they are prioritizing building out the base network, during this time the amount of solar produced network wide will be less than the amount of charging network wide.
    As more solar canopies are built, this will be designed to be net zero.

    From patterns we see now, this will nt be all that difficult as while some superchargers are very busy, others are deserted for much/all of the week. Excess power generated at those spots will help offset deficits at others.

    Eventually Tesla will use battery back up at many/most/all superchargers, so that they don't need to draw off the grid during peak hours.
     
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  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    That was probably me not trollbait, and I take it back.

    Back a year ago, Musk on the conference call said that people charging on the network would be "driving on sunshine". Checking the lastest PR though, tesla now seems to be saying domestically produced electricity. It looks like the super chargers are more popular, and are charging faster than tesla is putting up panels. I can't see any percentage though only speculation.

    Now Austin Energy, my local provider, has built more solar for the local charging stations that is being used, and if they get more popular they will build more. There is a $30 charge for six months though and they are L2 for now, and prices will go up as they get busier and more solar needs to be built and they go L3.

    I really don't know what the tesla plan is anymore. I emailed them this morning. They definitely don't need to build all the solar at the chargers. In california, they have a huge roof at NUMMI to install solar on. In texas they can easily buy wind. But in some states, I expect they may run into a problem.

    For arguments sake, lets say its "only" 30% in california right now. That doesn't seem so bad compared to building the hydrogen stations in California that look like they will be 8/58 or 14% renewable. I would expect outside of california, which won't happen for decades if at all, the percentage for fuel cells will be even lower.
     
    #66 austingreen, Jun 25, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2014
  7. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    I hope you're right but I'm skeptical. A solar panel doesn't produce that much energy.
     
  8. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    FCV has come a long way. You can judge it from it's past or what it can do in the future. I prefer the latter.

    Regarding Tesla solar panels, I sure hope they keep the solar RECs and not sell them. If they do, the claim of solar power is gone.
     
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Absolutely. We shouldn't judge them from the past, but its hard to get past the past hype, to believe the predictions for the future.

    Japan bets big on making fuel-cell cars a near-future reality| Reuters
    In 2004 california said they would have 100 hydrogen stations and tens of thousands of fuel cell cars on the road by 2010. Two years ago CARB were talking about 53,000 by the end of 2017. They have not yet revised down. I think toyota's prediction of 10,000 fcv in california by end of 2017, made last month is a lot more doable, but it still sounds high to me.

    Still if METI pours enough money into them, they have a reasonable chance of replacing hybrids in Japan.

    I don't know if they are are aren't. They definitely are selling the ZEV credits which have been worth more. I agree that if tesla sells the rights to the power, they no longer own it. Do you have a source?

    Should Toyota fuel cell vehicles get credit for renewables, if the renewables were built completely from Government funding? OR would that fit the tesla scenario you just outlined?
     
  10. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    The funding for hydrogen is a fraction of that spent on BEV under DOE sec. Steven Chu.

    Should Tesla get ZEV credits if they got loan and other gov incentives?

    The good thing is, we'll have FCVs on the road and H2 highways are being built.

    Fuel cell make a better range extender for PHV than gas. Hydrogen can be produced from numerous source, overwhelmingly domestic source. I am puzzled why you guys are being electric cry babies insecure about battery operated cars.

    Neither you nor Troll Bait own a plugin car. Is there a good reason why you have not put your money where your mouth is?

    You sure spend a lot of time here talking/promoting EVs (and Volt) while talking down the PiP, FCV, anything Toyota. Yet, you claim to own a Prius. Do you really?

    Please post pics of your car and any info on customization you have done. I don't remember you participating and posting any ownership related stuffs.
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Spending per car for hydrogen is much higher for fuel cells than for plug-ins. Yes funding for plug-ins is higher than fuel cells but there are over 1000 plug-in cars for every fuel cell. You wouldn't expect it to be as much. Mary Nichols (CARB president) got congress to restore funding for hydrogen, and Chu was forced to cut spending he considered more important, and still the cars have not come. Now Chu has been replaced as DOE head by Muniz. The budget has actually been cut finally. If toyota or someone else actually comes up with anything good, I'm sure they will shift resources.

    Cumulative spending for fuel cells from federal sources is$2.8B That was only recently surpassed by plug-ins, because people are actually making plug-ins.

    Why single tesla out? Toyota got loans to bring the prius to missippi? CARB almost did cut tesla off and changed the rules to reduce its credits. Do you really think a leaf deserves 3 credits and the tucson fuel cell deserves 26.

    none of the three companies are talking about range extenders they are talkng about no plugs and each will build 1000 vehicles.

    Let us see in 2017 whether it is a good thing or not.

    waiting for this batch to see what they do. I'll probably end up with an i3 or an S. Now that there are superchargers in my area, and the i3's tank is so small, I'm leaning toward the Tesla S, but its a lot of money.
    I don't talk down the prius phv. I think its good you own one. I think if toyota had put a bigger battery in it, they might have a sold a lot more. As it is they are number 3 behind the leaf and volt. I think its bad that toyota has not expanded plug-ins to Texas and Florida. It is sort of a slap in the face as I think the states are numbers 2 and 3 when it comes to hybrids, and 3 and 4 in plug-ins. Toyota could help with plug-in growth, but they seem to be pushing hydrogen instead, for what looks like purely political reasons.

    You asked me about my changed rims early on. but sure believe what you want. I talk a lot down about the FCV, because it seems like an all hype car. Now that we have the price and the looks, and the JC08 range don't you agree. $68K looks really expensive for what you get. It looks like 87 mpge on JC08, which compares to 77 mpg on JC08 for my gen 3 prius. The acceleration is supposed to be similar. My guess is the fcv will handle better, but so should the gen IV prius phv.
     
    #71 austingreen, Jun 26, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2014
  12. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    We'll have to see the US price. It is a 4 seater only so it will have limited appeal, as it should for the launch generation. The one to watch out for is the gen 2 where I predict they go with hatchback configuration. The potential is there to be a big leap. It needs a lot of hype to get the h2 stations built up.

    JC08 efficiency is interesting. That put it into around EPA 56 MPGe, better than Clarity FCX.

    Since h2 production is about 2x more efficient than electricity, FCV is about an EV with 112 MPGe level, without big battery carbon footprint. FCV battery is about 1-2kWh like hybrids and has more range than 85kWh Model S.

    Have you ever posted your car with the aftermarket rims? Would love to see them.
     
  13. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    It's produced from imported fossil fuels, so No it isn't better than a EV car with a gasoline engine backup (like the Volt or PiP). There is no difference.
    Also incorrect. Others have posted data on this thread showing H2 production is less efficient than converting Coal or CNG into electricity. (Common sense also tells us that moving near-weightless electrons through a wire is More efficient than moving hundreds-of-thousands of ton of fuel over roads.)
     
    #73 Troy Heagy, Jun 27, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2014
  14. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    FCEV funding has been going on a lot longer than BEV.
    Fuel cell make a better range extender for PHV than gas. Hydrogen can be produced from numerous source, overwhelmingly domestic source. I am puzzled why you guys are being electric cry babies insecure about battery operated cars.[/quote]I agree, it could be a great range extender. Which one available has a plug?
    Because I don't have the income for a BEV that would reliably cover my 60 mile commute all year. Loss income meant selling my gen2 years ago. My hundred plus year old house electrical needs major work before even considering digging a trench to run a line for a charger out to the detached garage.
    I haven't talk down the PPI for awhile. I admit to misunderstanding the difference between a plug in hybrid that it is and the more EVer models. It can offer a big improvement in economy over a Prius.

    Considering the cost of plug in kits, it should have been priced lower, or at least been offered without all the extra features. That's the only specific complaint against it. Others are against Toyota. They had the means to underwrite its cost to allow greater penetration, which supposedly was part of the reason to using a smaller battery pack to keep that cost low, and they reneged on taking it nationwide.

    It will be years before FCEVs become available outside California, if they ever do. Yet Toyota doesn't want to offer a cleaner alternative, that they already make, to the rest of the country until then.

    Assuming we don't just get lease only.
    The Clarity is rated 61mpge. Honda FCX Clarity - Refueling - Official Web Site That is likely best rating from that site. The worse maybe 59mpge, or that was the MB FCEV rating. Part of the reason I misquoted the Tucson mpge previously is because it was so much lower than an older FCEV model.
    Since h2 production is about 2x more efficient than electricity, FCV is about an EV with 112 MPGe level, without big battery carbon footprint. FCV battery is about 1-2kWh like hybrids and has more range than 85kWh Model S.[/QUOTE]The high efficiency rates for hydrogen production are without carbon sequestering. With steam reforming, for every mole of methane and 2 of water in we get 4 moles of hydrogen gas and 1 of carbon dioxide. In terms of mass, that means 6kg of CO2 is produced for every 1 of hydrogen. That is 6000 grams of CO2 before accounting for the methane burned to make the steam for the reaction, and any electricity used in the process, and afterwords in pumping and compressing the hydrogen.
     
  15. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Dimestic natural gas is transformed into H2 and transported with 67% efficiency. For electricity, it is 33% efficient.

    There is no need to convert NG -> electricity -> H2. That's what EV bias people wants you to believe.
     
  16. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Can you give more specific details on this? There are many ways to produce electricity. I assume you are assuming steam reformation of NG for the H2.

    Mike
     
  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Yes, I was hoping toyota would give an estimate for the american market too. I think they are waiting to find out how much METI will contribute, and if the US $8000 tax credit that expires at the end of the year will be renewed. My guess is they will match Hyundai's lease offer or go lower, depening on what honda does which will get the same credits.

    The only thing we know they will get is the ZEV credit bonus through end of 2017 and $2500 from the state of california. $20+M/year for hydrogen infrastructure in california, and a bunch of R&D supliments, I'm expecting at least $8K+ per vehicle from US and Japanese federal governments. Hyundai for this year is getting something from korea and $8K from the US on each fuel cell car they lease.
    I do hope Toyota pleasantly surprises me on the next generation. We may be suffering from hype fatigue ;-) That is why there is so much push back.

    Latest epa says clarity 59 miles/kg hydrogen (60mpge) Toyota has been talking about 310 mile range, but I don't think its final, which would be 62 miles/kg hydrogen.
    Yes we can build 67% efficient hydrogen compressed to 10,000 psi from natural gas. Our average is lower today, but given the DOE research and larger scale it can be done.

    For electricity its kind of tricky. Sure coal is about 33% efficient, but coal is on whether cars are pluged-in or not. The bulk of marginal power is natural gas combined cycle which the eia figure nationally most recently (2012) was 45% efficient (the plants are more efficient but they cycle, which causes a drop). After grid losses natural gas ccgt drops to 42%. New fast cycling ccgt has higher peak efficiency and is more efficient to cycle so it is over 50% efficient after grid losses. Some undoubtedly will be peaking units that will be only 28% after grid losses, but in most places this is will only be a small percent, depending on when cars are charged.

    On nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, geo, biomass, these forms of electricity are difficult to catagorize for efficiency. If you do use them via electrolysis then hydrogen is much less efficient and more expensive than electricity. DOE just offered $20M in grants to get renewable hydrogen less expensive, as well.

    quick snap of the car today. It needs a wash ;-)[/quote]
     

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  18. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    I doubt that. It takes a lot of energy to move several million pounds of fuel & very little energy to move near-weightless electrons..... besides natural gas won't be domestic for too much longer. We will run out in 1-2 decades and have to return to importing it. Wouldn't it make more sense to have a car that doesn't rely on fossil fuel & could run on citizens' private solar roofs? (Or solar supplied by sunny states like Nevada/Arizona.)

    And what about those studies which show H2 cars generate more CO2 than electric cars? People have posted numerous links.

    Post Carbon Institute | Leading the transition to a resilient world
     
    #78 Troy Heagy, Jun 27, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2014
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    And FCEV bias people want you to believe that newer NG power plants are as efficient as decades old coal ones.

    Right now, people can choose to buy lower carbon impact electric for their plug in. They can even choose to install PV or even wind power at their home. There is no such choice with hydrogen. The only way to reduce the carbon emissions of hydrogen production is to mandate it. Which will raise its price. Which may already be more than fueling an equivelint gasoline car.
     
  20. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    I am sure you have seen this Toyota calculation before. It said H2 production is from membrane separation from NG.

    Sorry, electricity is 39%, not 33%.

    [​IMG]

    Unless you have a combined cycle natural gas power plant in your home, you can't plug into that.

    Our outlets are connected to the grid mixed with electricity from many sources, mainly coal. That's the legacy truth and you can't just ignore that and focus only on renewable. Today's plugin need to be designed for today's grid mix, not tomorrow's.

    H2 production has a clean start on a new sheet of paper. It is clean and deemed one of the viable technology. There is no need to be against it.

    FCV and H2 infrastructure have the chicken or egg problem. Car manufactures are bringing out the chickens and promoting it up to get enough eggs (H2 stations). All done to have the next generation prosper.

    While cracking this problem, rethink your position. Are you being part of the solution or the problem?
     
    #80 usbseawolf2000, Jun 28, 2014
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