2016 Prius or 2016 Volt...Which should I buy?

The reduction of $3,500 is listed on the same slide which said the new 53 mile EV range improved by 40% which implies a starting case of 38 miles of EV range. This points out that the cost reduction being reported is relative to the 2015 Volt and not the 2011 Volt which had a smaller EV range.

Here is that slide from last week's annual GM global business overview for investors:


Meanwhile, battery pack prices have dropped dramatically. Back in 2010-2011, the Volt's battery pack cost was generally assumed to be around $10,000 - $12,000 or $600-750 per kWh at 16 kWh.

Here's a graphic from GreenCarReports in 2012 showing typical estimated pack costs from that time period.

How Much And How Fast Will Electric-Car Battery Costs Fall?



It turns out that prices have dropped faster than predicted. The same slide set that discussed the $3,500 cost reduction in the 2016 Volt also disclosed that 2016 Chevy Bolt cells would cost $145 per kWh which implies a pack-level cost of around $175-225 per kWh which is consistent with the lowest estimate on this chart for 2020 rather than 2016.

But EV cells are more energy dense than PHEV cells and therefore cheaper per kWh. Let's assume the 2015 Volt pack is closer to $350 per kWh or a 2015 Volt 17.1kWh pack costing roughly $6,000. If the 2011 Volt pack cost $11,000 in 2011 dollars that would be around $12,000 in today's dollars after inflation and that means the 2015 Volt pack was price reduced by roughly $12,000 - $6,000 or $6,000.

This is probably a large part of the explanation of how the MSRP + destination price of a 2011 Volt fell from $41,000 in 2010-2011 dollars to $35,000 in 2015.

Now add the $3,500 cost reduction between the 2016 and 2015 Volt and you get $6,000 + $3,500 = $9,500 in cost reduction between the 2011 Volt and the 2016 Volt. And actually, this was "variable profit improvement" and yet they are selling the 2016 Volt for just over $1,000 less than the 2015 Volt which implies that they actually reduced costs by around $4,500 before the $1,000 MSRP reduction.

The actual stated goal was a reduction of between $7,000 and $10,000 and the statement was made around April, 2013 as reported here by Bloomberg:

GM Targets Up to $10,000 in Chevy Volt Cost Savings - Bloomberg Business

Now I'm not saying that $10,500 is the exact cost reduction since the 2011 model year but it seems approximately right, based on what is known publicly. It could be a little higher or lower. I think it's likely that they met their $7-10k reduction goal. And, I think it's likely that the Volt's battery prices will continue to fall in line with the projected Bolt projection of a 33% reduction by 2022. That would be roughly another $2,000 reduction in pack costs.

I think we will see a continued sharp growth in BEV sales and this will lead to strong growth in Volt sales as the "BEV with training wheels" which many people with an interest in going all-battery will transition through. So, unlike you, I see a solid future for Volt and Volt-like PHEV sales. I think these people will be willing to pay a $5-7k premium over future Prius prices before tax credit for the much better EV driving quality experience.

 

The assignment was to deliver a high-efficiency, low-emission, profitable vehicle for the masses. No amount of reasoning will earn the homework turned in an "A" grade, since that need remains unfulfilled. In other words, the goal to replace traditional vehicles is how success is measured.

The point is to please ordinary consumers, not enthusiasts. The vehicle of change is the one people purchase in large quantity, not one that only wins engineering praise. It makes no difference what words are exchanged here. What happens on the dealer's lot is what counts. That's how the business is sustained.

It's why none of the arguments that don't include all aspects of the purchase decision fall apart. Know the audience. Know the goals.

Again, what was the assignment?

 

Nobody has reached that goal yet. I'd say the PiP 1 was a mini-flop. If it was profitable, Toyota would have kept making them, demand is there, cars are not. Volt is a worthy competitor as is the PiP. Both are first steps to something better. It will take sometime to get a model selling as well as an ICE flagship product. I'd be surprised if it happened before 2019 or 2020.

 

That's not how economics works. Take a class with participation projects. You'll be quite surprised. The seemingly simple isn't so.

Knowing that an upgrade is on the way is good reason to allow the current model to wind down, especially when it is a mid-cycle upgrade not rolled out to the full market yet.

 

Most people don't give a pooh about 'EV driving experience' or whatever is powering it under the hood or floorboard. What most people want is the space and power they are willing to live with in their car, and price .... PRICE is oh so important to most customers. .....

To this date, Prius liftback .... kinda sorta pricey. Still somewhat wheezy on power, little porky weight to power ratio by most people's standards (not ecofans, etc....), looks a tad unusual and different, but not quite so expensive for its size.

Volt ... pricey for sure. Drives better than a Prius, but make no mistake ... it is SMALL ... for its price. One pays over $25k for a car, they do not expect something with a smaller backseat than a friggen Corolla or Civic, etc.... Volt back seat is PUNY.

New Volt, no doubt better than the outgoing, but it is still a bit small and the backseat situation will bite for most lookers, especially for the price tag on the window. It will sell in higher number than gen1, but it's not going to take off into 5k units a month here, nah way.

IF the gen4 Prius does not gain a pound but comes in near 150 HP, that will help a bunch. If it loses any amount of curb weight, all the better. Gen 4 looks 'sharper' and that's what most lookers want. Gen4 PIP will just be a nice option next year for those into the plug.

all that said, my vote for the most revolutionary cars one can (sign up to) buy these days ... Tesla.

 

I couldn't find the exact figures but it appears GM has sold less than about 70,000 Volts over 5+ years. Also they have lost money on every sale. Those statistics would qualify any car as a failure.

My hot buttons are Price, No Spare, and small Cargo space. I doubt if the no spare or cargo space are responsible for the low sales figures. So it boils down to price. When I consider there are tax benefits in the range from $0 to $10,000 on top of all of this the car is nice but still a failure.

Those that bought one are certainly happy with their Volt cars. It seems to be reliable, nice looking, fun to drive, practical, low cost to operate, and you have to wonder why it has not sold well. I believe the answer is clear - it's price and that's all.

People can make a case that the Volt might be lower total cost of ownership than a Prius but the details of that message are way too complex for the average buyer. It involves a discussion of gas prices, electricity prices, EV range, mpg, and driving patterns. Few want to delve into those details. All they see is the price tag.

Is it true auto insurance rates are much higher for a Volt than Prius too? Then there is the extra amount paid when you include the loan interest rate.

 

Pick your favorite PHEV based on looks, price, space, spare tire or whatever...but the biggest deterrent to PHEV sales is still the plug and infrastructure/time limitations. The best thing to grab new buyers (in the interim) is increased EV range, best mpg after, lower TCO and usability based on the model used to sell regular cars.

 

It's even more complicated than that.

Gen-2 owners will have no choice but to purchase a level-2 charger. Overnight is not realistic if you have any kind of life after work with just a level-1. A full recharge with level-1 takes 13 hours. If you have to leave for work by 7:30 AM, you have to make sure to start recharging by 6:30 PM. That means no going out after dinner to have that full EV experience they've been promoting so heavily.

The price of a level-2 charger isn't ever included in any of those number spreadsheets. That combined with the cost to add a 240-volt line to your garage for the install isn't ever included either. It's another up-front cost most people are clueless about.

So, making that case is really a challenge. And that's just on paper. In person, no matter how nice the driving experience is, the passenger experience is an entirely different matter. Volt is a compact. Prius is a midsize. That difference is quite obvious when sitting in the back seat. Yet, that doesn't get accounted for in ownership cost.

That price tag gets ugly when the tax-credits expire too. With the way GM is now promoting Bolt, it's easy to see those credits getting used up long before the product-cycle ends. How will they competitively sell gen-2 Volt profitably and at high-volume without the subsidy? The situation just plain doesn't add up.

 

Then the Gen I Prius was a failure. Personally, I would agree both Toyota and GM lost money (like every new model auto does) for some duration of initial production recovering investment cost. Until you can provide actual cost numbers for the present day Volt, I'm going to take the "lost money on every sale" as an urban legend. A great many auto industry writers don't really understand how investment and return works, so they continue to publish an transitory condition as a permanent condition...just like they did with the Prius.

The Gen I Prius did not sell well either. The next generations sold very well. I'm going to give the Volt the same consideration. I'm far more worried about GMs lack of long term reliability focus compared to Toyota. That is what they need to prove has changed.

In reality, there is no "average" driver. There is an average of many different drivers. This accounts for the staggering range of vehicle options. While economics is a major factor, that still leaves a huge market for the Volt (and Teslas). If GM can show they can now make long lasting Volts, then they are on the path to success....but they have to prove it.

 

Comparing the market of 12 years earlier based on standards of today is absurd.

And what's with the labeling obsession?

 

if it were me, i would buy the one most appropriate for my needs and desires.

 

tough to answer a question about two cars that can't be seen or driven yet.

to your second and third questions, no, and no. but hey, if the electronic are the only thing that matter to you in a car? whatever.

 

There is no requirement that a Volt has to be driven exactly 53 miles every day so that it requires a full recharge overnight. There is also no automatic requirement that all or even most Volt owners must have 240V charging at home.

For the first year that I owned my 2011 Volt I charged it entirely at home overnight at 120V. My job was 10 miles from home so that meant a 20 mile daily minimum plus drives to lunch, shopping, dinner etc. I averaged about 25-30 miles a day which took maybe 6-7 hours of charging.

During the second year I moved for family reasons farther away from work. I now drive 45 miles to work but sometimes work from home. With my conservative driving habits, I make it all the way to work on the battery even in my 2011 Volt (even now, after 5 years and 118,000 miles). My new home already had an available and unused 240V dryer outlet and an EVSE was $500 (now under $400).

For the first year or so after moving I could charge at 120V at work which would have been fine since a full charge took about 9 hours. Unfortunately there were many plugins and only a few outlets so I usually charged about 4 hours (I get to work early so no initial competition).

Eventually, my workplace got 240V charging so I now drive mostly electric on a 90-100 miles daily commute in a car with an EPA 35 mile estimated EV range.

GM slightly overestimates charging time for worst-case low voltage conditions just like Toyota did with the Prius Plugin. I recall that my 9 hour full 120V charge was listed as a 10 hour charge in the Volt Owner manual. I'm guessing the same is true for the 2016 Volt so the typical full 120V charge time is probably about 12 hours rather than 13. Someone with a 40 mile daily commute will need 9 hours to recharge.

The same applies to someone with a Tesla Model S. They may have a 250+ mile EV range but if they typically drive 40 miles on their daily commute they could easily plug in at home on 120V. With a Model S you could even drive farther on some nights or the weekend and then gradually recharge the pack during the week. Maybe you drive 80 miles on Sunday on the weekend. By charging an hour or two longer each weeknight than you need for your commute to work you could fully or near fully recharge the pack by the next weekend. Similar things apply in a scaled down manner to the Volt's 53 mile range pack.

The point is that charge times and requirements for 240V are not strictly tied to the full EV range of the car. Nobody "has to" get 240V charging at home -- not even a Tesla owner. Many plugin owners may have the option to choose to do so at their convenience because of their driving pattern, the availability of workplace charging, and the capacity and range of their car's battery pack. Owners of a PHEV, like the Volt, have added flexibility.

 

Buy the Prius!!!


DBCassidy

 

That's a red-herring, subject matter having nothing to do with the point of excluding detail.

When total cost of ownership excludes that detail, it's misleading... or cherry-picking... or greenwashing. However it is label, it is a clear omission of information a person would use as part of the purchase decision.

It's also downplay. Gen-1 owners overwhelmingly requested an increase in range. GM has been promoting the benefits of the increase too.

 

Yep, GM will promote anything they can, however, the smart consumer knows better than to fall for GMs' rubbish.

DBCassidy

 

How could it? Availability was limited to a quota. You cannot judge demand when supply is restricted.

 

The real "red-herring" was your bold statement that:

As I noted, there are many many real-world scenarios which falsify that assertion.

To pick another example, someone could even live ~40 miles from work (similar to me) and charge at 120V. If they can fully charge at work on 240V, then they will have ~13 miles remaining when they get home at night. They would only need to plug in at 120V for 6-7 hours to top off their battery before driving 40 miles to work again in the morning without using any gasoline.

And, of course, if you need to drive a few miles on the gas engine every once in a while that's okay. The fueleconomy.gov CO2 emissions figures already assume and factor in some gasoline miles in the 2016 Volt's 220g per mile US national grid number (which is based on 2009 coal use and is exaggerated). Using fueleconomy.gov's grid data, driving just on US average grid electricity in a 2016 Volt is CO2 equivalent to a gasoline car getting around 54 mpg.

 

And that's called taking out of context, which the sentence following provided.

Again, the point is that timing should not be excluded. Being constructive means identifying all aspects of ownership.

 

Failure or Success can not yet be assigned to the Volt 1. Many, Many, companies lose money on the first rev of a product to a) get the consumer in the mode of buying their brand, b) not giving money to the competitor, and c) giving the company the time to improve the product to be better than the competition. Price is the main barrier, in my opinion, to mass adoption of a car, and PHEV in particular. Prius I helped ease FUD about these new fangled cars and gave Toyota experience in making them and working out the software.

Volt 1 will only be a failure if GM decides to kill the Volt line, along with the Bolt. I despise GM, but am wishing them well with the Volt and Bolt.