2018 Atlantic hurricane season

This by tradition extends from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Colorado State Univ. prediction as of April 5
14 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes

Somewhat above multi-decadal averages in all categories. Notably it is also above last year's April prediction, which tuned out to be substantially too low.

This will be updated and other forecasting groups will speak up soon. I'll post those I see, as I hope other tempestologists here will do.

 

NOAA prediction as of May 24:
10 to 16 named storms
5 to 9 hurricanes
1 to 4 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes

 

And it's on. Named storm Alberto is expected to bring heavy rain to Gulf Coast.

 

Accuweather forecast (from April 2):

12 to 15 named
6 to 8 hurricanes
3 to 5 majors

Three forecasts above are notably similar. I've not yet found forecast by CFAN (one is supposed to pay for that ). But they anticipated accumulated cyclone energy of 132 as of last December. Revised downward to 73 as of April 2018. Thus CFAN may be only entity outside consensus clump here. Specifically, on the low side.

 

CFAN forecast (from June 1):

??? named (not predicted it seems)
4.3 hurricanes
1.6 majors

They also forecast
63 N Atl ACE
0.4 US landfalls

CFAN is notably lower than those above, and their accumulated cyclone index forecast can be seen compared to actual range, from 40 to 250 (1995 through 2017). It might be claimed that 0.4 labdfalls has already been exceeded. Depends on how narrowly one defines Alberto, Which arrived as sunbtropical. To which I say ??

 

Another area, east Pacific has Hurricane Aletta, promising to be even more powderpuffy.

 

Perhaps you'd consider (low-end) CFAN predictions a dud. Perhaps you'd consider (above average) other predictions duds if only a few 'who cares?' islands get whipped.

Hurricanes are not purely evil. On local scales they mix 10s of vertical meters of seawater. Good for fish. On basin scale they transport energy from low to high latitudes. Perhaps I could think if a way to call that beneficial.

No need to list all reasons they are considered harmful. In general I am trying to train myself away from looking at things through a purely human 'lens'. For no reason I could strongly defend. It is just a rare way of thinking and might lead to insights.

 

Less succinctly than above, east Pacific has Hurricane Bud. It may get to cat4 before weakening, and cross Baja and north into Mexico. Both Aletta and Bud reached this intensity, at least briefly.

Since I cannot stay on topic, I change (local) rules to allow any current hurricane.

 

Tropical storm Beryl (center) will pass south of Puerto Rico and across Haiti on Monday.

Its winds are not strong enough to due damage unless a tarp of some sort is your residential roof. Common in both PR and H.

 

Beryl much weaker from wind shear. Dipping your toes in hot water is just not enough when shear is being such an aggressive barber.

Meanwhile Chris will strengthen off mid-Atlantic coast and continue offshore.

No other short-term risks appear. I watch CIMSS East Atlantic 850 mb vorticity as a spectator sport. So, on about your business...

 

It so happened that during some major 2017 Atlantic hurricanes, solar activity interfered with radio:

Solar flares disrupted radio communications during September 2017 Atlantic hurricanes -- ScienceDaily

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This year remains quiet in N. Atl. I am watching East Atlantic 850 vorticity at CIMSS especially around Canary Islands. They are canaries in coal mine, so to speak.

 

This year remains quiet in N. Atl. Pacific has been more interesting. Currently Hurricane Lane is strong and will pass south of Hawaiian Islands in about 4 days.

 

Those whose roofs are blue polyethylene sheets, most especially.