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2021 hurricanes

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, May 21, 2021.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Several predictions have been made for N. Atlantic and those I've seen are very similar. Here is what they generally say

    Named storms 18, hurricanes 8, major (cat 3 to 5) hurricanes 4.

    This is above average for recent decades but less than 2020 had. Last year ran out of letters.
     
  2. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    They always predict an above average storm season.....just like gamblers always come out "slightly ahead" when they visit a casino.

    Last year WAS an unusually active year though.
    Not sure about storm intensity per kilapost/dollar squared "compared" with other years.....but they 'did' run out of non Greek letters for sure.
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    2014 was a below average year and predicted pretty well. 2009 was also low, but over predicted until mid-season when everybody 're adjusted' downward.

    One way to justify high predictions perhaps is to avoid under preparing (ah Galveston). It only takes one well-aimed spinner...

    But I take the point that websites clicks matter nowadays. Everybody agreeing is a new thing though. Maybe long-range models are growing some teeth :D
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we're just barely getting out of winter :rolleyes:
     
  5. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Hurricane season is June through November and it is about a quarter till June now.....
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    wxman likes this.
  7. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    It will.
    We used to call a 40 MPH storm in the Gulf that brings 6-8A" of rain.....Tuesday.

    BUT....TWC needs revenue, and the kids in the 403rd wing need to practice on SOMETHING.
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm more concerned with the heat from out west
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Anywhere on the Gulf Coast, more than 5 inches of rain without a tropical storm or stronger would be a record.

    How many days of tropical storms or stronger happening in that area is not known to me but I am willing to guess 30 days per decade. Call it one in a thousand. Tuesdays are much more common than that.
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    build a nationwide water pipeline system
     
  11. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    You may want to re-check that.
    We've already had 6 inches during one weekend this year.
    According to the NWS we "average" 68" of rain per year and close to 8" a month from May thru July....BUT like the NHFC, the NWS uses words like "unprecedented" and "above average" all too much.....because: Revenue.

    Pretty soon they'll have to either re-adjust the "averages" or get a dictionary and look up words like "unprecedented."

    But hey....our buildings all have low flo shower nozzles and commodes to.....ah......"save water." (n)
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I did look for daily rain distribution data from NWS coop observers but data are not presented in an amenable fashion. If this is a matter of interest, we'll need to get past that, and then exclude days when tropical storms or stronger are on scene. Done well, it could turn into a large task.

    But I see value there in the context that recent climate change has been implicated in more intense rainfall. A few publications have considered it, but none I've seen look at the Gulf Coast.

    One among several projects I'm sorry to say.

    Oh but a 'good one' just came up in search. Lake Charles LA got 12.5 inches on 2021 May 17:

    Flooded homes, roads in Lake Charles, with more rain to come

    With no tropical storm to 'blame'. So use that Monday as an example, unless/unless one of us goes after big data :)
     
  13. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Right now our rainometer says a little less than 5” in 12 hours.
    Airport data closer to the “strike cone” suggests less rain (4”?) with average winds over time 20-ish gusting into the 40s - but that’s how swirlies work sometimes.
    Not great flying WX if you’re a light sport or UAS pilot but nothing to write home about.

    We’ve had 2 local rain events of >6” since January and just last Sunday there were local winds well in excess of 50 during one of the strong summer storms that are common to the Gulf South.
    The Gulf of Mexico is a pretty dang efficient heat exchanger!
    Just ask Europe.
    Like the moon…it is also a harsh mistress.
    Every now and then it can produce some exceptionally powerful local storms that can harvest even otherwise seasoned boaters who get caught looking the other way.
    Wake low - Wikipedia
    Seacor Power - Wikipedia
    Fortunately, summer squalls come and go.
    UNfortunately….people sometimes don’t see em coming.

    Tropical storms are high volume dealers, and you get DAYS of warning.
    Statisticians, politicians and other people who lie with numbers also have more time to diddle with the data.

    A person who would otherwise die from eating too many cheeseburgers gets to be a ‘hurricane victim’ if they kick off on the right date.
    Somebody who always drives too fast during one of our frequent tropical downpours will probably be rebranded as a Tropical Storm Victim today somewhere in the 3 “affected states.”

    Commercials cost money, and we have an economy to wake back up.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Hurricane Elsa dropped a notch, and with a lot of Cuba to scrape over, will stay just a tropical storm (in all likelihood). Meanwhile it is dumping on Haiti and almost all media coverage is elsewhere.
     
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  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I'm currently watching The (US) Weather Channel on internet, which is not hard to find, even here :D

    I'm actually surprised by how much they are pumping up this minor (for Florida) event. Call me naive...
     
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  16. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Commercials....

    One of the reasons that TWC has to have all of those zany not-weather shows like Ice Road Truckers, and Fatties in the Forest is that their viewership is sorta like CNN's.

    People click in when something unusual is going on, but unless you're in some roadside grocery store between checkers games, how long can you sit around and talk about the weather???
     
    #16 ETC(SS), Jul 5, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2021
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    cuba has evacuated a lot of people, maybe there's more possibility than being reported
     
  18. Merkey

    Merkey Active Member

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    The media motto...if it burns it earns, if it bleeds it leads.
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Ten minutes ago I would have said hurricane recon flight Teal 72 is headed back to the barn (Biloxi MS) after bouncing through Elsa for ~half day and dropping dropsondes, and other things they do.

    But no, it has turned back into the froth, and large efforts are being made to 'science and data' even this low-power player. One must appreciate work done by these gangs, whenever spinners get within fuel range.
     
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    elsa passed by today. some flooding/high winds. we got another 31/2" on top of the recent 5 1/2". i think we're good for awhile, but this looks like a pattern.

    we've been in a drought for 2 1/2 years, so it's a good thing, unless you're on vacation