There isn't enough water left in the atmosphere to get a good Hurricane going in the Pacific, it's all falling up and down the Australian east coast ..... I was born and raised in the NSW South Coast area, been away for 8 yrs, can't remember this much rain over so many mths .... it usually comes in, drenches the place to the point of minor flooding, then leaves 3 days or at the most, a week later. Been here since June and witnessed 5 yrs rainfall for the Mannum SA region .... nothing ever gets to dry out, but everything is green, even things that aren't supposed to be, like concrete paths ..... T1 Terry
H. Kiko approaches Hawaii, with more media attention than plausibly anticipated effects. Even so it will delight surfers, especially those who survive. To pass by North with most rain up there. Windy rain accumulation: == I am off to Japan for a week, confident that PC will manage w/o me. For a while
H. Gabrielle recurves typically and will later go to Spain. There to alleviate drought and thrill some surfers, most of whom will survive. Next two forming will also recurve and add to N Atl annual tally. But not to affect US. -- H. Ragasa is a super typhoon on this side of Pacific. Today getting news coverage for passing south of Hong Kong with some effect there. Guangdong Province evacuated a million people it seems. N. Vietnam may get more from it, before it gets starved of water supply over land.
Haven’t studied it but sounds serious. Later today will look at satellite data. Lowest pressure? Bob Wilson
I read today it was 2 million evacuated. They are not in one group en mass. Cloud cover probably prevents satellite observation
Melissa tropically stormed for about 4 days without moving far. Reached hurricane status on Oct 25 and rapidly intensified. It has now found legs to the great disadvantage of Jamaica. Even as a small target, Jamaica has had a long list of destructive storms. Gilbert in 1988 was strongest since first recorded (1722), but Melissa may do more total damage. Stronger (5 vs. 3) and moving slower than Gil. Rainfall totals will be among largest hurricane soaks ever. Ships and aircraft that have not already fled have uncertain futures. Jamaica's two main crops (bananas and that other one) have more predictable futures. Then onward to eastern Cuba. Models generally agree about substantial weakening before and I hope they’re right. My concern is that Jamaica is not big and tall enough to diminish Melissa that much. Then on towards usual targets to the Northeast. Haiti is getting rain from this with much more to come. US Navy has moved assets into the general vicinity and it would be most pleasing to see those involved in recovery efforts soon. -- Somebody put a lot of effort into this: List of Jamaica hurricanes explained
Funds will be needed maan. This will be a thumpin'. Jamaica is a tourism money magnet, and that aspect at least will be rebuilt. As for the rest ... Cuba will suffer less, how much less we don't yet know. It has less access to rebuilding money from anywhere.
Hurricanes do damage every year and discerning trends requires years. If we focus on richer areas, damage trends are confounded with built stock values, But most places where hurricanes do damage are not rich. If we want to know of climate change is making these things worse, even longer time scales need to be examined. Earth's climate is variable year to year; always has been, and might not become less so when warmer conditions prevail. Understanding of this remains limited. Most hurricanes display their rage at sea, where ships now know to run away. Where ships of yore knew not to run away, well, they went down. H. Melissa is among the minority crossing land, and will have her fierce sway.
