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90% EV: Good, but Future?

Discussion in 'Prime Main Forum (2017-2022)' started by mr88cet, Feb 1, 2018.

  1. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    An interesting thought question has been rolling around the back of my mind of late:

    Let’s assume I’m able to indefinitely continue 90% EV mode, or at least 80% say, on my Prius Prime. What am I going to do, 15-20 years from now, with a 200Kmile car and a very-lightly-used 35Kmile engine?!

    I suppose I could just keep driving it, but everything else on it will be falling apart right and left, and its ADAS features, impressive as they are in 2017, will be laughably low-tech in 2030. “So wait, explain again, grandpa: why do you *drive* your car? Why not just leave it in auto-drive like everybody else?!”

    Of course, the battery’s capacity will gradually start fizzling. Well, it undoubtedly already has started dropping. The degradation is almost undetectable now, but I’m sure in a year or two it’ll be noticeably lower, meaning that I’ll gradually be using more gas.

    So then, maybe a 40-50Kmile engine. Hmmm... Not exactly virgin, but a still a disproportionately large amount of life left in it compared to the car as a whole.

    So, perhaps, after 90Kmiles, say, I decide whether I want to sell it off vs. replace the battery (and other stuff that’s deteriorating) and keep driving it up to a 400Kmiles? Will they be selling replacement batteries for it by then?

    There’s a huge asymmetry in wear going on here! How to manage the lift of the car in that light is ... an interesting question.

    Thoughts?


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    #1 mr88cet, Feb 1, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2018
  2. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Except for the ratio of EV/Gas, how is this any different from any other Prius? Same questions are faced by Gen1&2 owners right now. I went with a new battery and keep on driving; probably will do the same with the Energi.

    15-20 years from now I don't expect to be driving due to age/abilities but, more importantly, because autonomous vehicles/services will take care of my driving needs.
     
  3. JamesBurke

    JamesBurke Senior Member

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    Why do you need to have everything wear out together? Front and rear door hinges are not likely to see the same wear either. Does that really matter? Battery is the lowest tech in the car and easiest to substitute for if you had to. Power electronics and those motors not so much. By the way the ball joints are the same as on the 95 Corolla, 2000 Cellica, G1 Prius, and 05 Rav4. When the roof rusts through put in a sun roof and drive off into the sunset.
     
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  4. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    That’s precisely the difference: Unlike on a regular Prius, I’m hardly using my Prime’s engine at all.

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  5. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    That’s a reasonable question. The difference is that, as with most cars, quite a lot of the cost and value of a vehicle is its ICE. If I don’t get 200Kmiles worth of value out of a $10 rear-door hinge, that’s one thing, but if I ditch the car with only 35Kmiles miles on a $10K, 175Kmile ICE, then in a very real sense, I’m effectively throwing away ... $8K.

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    #5 mr88cet, Feb 1, 2018
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    you're only throwing money away if it is worth something, not because it isn't worn out.
    i have a lot of stuff in perfect condition that isn't worth anything.

    i have 18,000 miles on my 6 year old pip and using the engine less than ever. but the car is only worth what it's worth, and more people are concerned about the battery than the engine.

    there maybe people with primes who do a lot of hv, and someday would be willing to buy your low mile engine, but the number of low mile engines available will determine its value, not the low miles.
     
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  7. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    So, yes, it has also occurred to me that I might be able to get more for the car when I sell it, even if only so that somebody can salvage the engine out of it. That is, assuming I can somehow **prove** that the engine has as few miles on it as it in fact probably will.

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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    yeah, i've been keeping lifetime ev/hv miles, but if my 12v goes south, i'm toast.
     
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  9. ct89

    ct89 Active Member

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    I'm sure for a modest extra charge, Toyota could modify the engine to wear-out at about the same time as the motors. It might take a little work and it's not clear whether they will guarantee even wear-out but anything is possible if you are willing to pay for it....:)
     
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  10. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    Somewhat relatedly, do any of you know about how much O’Toyta charges (currently at least) for a replacement Prius Prime battery (meaning the 8.8KWh battery)? I think I’ve heard ~$5K somewhere.

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    #10 mr88cet, Feb 2, 2018
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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    someone just got a quote of $11,000. for a pip battery, installed.
     
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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    one way to save money would be to stop doing oil changes. that should bring the engine wear up a little at the same time.
    for me, that would add up to $1,000. to $1,500. over 15-20 years.
     
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  13. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    That has occurred to me as well, but I’m concerned that it would go off warranty if so.


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  14. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    So, maybe $15Kish?

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  15. mr88cet

    mr88cet Senior Member

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    Or make the brakes go bad prematurely, despite all our regenerative braking.

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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    there will come a tipping point where pure ev will work, if we live long enough. until then, at least engines can be recycled, low or high miles.
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    You have options:
    1. Trade it in on a Mirai; ship the Mirai to Plano TX; park it at 6565 Headquarters Dr, and; leave a sign on the windshield, "Gone to get some hydrogen."
    2. Trade it in on an Ioniq and; don't worry.
    3. Swap cars with @bisco, and; save 5 years of worry.
    Of course the simple answer is stop practicing the funeral march:


    Bob Wilson
     
    #17 bwilson4web, Feb 2, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
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