A frightening prediction of our oil crisis

great article... but as alarming as his predictions are, lets face it, he is stating the obvious.

his timeline might be off a bit, but the rest of the predictions are spot on. we are kidding ourselves if we think that this level of comsumption will go on forever. i have seen peak oil predictions ranging from 1998 to 2010. well, i think that it will happen in that time and then we be in trouble since its obvious that the oil companies are not spending money to look for alternatives to energy. they are going to ride it out as long as they can then take the money and retire on the stockpile of cash they have left.

 

Great thread.

Realistically, it will take much more than hybrids to curb our taste for imported oil. The US imports about 55-60% of its oil today, depending no what sources you find on the web. And transportation uses about 2/3 of the engergy we consume. So that would mean we would have to eliminate ALL cars to eliminate imported oil.

But what if we combine hybrid efficiency with other energy sources? The biodiesel hybrid? Ethanol? Solar and other electric generating stations with hyrids that plug in for some of their power?

Combine these with some of the creative (but more expensive oil substitutes noted above) and we can make a significant dent in the importation... It's going to be an interesting ten years coming up.

Ultimately, other substitutions will also happen: increased telecommuting, small neighborhoods organized around old town principles of having most common services located within walking distance, the return of public transportation, relocation of large offices from downtown to suburban offices closer to employees' homes. etc.

If anything needs to change it's our national attitude that we should pursue more oil at all cost instead of investing in these things now and being free from the tyranny of oil-driven domestic and foreign policy.

Sorry, I'm getting too politcal. I'll stop now... suffice it to say I'm proud of my fellow Prius owners for supporting an important step towards energy enlightment!

Gary

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(skruse\";p=\"84331)</div>

Whether you agree with his actions or not, Bush has lead on the war on terror and the forced culture change of the Middle East. He alone is responsible for our invasions of Afgahnistan and Iraq, the elections there, the inspiration given to others to force change, the Syrian withdrawal. Against all opposition he has forged ahead and imposed change where naysayers said it couldn't be done. Bush held the pack together in an election which was a referendum on his policies. He won re-election.

And I admit to having been one of the naysayers, the doubters, someone who has consistently misunderestimated Bush. Who was the genius who came up with the idea of making voters dip the forefinger into an ink well to vote? Eight million Iraqi defied Al Quada and voted, all proclaimed for a week the indelible mark to side with freedom and western ideals of government. Those ink stained forefingers marked the point at which Bush's policies were rendered obvious to all. It inspired the Lebanese to move against their occupying oppressors and Bush told Assad to go. When President who wages war with mighty army on your border gives a commandement, it is obeyed by the wise, so Assad is packing up.

If Gore were president, he would still have Janet Reno seeking a way to obtain a warrant to arrest bin Laden, who would be leading victory parades down the main street of Kabul.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(DaveinOlyWA\";p=\"84445)</div>

Agree somewhat.

Do some google work on "the devil's excretment". Many economists have come to the conclusion that easily aquired great wealth does terrible damage to a nation, and easily pumped oil fits that bill. The situation is akin to Spain in the days of the Treasure fleets when the America's were looted for the benefit of Madrid. When the looting stopped, so did the might of Spain. They became addicted to the easy wealth. The USA is NOT in the position of Saudia Arabia, Norway, etc. where the wealth is being squandered on a vast scale. The USA was rich before oil even became a fuel.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(timmsumm\";p=\"84438)</div>

Rising fuel costs are creating the demand for more Prius than what Toyota can produce, that along with the quality of the product. There are other fuel saving cars, but none nearly as nice. The market craves the Prius, I think Toyota could sell 20,000 a month easily if they could build them. I know someone who bought a camry because they couldn't get a Prius. This is happening everywhere, people would buy a Prius but the avaliable supply to buy is too low.

Demand has run well ahead of all expectations. Don't believe me? Just ask G.M. management.

 

well i hate to say it, but bush invading iraq just stems the flow of oil money that was ignoring a nation of impoverished people and was primary source of income to fund terrorism. ya saddam spent a lot on himself but a huge chunk went to terrorism. in fact after very optimistic estimates of saddams expenditures, analyst come up with the inevitable conclusion that either he squirreled away 750 billion in hidden swiss accounts (something most assumed but has now been proven to be false... he did put away about 9 billion or so) or spent the money to fund terrorism... the latter is nearly impossible to quantify, but everyday more and more evidence is uncovered

 

two fantastc sites for statistics and general information on petroleum in the USA are as follows:

www.eia.doe.gov
www.fedstats.gov

 

Actually my local Congressman gave a presentation on Peak Oil on the floor of the house:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html


[web:145649481d]http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html[/web:145649481d]


Also for another 20 mins:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5519.html


He is scheduled to talk again this weds night (10pm+)

At least someone in Congress knows what's going on and is trying to do something about it. Maybe alittle hope??

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Robert Taylor\";p=\"84503)</div>

The old saying of "easy come easy go" comes to mind.

Ever know anybody who won or inherited a lot of money? I've had the luck (?) of knowing several folks who either inherited or in one case won substantial amounts.

More than enough that if wisely invested they could have "retired" at 28 and taken up gardening or whatever.

With no exception, within a handful of years it was all gone. Completely p***** away to the point they lost everything.

Have you ever known anybody who has really applied themselves, worked their a** right off? Since every dollar was by the sweat of their brow, they tend to enforce prudent fiscal restraint. Least of their worries is trying to impress the neighbor or society in general.

In the larger sense, the cheap oil and cheap credit of the 60's and again the 90's came at a very high price. Nothing is free or really cheap, you always end up paying for it down the road.

So it looks like the consequences are finally catching up to us. The only people truly shocked by this inescapable outcome are those who were wrapped up in the oil/credit binge.

 

yep... know a couple that split a lottery jackpot 5 years ago. they opted for one time pay out and got 600,000. in less than 3 years they were broke and had only one car left to show for it. couldnt afford to keep the house they had bought... or the boat... or the cycles... the hubby kept his job the wife did not (she worked for the state and made very good money)

 

Jayman & Dave,

There are two kinds of lottery losers, those who do not win and those that win big. Define big by whether or not the winner changes their lifestyle any. Some dude who wins 20 bucks isn't going to change his lifestyle.

The ONLY guy to win multi-millions in a lottery and come out of it well that I know of was a guy who gave every red cent of it away immediately to a charity that gave out university sholarship grants in his name. He did not spend a plug nickel on himself.

By the way, I am one of those who voted against the vice of a state lottery and there still is not one here.

 

actually there is two movies, the first is Three Day's of the Condor, and the second is Mad Max Road Warriors.

 

Robert:

A very wise man.

Jay

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(\"jayman\";p=\"84535\")</div>

You've just made the best explanation for why the Estate Tax needs to stay just the way it is that I've heard in a long time.
Bill Gates has said that he will only leave each of his kids no more than 10 million dollars. He knows how badly he will hurt them if he gives them all of it.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(DaveinOlyWA\";p=\"84512)</div>

Where did you get that information? Everything I've read over the last few years concludes that Saddam gave no more than lip service and a few hundred thousand dollars to terrorists of the last 5 years or so of his reign. HIs big support of terrorism was over a decade ago.

The country that has clearly been the biggest financial backer of terrorism in the last 20 years is Saudi Arabia. It's run by the guy Bush was walking with the other day, in that photo- op that was in all the papers.

 

Gates will only leave each kid 10 million?

Oh my! They'll STARVE!!!!

 

You are right in that 10 million is a ton of money. But he has the potential to give each of them about 40-80 billion each.

That's about $40,000,000,000 to $80,000,000,000. Of course, it Gates and his wife died prematurely, the affect on MS would be such that his worth would be closer to the lower figure.

40 billion dollars is 40 thousand million.

40 thousand million is a lot more dangerous than 11 million.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(prius04\";p=\"84800)</div>

You won't get any argument from me on *that* point.

We have this fantasy of a "growing" economy based on the myth of "cheap" oil from the mideast. In essence, it's a Faustian Agreement (A deal with the Devil).

By the time you factor in all the hidden subsidies (Constant military presence, loss of American lives to "defend" the oil, financial support of terrorism, low fuel prices encouraging improper consumption habits, etc) that "cheap" oil from the mideast suddenly becomes very expensive indeed.

It's just like shopping at Wally World: in the long run you can't afford the "savings" of that cheap source.

When you consider that most of the oil in the mideast is out of the ground at $1-$4 a barrel, and with a barrel around $55 spot market, that illustrates the margin that countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait enjoy.

That's plenty of money left over to funnel into all sort of nasty side ventures. How ironic that we're happily funding the very agent of our destruction!

It's not just Dubya that has on industrial knee pads sucking up to Saudi Arabia. Clinton did too, so did Reagan. Carter and Ford found out what happens when you really piss them off.

Look, to me its just a numbers game. I'm good with Calculus and Statistics. When you make a half-a** effort - or better - to figure out the cost structures, that mideast oil is actually too expensive for us to consume.

But as long as we continue to subsidize that black s*** at the expense of increasing our debt and increasing our body count, then folks will still happily but ignorantly buy a giant SUV that gets 12 MPG.

Soon we won't be able to continue this magic subsidy, as a new wealthy and powerful competitor has entered into the equation: China. We certainly can't drop hints of military involvement with China, as they have a *proven* stockpile of WMD and probably aren't afraid to use it.

I'm hopeful a dramatic increase in crude oil will spur development of new and even novel energy sources. But I'm not going to sell my mostly self-sufficient hobby farm anytime soon.