A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says

Discussion in 'Prime Main Forum (2017-Current)' started by HPrimeAdvanced, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. HPrimeAdvanced

    HPrimeAdvanced Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2017
    2,297
    3,500
    0
    Location:
    Anaheim, CA
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Advanced
    A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says

    https://search.app.goo.gl/3Tuq

    Shared from my Google feed

    WOW!! Auto Executives: what a bunch of stupid losers!!

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
  2. huskers

    huskers Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2005
    2,492
    2,406
    0
    Location:
    Nebraska
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    John Rockefeller thought the electric light bulb was a fad.
     
  3. Dxta

    Dxta Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    1,868
    711
    0
    Location:
    Lagos
    Vehicle:
    2008 Prius
    Model:
    II
    Well, they're only scares of where the advancement in electric cars, would throw them. Either sacked front their present positions, as head of fossil fuel applications, or ....
     
  4. drysider

    drysider Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2008
    823
    325
    1
    Location:
    Liberty Lake WA
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius
    Model:
    Four
    Using current technology, I agree that they will not be a big factor in sales volume. There are issues with range and recharge time that have to be resolved. A plug-in with a 100mile range is the real future, at least for now.
     
    bill188 and KCWhitney like this.
  5. SteveMucc

    SteveMucc Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2017
    391
    262
    0
    Location:
    Kentucky
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    with current infrastructure or anything in the near future that's certainly true.

    if we replaced all the ice cars with bev's there's not enough electrical infrastructure to charge them (I mean power plants and transmission lines, forget about charging stations).

    whose going to pay for more fossil fuel or nuke plants?
     
    HPrimeAdvanced likes this.
  6. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2009
    4,993
    3,623
    0
    Location:
    Westminster, Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    "Yet, we also heard automakers say “we are making electric plug-ins until hydrogen fuel cell vehicles take hold,” like Hyundai.

    I can’t wrap my head around that. It simply doesn’t make sense for passenger cars. Electric cars are much cheaper to operate, batteries are recyclable, and contrary to what a lot of people are claiming, the infrastructure problem is actually easier to solve for battery-electric vehicles than for fuel cell hydrogen vehicles."

    I know a ton about this, and he's wrong. However, in reality fuel cells are only better as long as batteries still stink like they do today. If batteries improve by a factor of 3, or even possibly a factor of 2, then fuel cells are no longer really needed. At the moment, a plug-in hybrid with a fuel cell as a range extender is far more optimal than a BEV.
     
    #6 Lee Jay, Jan 8, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2018
    KCWhitney, Montgomery, padroo and 2 others like this.
  7. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2009
    4,993
    3,623
    0
    Location:
    Westminster, Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    Not true.
     
    DjGruv and HPrimeAdvanced like this.
  8. David Beale

    David Beale Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    5,963
    1,947
    0
    Location:
    Edmonton Alberta
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius
    When the Ford Model T started production everyone thought it would not be practical and would not sell. The "roads" of the time were atrocious! Just watch some of the old videos (from film of course) where they were trying to drive through 2 foot deep mud. But when they "sold like hotcakes" the govt. had to put in proper roads, and later the interstate system in the U.S.

    You know, Toyota is partially guilty of this shortsightedness. They -were- going to ignore EVs and were betting on the Mirai. They have just announced they will be producing and selling EVs starting in 2020 (I think that was the date in the announcement). Maybe the success of the Panasonic/Toyota battery research branch changed their minds.

    EVs are still not selling well at all, but I suspect they will eventually when people get used to the idea. They are currently rather expensive up front and the range is only recently getting to an acceptable level. The infrastructure will follow once they become popular.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    23,463
    13,233
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Customers vote with their wallets. Buy enough BEVs or plug-in hybrids and the manufactures will get a clue.

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    88,814
    39,713
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    maybe they aren't old enough to remember ken olsen.
     
  11. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2006
    10,859
    3,346
    1
    Location:
    Northern VA (NoVA)
    Vehicle:
    2006 Prius
    Wow that's surprising. @bisco- can you wrap your head around that fuel cell talk?
    Tends to say CARB is smart for giving fuel cells a chance (and that can't be right? can it?)
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    88,814
    39,713
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    i'm no expert, but seeing where tesla is, one little newbie car company, and where fuel cells are, 5 or 10 of the largest car companies in the world, i don't see one shred of evidence that fuel cells are going to reach the 4 major tech problems they both face right now.

    1) range
    2) refuel time
    3) cost
    4) infrastructure

    and i still haven't seen how turning one energy source into another, then using that one to create another that powers the car is more efficient.
    the only thing i can figure with these guys is that they don't want the taxpayer gravy trend to end before someone figures out that the emperor has no clothes.
     
    Montgomery and HPrimeAdvanced like this.
  13. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2009
    4,993
    3,623
    0
    Location:
    Westminster, Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    It's not more efficient, it's higher density.

    Li-ion - 200-250Wh/kg
    H2 FC - 800-1,000Wh/kg
     
    pilotgrrl likes this.
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    88,814
    39,713
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    if density were the only issue, than that would be fine.
     
    HPrimeAdvanced likes this.
  15. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2009
    4,993
    3,623
    0
    Location:
    Westminster, Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    Lack of density (of batteries) is a huge issue. It's why Tesla's are so heavy.

    Further, batteries are expensive. A battery that can do what the ICE can do in the Prius Prime (store and produce 150kWh) would cost as much as the entire car does at retail. An H2 FC acting as a sustainer can cost about the same as an ICE system does (about 1/5th as much as a battery).
     
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    88,814
    39,713
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    your thinking in todays terms. neither car is effective today, although bev's are lightyears ahead of fuel cells.
    what makes you think the future fuel cell will be cheaper, have longer range, fuel faster and have appropriate fueling infrastructure compared to future battery technology?
     
    HPrimeAdvanced likes this.
  17. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2009
    4,993
    3,623
    0
    Location:
    Westminster, Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    Correct.
    Incorrect.

    No, they are quite substantially inferior.

    They are cheaper (by far) right now.

    Three times the energy density, remember?

    They can already fuel about 10 times faster than BEVs of today.

    It would have cost less to build appropriate H2 fueling infrastructure that it cost to build the supercharger network.

    You aren't paying attention. I'll quote myself: "If batteries improve by a factor of 3, or even possibly a factor of 2, then fuel cells are no longer really needed."

    But then who knows when or if we'll get that battery technology. However, until we do, fuel-cells as sustainers for a PHEV will still be superior from a cost, weight, and speed of fueling point of view.
     
  18. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2016
    1,206
    1,143
    1
    Location:
    Coronado Island, California
    Vehicle:
    2016 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    As the owner of an electric bicycle, an electric drone and various battery powered devices, I have to agree. Charge times and range are the grim reapers of the electric car movement, Tesla included. The only viable solution I have seen proposed was the short-lived battery swapping station idea by Elon.
     
    #18 William Redoubt, Jan 8, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2018
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    88,814
    39,713
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    how on earth is a fuel cell vehicle cheaper than a bev?
     
  20. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2009
    4,993
    3,623
    0
    Location:
    Westminster, Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    You still aren't paying attention.

    "...a plug-in hybrid with a fuel cell as a range extender is far more optimal than a BEV..."

    "...fuel-cells as sustainers for a PHEV will still be superior from a cost..."

    Basically, it's simple.

    A battery can supply all the power needed for a BEV very easily (see Prius Prime) and all the rest of the batteries are nothing but energy providers, and bad ones because of low energy density.

    A fuel cell can supply all the energy needed for PHEV very easily thereby replacing all those unneeded (except for energy) batteries.

    Combining the two, the battery can be 1/10th the size it would need to be in a pure BEV (again, see Prius Prime) and the fuel cell can be 1/10th the size it would need to be in a fuel-cell car (i.e. 1/10th the size of the Mirai fuel cell). 1/10th + 1/10th < either whole.
     
    Montgomery likes this.
Loading...