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Agriculture and the carbon cycle

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Nov 20, 2014.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In the latest issue of Nature (journal) there are two back-to-back publications about this. Zeng et al. Gray et al. It is an unusual thing, and how nice to be a fly on the wall to know how Nature editors decided to handle this. :)

    Anyway, we read two similar messages, that crops in general, and reduced-tillage cropping are both sucking up the carbon. As agriculture is essential for the human enterprise to survive any troubles that climate change might present, this is quite an important topic.

    I'll ask again that our Greg apply his self-proclaimed knowledge of the subject to guide us through rough water. This thread is yours, or start a new one.

    These two publications say several things we did not really know before (else Nature would not have bit). Thus I hope they are part of Greg's forthcoming discussion.
     
  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    An issue with reduce-tillage, or no tillage, farming for the environmentally conscious, or just conscious, is that it generally relies on Round-Up ready or other GMO crops. It has another plus though in lower erosion rates.
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Another new one:

    Madana M.R. Ambavaram, Supratim Basu, Arjun Krishnan, Venkategowda Ramegowda, Utlwang Batlang, Lutfor Rahman, Niranjan Baisakh & Andy Pereira. (in press) Coordinated regulation of photosynthesis in rice increases yield and tolerance to environmental stress. Nature Communications doi:10.1038/ncomms6302

    Yield optimization for particular crops began in earnest with "Green Revolution' about 50 yrs ago. As the present article suggests, there may still be room for improvement.
    I take no position on GMO, although it is certainly relevant.

    Here is one interesting figure from the article. Shows 'wild type' and their 2 new variety responses to CO2 conc. The flatlining above 400 ppm is pretty much what you'd expect if something other than C becomes limiting. Also notice the steep slope from 300 to 400. May not be that way for crops in general, but hints that some of the yield increases we have seen come from that factor.
    PS asympt.png

    If there is a review paper on crop responses to past CO2 increases, I'd want to read it.
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Now that OCO-2 is about to survey the earth, these are very timely. In the lay literature:
    Source: Agricultural Production Affects Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Cycle | Climatology, Geophysics | Sci-News.com

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Happy to oblige; reduced tillage (and zero-tillage) reduce the amount of soil that lies fallow, breaking down organic matter, and emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It's closer the way nature intends it; an ecosystem undisturbed by ripping up the soils.

    Farmers around here started converting to minimum tillage over a decade ago. The results were so striking, that nearly everyone followed suit. Soil erosion is nearly nil, soil compaction is reduced, weeds and pests are more easily controlled under continuous-cropping. The land is much more productive as well. The old maxim of "giving the land a rest" by leaving it fallow has long been debunked. The land actually needs a rest from the shock of fallowing for a year.

    BTW, I don't have to self-proclaim anything. A university granted me both a bachelor's and master's degrees in plant and soil science, I worked as a professional agrologist for 30 years, and for the last 10 years, I've been working as an environmental scientist. I'm sure I can be forgiven for promulgating a few opinions about the environment now and then.
     
  6. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I might take issue with the notion that the amount of cropping has a direct bearing on CO2. Whether arable land is being used for growing crops or not, there are still plants growing on it. Whether it's trees, grass or weeds, they are still using and releasing carbon. Growing more crops for carbon-control would be a minuscule and insignificant endeavor.

    I still believe we vastly overestimate our own importance on this planet. We still occupy barely occupy 4% of the planet, and of that, a fraction is suitable for growing food. I don't think Mother Earth would even notice if we started "cropping for carbon."
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Here is the press release: Crops Help To Drive Greater Seasonal Change In CO2 Cycle » Public Relations | Blog Archive | Boston University

    * * *
    Crops Help To Drive Greater Seasonal Change In CO2 Cycle
    in 2014, News Releases
    November 19th, 2014

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, November 19, 2014

    CONTACT: Kira Jastive, 617-358-1240 or [email protected]

    Boosts in the productivity of corn and three other food staples have significantly modified the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere

    BOSTON – November 19, 2014 – Each year in the Northern Hemisphere, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) drop in the summer as plants inhale, and then climb again as they exhale and decompose after their growing season. Over the past 50 years, the size of this seasonal swing has increased by as much as half, for reasons that aren’t fully understood. Now a team of researchers led by Boston University scientists has shown that agricultural production may generate up to a quarter of the increase in this seasonal carbon cycle, with corn playing a leading role.

    “In the Northern Hemisphere, there is a strong seasonal cycle of vegetation,” says Mark Friedl, professor in BU’s Department of Earth and Environment and senior author of a paper about the research published today in Nature. “Something is changing about this cycle; the ecosystems are becoming more productive, pulling in more atmospheric carbon during the summer and releasing more during the dormant period.”

    Most of this annual change is attributed to the effects of higher temperatures driven by climate change—including longer growing seasons, quicker uptake of carbon by vegetation, and the “greening” of higher latitudes with more vegetation. “But that’s not the whole story,” says Josh Gray, BU research assistant professor and lead author on the paper. “We’ve put humans and croplands into the story.”

    The scientists gathered global production statistics for four leading crops—corn, wheat, rice and soybeans—that represent about 64 percent of all calories consumed worldwide. They found that production of these crops in the Northern Hemisphere above the tropics has more than doubled since 1961, and translates to about a billion metric tons of carbon captured and released each year.

    These croplands are “ecosystems on steroids,” says Gray, noting that they occupy about 6 percent of the vegetated land area in the Northern Hemisphere but are responsible for up to a quarter of the total increase in seasonal carbon exchange of atmospheric CO2, and possibly more.

    This growth in seasonal variation doesn’t have a huge impact on global terrestrial carbon uptake and release, since essentially all carbon in the harvested crops is released each year.

    However, understanding the effects of agricultural production, the researchers say, will help to improve models of global climate, particularly in examining how well natural ecosystems will buffer rising levels of CO2 in the future.

    Funded primarily though programs supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the study began in a dinner conversation among the BU scientists, who use remote sensing to study changes on the earth’s surface, and atmospheric chemist Eric Kort of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

    Kort, a co-author on a 2013 paper by Heather Graven of Imperial College, London and colleagues that demonstrated the overall shift in seasonal CO2 levels but did not look in detail at agricultural production, suggested that contributions from crops could help to explain the magnitude of the shift.

    “We thought, somebody should do the math,” recalls Gray. Doing a quick analysis with data from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, he found that the contribution from crops could be in the right ballpark.

    Following up, the BU investigators from the Land Cover & Surface Climate Group collaborated with a team of experts including Kort, Steve Frolking of the University of New Hampshire at Durham, Christopher Kucharik of the University of Wisconsin at Madison, Navin Ramankutty (then at McGill University and now at the University of British Columbia at Vancouver), and Deepak Ray of the University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment. This team used data on Land Cover and Phenology from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Land Cover and Phenology along with many other measurements and statistical products in this study.

    The work highlighted the extraordinary increases in crop production in recent decades. “It’s a remarkable story of what we’ve done in agriculture in general,” says Friedl. “And in particular corn, which is one crop that’s just exploded. Corn alone accounts for two-thirds of the crop contribution to the increased seasonal exchange in carbon, and nearly 90 percent of that is produced in the Midwestern United States and China.”

    “Over the last 50 years, the area of croplands in the Northern Hemisphere has been relatively stable, but production has intensified enormously,” he adds. “The fact that such a small land area can actually affect the composition of the atmosphere is an amazing fingerprint of human activity on the planet.”

    Founded in 1839, Boston University is an internationally recognized institution of higher education and research. With more than 33,000 students, it is the fourth-largest independent university in the United States. BU consists of 16 schools and colleges, along with a number of multi-disciplinary centers and institutes integral to the University’s research and teaching mission. In 2012, BU joined the Association of American Universities (AAU), a consortium of 62 leading research universities in the United States and Canada.

    # # #
    * * *

    The full paper costs $32:
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7527/full/nature13957.html

    I am torn between getting a copy and waiting a year or so for OCO-2 data that will provide direct, global metrics.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #7 bwilson4web, Nov 21, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2014
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Your local librarian would probably be happy to snag a copy of the article in question.

    "Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.M.G. (joshgray AT bu DOT edu)"
    I'm sure you can decode this encrypted email address. It would be most unusual for him to decline a request for the pdf.

    As always, I have no objection to you financially supporting the Nature Publishing Group. But there are options...

    Reading comments at affinity websites (of all stripes) one often sees complaints about publishers' paywalls. I need a 'facepalm' emoticon for those.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "We still occupy barely occupy 4% of the planet, and of that, a fraction is suitable for growing food."

    I think that merits a closer look:

    Florian Zabel, Birgitta Putzenlechner, Wolfram Mauser:
    Global agricultural land resources – a high-resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.
    In: PLOS ONE
    Link: PLOS ONE: Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107522
    Date of Publication: 17.09.2014

    “The results show that, if one includes areas, such as the Nile Valley, which are already dependent on irrigation today, some 80 million square kilometers (km2) of the Earth's land surface is potentially suitable for agricultural use. This figure is equivalent to about half the total land surface of the Earth. However, approximately one-third of this land is currently designated as protected or consists of densely forested areas. If one assumes that these areas retain their status, this reduces the size of the pool of land suitable for agricultural use to some 54 million km2 – and of this, 91% is already under cultivation.”


    There are many other sources for such data. I also can mention that forests cover 40 million km2, with an additional 20 of woodland (forests also, but the trees are further apart). Put these all together with the 160, leaves about 50 that we can call ‘other’. Grassland, desert and ice-covered and maybe a few other categories. Anyway, ag = 49 / 160 now. Before agriculture (1000s years ago) forests were probably about 80. Got nibbled down, as did natural grasslands.

    I think 4% may be about right for urban areas, and was not intentionally misleading.

    There are other ways to look at “human appropriation natural resources”, and if one enters those words (no quote marks) into a favored internet search tool, all the doors will fly open. Maybe some surprises there, in terms of water, nitrogen, phosphorus and net primary productivity. Have a look around if you’re interested.
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The highest estimate that comes quickly to hand for urban area is 3.5 million sq km. 3.5 / 160 does not equal 4%. Perhaps the denominator excludes deserts and ice for that calculation? do not know.

    The wiki page called Earth has another set of numbers, NB they are millions of hectares (ha). 1 km2 = 100 ha.

    It is an excellent goal that all our readers have a general understanding of how much is covered by what.
     
    #10 tochatihu, Nov 21, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2014
  11. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    It's not urban or rural, it's areas classified as inhabited. I can't remember the source, but I'll let you know when I find it again.
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There is a really interesting GIS dataset on that:

    LandScan Home

    Using satellites and who knows what else, they map global human population density at a really fine scale.

    When the USGS earthquake (site) detects a significant one they immediately put up an estimate of fatalities and structural losses. Done by machine, based on estimated local ground motion and landscan. It is an amazing thing. Unrelated to agriculture of course, but I think that landscan was used in some way for the 'urban area is 3.5 million sq km.' estimate.
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    When forests are converted to agriculture, soil organic carbon is lost. Here is a new meta analysis:

    Global pattern of soil carbon losses due to the conversion of forests to agricultural land
    Xiaorong Wei, Mingan Shao, William Gale & Linhai Li
    Scientific Reports 4: 4062 DOI: 10.1038/srep04062

    Across climate zones the SOC loss ranges from 31 to 52%. Varies with climate, forest type and soil clay content. All that was generally known before, but meta analysis puts it together.

    Some agricultural systems are better than others in restoring SOC, but they should fairly consider the prior condition. It’s one of those ‘externalities’ that we just get away with. So far.

    Separately, grasslands are also converted to agriculture. This seems to have been less studied, but we have this:

    Conversion from agriculture to grassland builds soil organic matter on decadal timescales
    Kendra K. McLauchlan, Sarah E. Hobbie, & Wilfred M. Post
    Ecological Applications, 16(1), 2006, pp. 143–153.

    Showing SOC increase in US study areas.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Now that PC with its bells and whistles has returned, might we consider the future path of agriculture? Crops exposed to higher [CO2] are less nutritious (DOI: 10.1038/nature13179). Their nitrogen metabolism changes, not necessarily better for us (DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2183).

    I think we need an agrologist to sort these things out. Any takers?