Featured Anti-Plugin War is Heating up Fast

i agree with cycledrum. the current bev's are too limiting. and if we keep getting more of the same, it won't help much.
sure, we'll get better models someday, and that's when growth will really start to grow.

 

Rechargeable mower sounds nice but we have a really hilly yard with woods on the border so lots if crap to cut thru...maybe I do not know

slightly off topic, we were in Yosemite last Spring and the worker had a gaso leaf blower making so much smoke I thought it was so funny I tried to get a photo, maybe I got a photo but after he stopped due to people walking by...also it was some foreign imported brand. I donate to every year to National Parks please use it for something good.

 

there won't be any workers to run leaf blowers in the future, never mind rakes and brooms.good point. another thing is, we know a lot, they, likely know little. but what they do see, apart from sales numbers, are politicians moving and creating plug in friendly laws. again, we see the negatives, but a lot of states have created tax rebates and forced buy back of solar production. those types of things likely concern them more.
plus, they don't care if there isn't a model that's right for them (of course there isn't) but they do see the future if left unchecked.

 

Good to see that we are using gas to blow leaves around in a National Park. You wouldn't want to see a leaf in the wrong place in a park that has, probably 200 million trees.

Mike

 

Seems like PHEV and EV has just taken share from hybrid market as the total (hybrid/ev/phev) take rate (in US) is about 3% or so, about same as alt vehicle take rate in 2009 as I recall.

Hopefully the Model 3 will create a breakthrough. I don't see Bolt doing it. Not a 'cool' car like Model 3 will be.

 

I don't believe the evidence supports that position.
Yes, the plugin market has cannibalized some hybrid share, but the majority is coming from other places.
Hybrid U.S. marketshare did peak in 2013, but it really slowed down in 2009, long before any measurable sales in plugins.

Of the responders of polls, very few Tesla owners came from hybrids (<10%). Among Volt and Leaf owners the rate is higher, but not much.

Gas prices are the biggest contributing factor to hybrids loss marketshare. When gas prices increase, both hybrids and plugins will sell that much better.

 

Hummm, we see the Niro came in strong in February, ~2,100, and given the segment and past performance of the RAV4 hybrid, ~3,800, ~4,800, ~2,900, and ~3,100, it is reasonable to see Niro sales taking away from the RAV4. I would have expected Feb RAV4 sales to be ~3,800 units so we're seeing maybe 700 units lost to Niro. I'm looking at the Transit Diesel and RAV4 that seemed to somewhat track and then the Niro shows up.

Bob Wilson

 

my problem with the bolt is size. it should do okay, but we really need a 200 mile prius or larger.

 

Ever since I did the plug conversion to our Prius 2nd gen I have been asking and waiting for a 150 mile Prius.

 

It won't be in the current, standard frame. The weight and volume won't fit. Even a Prius v variant won't work. I know this because I have a BMW i3-REx and know the bottom of the vehicle pretty much as to be a huge battery pack. Look at the Tesla to see what a 150-200 mile EV needs to look like.

Bob Wilson

 

Electric cars don't need incentives to exist. It seems obvious that eliminating a $5000 tax credit on them is going to reduce sales in the short term, but it's a marketplace economy, and there are more people out there than just rich environmentalists who are interested. Electric vehicles have several potential advantages, depending on audience. There's a fuel cost advantage, a convenience advantage to charge at home, a torque advantage for performance enthusiasts, and probably others I'm not thinking of. And most people are going to buy one just because it's a good car, regardless of fuel system. There are enough electric vehicle types in development to appeal to a wide range of buyers, whether there are tax credits or not. And the biggest concerns, that batteries don't have enough range and make the cars too expensive, are being addressed by renewed research focus on increasing battery energy density and safety. It seems likely that within 10 years, there will be some electric vehicles that cost less than $20,000 and have the same range as the current Chevy Bolt. And that's truly mainstream.

 

The Transit is the full size van replacement for the old Econoline. I think any tracking with the Rav4 numbers would be coincidence; two very different markets.

The Sonic hatch wasn't always categorized as a station wagon under EPA. As a car, the cargo space pushed it into midsize.

Japan is still focused on FCEVs.

 

i disag board.
nonetheless, i still feel that a prius sized car, however it is developed for battery space, with a 150 mile minimum, will sell very well, whatever that means.

i mean the hatch is too small, what do you mean, is the sonic hatch as big as the prius? are they making a 200 mile sonic?

 

Bolt looks like a Honda Fit essentially.

Bolt - $36,600 USD (ok, alright, some might be able to get all of state and fed credit ($10k?))

Honda Fit - $16,000 (minimum $10k less than Bolt)

Wow, you really have to want an EV to buy Bolt, no matter what gizmos are on board.

Tesla is smart. Model 3 looks like a $35k car

 

With current battery technology, plug-in hybrids are the future. There is a gas station in Buffalo Breath, Montana, but no charging station. 5 minutes for gas or 8 hours for a 110v charge. Even a PI hybrid with a 25 miles range seems to sell pretty well. I am sure we will see a 150-200 mile Prius down the road. Why would Toyota undercut the Prime and time soon?

 

Early Bolt prototypes were called Sonic EV. GM is saying the Bolt is its own platform, but they started with a Trax, which is a lifted Sonic/Aveo. Photos I've seen of the Bolt's cargo area looks really close to my Sonic's. Hauling long things like a ladder are an issue, as with any short car, but the hatch can hold a lot of packages and luggage.

The Sonic has one cubic foot less space than the Prime in cargo and total by EPA specs. The Bolt has 2cu.ft. less cargo than the Sonic, but 4cu.ft. more passenger space. I Think the 27cu.ft. listed for the Prius is actually for the Two Eco; so space without spare. Even with spare, the Prius is two size classes bigger than a Sonic/Bolt; something is wrong if it didn't have more space.
Compare Side-by-Side

 

Toyota has been "undercutting" plugin vehicles for some time.
Hopefully that stops completely now that the Prime is in their lineup.

I also don't think a 150-200 mile range Prius would undercut the Prime.
Two different markets, with little, if any, overlap.

The market that wants a 200 mile electric range will be buying a Bolt, or within the year, a Model 3 or 2nd gen Leaf.
Toyota could stop that cut by having one of their own.

As for gas stations, I never stop at them, so I don't care if they have chargers or not.
The convenience of never needing to charge away from home unless vacationing is unbelievable. And on vacations, it isn't that big of a deal.