Any Aviation or Pilots got educated speculation on this?

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by GrumpyCabbie, Aug 24, 2015.

  1. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    Bit of a news story in the UK about a stunt jet crash on a busy highway. I know from previous experience that there are many educated people that frequent this forum. Anyone with aviation experience have any ideas on what caused this? Did the pilot black out or the engine fail, did he just mess up, did the plane stall? I'm curious how it happened and often those experienced in flying will have a good idea, though obviously with no proof.

    Shoreham Airshow space issues saw Red Arrows refuse to perform | Daily Mail Online

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  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I have to stop spitting AND POUNDING THE KEYS!!

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. HGS

    HGS Member

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    As an airline pilot, we don't know, and usually don't speculate. There are so many things that can cause these accidents. Many people are too quick to blame the pilot.

    Only a very long investigation will find the cause.

    Fighter pilots usually fight it to the end if there is a chance to save lives. They don't take the easy way out and eject.
     
  4. HGS

    HGS Member

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    I know the pilot didn't eject. I was just trying to say this pilot did very thing he could.

    In 38 years of military and airline aviation I've lost enough fellow pilots to fatal accidents.

    I never get used to it. Very sad.
     
  5. CrazyLee

    CrazyLee Member

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    News reports said the crash was from an air show maneuver (loop) that the pilot could not recover from. So tragic. They said 11 people died.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Near as I could tell he pulled the nose up as much as possible in the last seconds and the video suggests a stall started just before impact. I agree, wait for the accident report but the venue should not have been over areas, including roads, in use with people.

    Air show accidents happen and the lesson has been taught many, many times that it should not be anywhere near populated areas and that includes the road. The venue, the air space was wrong.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    (I am not a pilot, I do not even flap my arms when flying)

    As I read this article, 'wrong venue' stands out because no one was able to leave once there was an accident.
    Had the pilot pulled off a miracle and not killed anyone on the ground in the crash, the entire attendees are trapped on site. That could be a different, slow motion death for folks since there is only one road out. Think fuel leak.

    2015 Shoreham Airshow crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Much has been written here:
    Hawker Hunter down at Shoreham - PPRuNe Forums

    At airshows, all aerobatic maneuvers are to be performed in a 'box' that is unoccupied on the ground. As this pilot was over the roadway, he was outside the box. The accident investigation will be much more nuanced and detailed,
     
  9. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    How does one stall at such a low altitude when things had previously been ok? Did he realise he was too low and pulled up without enough thrust? Did the top of the loop look ok as was it too slow?

    And the UK is a populated island and to allow space that would be acceptable in the US would mean such events never happen here - which may well be the case in future.
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Grumpy, there seem to be a lot of videos made from different perspectives which no doubt will contribute to the investigation. Beyond saying that, it is too early to draw conclusions. If the airframe was totally consumed by fire, most of the forensics might come from those.

    Airshow aerobatic boxes can be 1 km squares, and (as I understand it) Shoreham provides this.

    You are not wrong to be deeply concerned about this tragedy. But I would not be prepared to say that the airshow itself was improperly planned. Your country has many airshows, for important historical reasons. I for one hope that they will continue in the future.

    More than 20 people lost their lives in this catastrophe. That is unacceptable. For me it is like this: improve planning, or deny young Britons the chance to actually experience something of Britain's air greatness at future shows.

    Toronto Canada will have an airshow in September, and yrs trly might even attend ;). Their box is over Lake Ontario. It would be well for them to have fast boats to respond to any misadventure! Yet somehow, I was not on the planning committee.
     
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  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A stall is an 'angle of attack' event and can happen at any speed and altitude. At the "Oh Sh*t!" moment, a hard pull back would be what anyone might do. A military fighter jet would be strong enough it would not 'pull the wings off.'

    One should not rule out other microclimate events. If what we call a 'dust devil', a dry-air vortex without debris were in that area, it could also make that funny dip in the flight path. There is probably an English and definitely an Australian term for them.

    Also, it looks like a lot of trees in the impact area. Fields often have updrafts while trees often have down drafts. All airplanes are affected by them and that might have contributed. It is why altitude is life.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  12. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    Cheers Guys. I wasn't after a definite reason for what happened as I know investigations will look into everything at great length, but generally after your comments. A fellow pilot might have thought what this guy was doing was perfectly fine, or might have thought "OMG what the **** did he think he was doing!?!".

    Still not sure which of those two it is.
     
  13. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    I'm not even current in paper aeroplanes, so I'll let others engage in the what-if's and how-dids.
    The UK has a deep, wide and very proud aeronautics history, even if they can't spell airplane, and I think that you folks don't need a bunch of Yanks mucking around telling you how to do air shows.

    It would be a shame to deny HM subjects access to air shows to help tell your proud history in a way that Youtube videos just can't convey, but that's not my coin toss.
    If I had Trump bucks, it would be really cool to go and see a for-real Avro Vulcan spooling up on the tarmac, or a Supermarine Spitfire arcing through the air....but I can also understand the anguish of a family that's been robbed of a loved one who was just trying to get to or from work on time....or just out for a drive.

    Having been to the UK, there's room for both I think......BUT.......not my call.

    Prayers Sent!
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Agreed on the Vulcan. Now if we could get one next to a B-52 . . .

    Sweetest engine I've ever heard is a P51 with the Merlin engine . . . exactly the right number of cylinders and prop speed. I can only imagine what a four-engine bomber with Merlin engines sounds like.

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Concur.....
    Riding in a Lancaster would be fairly cool....or just sitting in a lawn chair and enjoying all of the noise, smell, and vibrations!
    I've been close to a BUFF when they scrambled (right up to the magic red line :) ) but something's just not the same.
    My wife and I went to watch the Blue Angels practice their show once and got absolutely as close as we wanted to get. Very cool - and no more than a dozen other folks to share the fun with.
    We also got to poke around inside USS Bremerton (SSN-698) one early Sunday morning when the duty section was bored.

    It's OUR stuff, and part of OUR history.
    Common sense sometimes isn't, but I'm thinking that there will be some guardrails erected to allow access to hardware and airshows without some of the tragedy.
     
    #15 ETC(SS), Aug 25, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2015
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