Any one else NOT sold on a plug - in?

Case closed.

Battery cost for EV,
20 cents/mile for NiMH
40 cents/mile for Li-ion

 

The economics of the RAV4 EV are nowhere near as bad as is implied in the prior posts. I'm going to contrast the RAV4 EV to the RAV4, apples to apples. Not sure how a hypothetical RAV4 hybrid would do.

Look them up on the EPA's fueleconomy.gov website. For the 2003 RAV4 2WD with automatic and the RAV4 EV, the fuel cost for 15,000 miles is shown as $2682 and $362. That's for 15,000 miles. Figure a vehicle life of 150,000 miles (which I believe is near typical in the US, please don't tell me that everybody expects to get umpty million miles on a vehicle). Do the arithmetic, and at current fuel prices, the RAV4 EV would save a little over $23,000 in fuel costs.

So, it sold for $22K more, it would save $23K, lifetime, at current energy prices, ignoring any savings on maintenance costs -- the lifetime cost of ownership of the EV version would have been a bit below the gas version.

Tough to say how realistic that is. That's for a low-volume model with nickel batteries, that was subsidized by the manufacturer. That cuts both ways. But if we ever get those mythical cheap durable Li-ion batteries, I can see this shifting pretty decisively toward electric.

Where an equivalent-sized hybrid or plugin hybrid would fall on that cost curve, I would like to see. Almost have to be true that a hybrid would have lower costs, at current prices, I think. But for electric vs gas, if you just look at the purchase prices and current energy costs, assume both vehicles will last 150K miles, it's a pretty close race.

 

Thank you for making the same conclusion, the EV and gas model has about the same cost of owner ship or cost per mile. The TCH is a good model for the RAV4 hybrid because the RAV4 uses the same chassis and I4 engine as the Camry before the V6 comes out. It also has similar weight. But the EV costs double compare to the hybrid. It will be even if gas price goes to $8 or battery price reduced to half.

The gas will comes out ahead if you put the 22K into the bank and draw interest for the 10 yr pay back time or reduces the monthly load payment by half.

It is not until 2015 or later when the cost of the Li-ion battery drop to 1/8 of today's cost. Then we will have an affordable Tesla for $40K.

 

Well, that was a little too fast for me and/or unintelligible.

Let me try to parse what you said.

You're saying that an EV version of (fill-in-the-blank) would typically cost double the gas version, at today's battery prices. Maybe so, maybe not. Not true for the RAV4, but Toyota reportedly subsidized that.

And so, because it costs so much more, I need to include the real rate of return on the money that I would have to invest in the EV version? And if I did, then ... I'm not sure what you're saying.

First, at today's rates and inflation, I think the time value of money is negative. So I don't see that changing the equation.

(Putting the difference between the EV version and the gas version it into risk-free investment (the traditional approach) would mean T-bill rates, which are currently below the trailing 12-month rate of inflation. CPI is at >5%, trailing 12 month, T-bill (one year) is at 2.x%. My conclusion at the current time is that higher up-front cost is not a negative.)

So I don't think the time value of money changes this, at least not for a person with cash to spend either on T-bills or on a car. Maybe if you have to finance the car, that might change the calculation a bit, but only to the extent that the interest on the loan exceeds the current CPI increase (5%).

Beyond that, the RAV4 EV price was not quite 2x the RAV4 gas price. Typically quoted as $43K EV, $25K gas. The (undiscounted) savings in fuel cost (at current rates) was pretty close to the difference in purchase price.

My bottom line is that I don't see how this requires a doubling of gas prices or a halving of battery costs to make the lifetime costs roughly even. I think they are roughly even now. Based on what the EPA says it'll cost for fuel, per year. If I had to work in the time value of money, based on current risk-free rates versus CPI, that would only shift the balance further toward putting in the money up front, that is, the EV option.

 

Rubbish.

BYD are already producing LiFePO4 cells for their F6 PHEV at $300 per kWh, including all the power electronics and motors.

Assuming a 7 kWh pack ($2,100), over 150,000 miles, of which 100,000 miles were done on battery power, it would cost 2.1 cents per mile for the battery costs alone.

But even after 150,000 miles the battery has a residual value in the grid balancing or recycling market, which reduces the cost even further.

Then from that you must also subtract the cost saved from downsizing the engine by using the hybrid system (another $300), and any money you were able to earn from selling cheap overnight electricity at peak daytime rates.

Chances are, "shelling out" an extra $2-3k for a PHEV battery could make you money over the longer term rather than just save you money.

 

Clett, from what I read, BYD is/are only claiming expected life of about 2000 cycles. For a 7 KWH pack, that might be more like 70,000 electric miles. But your point is still well taken. That's a cheap battery, in the good sense of cheap.

Their EV and hybrid both look pretty good to me.

I read somewhere that the estimated premium for the hybrid is about $6K US (3K British Pounds), compared to the straight-gas version of the same car. That gets you a hybrid with 60 mile all-electric range. Even counting the full hybrid premium as if that were due to the plug-in option alone, a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation says that would pay for itself, compared to a Prius-like hybrid without plug-in option (at $4/gallon, $0.10/KWH, 46 MPG for non-plugin hybrid). You'd net $8K in fuel cost savings over the 120,000 electric miles. So if you could tap the full 120,000 electric miles for that one, it's clear that that battery far more than pays for itself.

It's only a matter of time, I think, before the balance shifts more decisively toward electric. Wish Ford and GM would hurry up and get into the ballgame.

 

Sorry for the confusion, I was trying to compare 3 cars, RAV4-EV, RAV4-gas and the TCH (Toyota Camry Hybrid) at the same time and to show the financial benefit of the cheaper RAV4 gas car with the same cost per mile fuel cost as the EV.

I was trying to point out the cost of running the EV needs to include the "replacement cost" of the battery and I was not doing a good job. The battery is only an energy storage device which wears out over time or mileage, so replacement is necessary just as the ICE. The actual cost of the battery pack is not precise because the large volume pricing is not disclosed beyond the automotive industry.

I am using the price of the laptop Li-ion battery pack in per Wh cost as these cells are already produced in very high volume. I have done extensive research for laptop battery packs in the early 2000.

The lowest price laptop battery I could find today is the HP Pavilion 95Wh @ $198 or $2.08/Wh. The highest cost one is 47Wh battery @ $258 or $5.49/Wh.

HP Parts Store - HP Computer Parts - HP Printer Parts - Compaq Parts

If you argue this is not the right cells for autos, then look at A123's pricing on the ANR26650M1 cells which is used in Dewaults power tools and by many plugin hybrid conversion companies. The developer's kit is listed @ $110 for 6 cells. Each cell has 3.3V x 2.3Ah = 7.59Wh or 45.54Wh for 6 cells total. The cost per Wh is 110/45.54 = $2.42/Wh for un-mounted cells. Of cause this is low volume pricing.

I believe I am very fair to use $2 per Wh for today's "replacement pack" price.

Developer Kit, ANR26650M1 High Power Lithium Ion Cells

Below is the link to the PHEV conversion company. They suspended the Prius conversion recently for unknown reason. But I have a saved file for the original price list.

The cost for a 4.5kWh Li-ion pack is $21600, 9kWh for $28800 and 12kWh for $32400.
Do your own math and subtract out the labor, BMS and packaging if you can.

Hybrids Plus - products

I hope this is not a shock to EV enthusiastics, the RAV4-EV does not have zero green house gases emission. It emits 3.9 tons of green house gases per year according to the EPA data. I assume this is from the power generating plants.

Gas Mileage of 2002 Toyota RAV4

The gen II Prius emits 4.0 ton of GH gases. The RAV4-EV's 3.9 ton does not do much better.

Gas Mileage of 2004 Toyota Prius

The renewable electric power source argument is not valid because it provides less than 10% of the total power output in the US.

Electricity generation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The pricing from BYD at $300/Wh including electronics is a marketing hype for future release of the EV. BYD does not have an EV in production for sale in the US. This follows the same cost projection goal from DoE's Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle R&D Plan, which estimate the Li-ion battery will cost $250/kWh in 2015. We will not see Chevrolet's Volt in the near future if it is to be priced competitively with hybrids as boasted by GM's CEO.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/program/phev_rd_plan_02-28-07.pdf

There is a better article describing the future costs, but I lost he link.

See figure in page 27 for long term goal development of Li-ion battery of $250/kWh in 2015. Note this is OEM manufacturing cost, not retail "replacement price".

In order to make the comparison easier to understand and with apples to apples. Lets throw away the actual battery pack replacement cost because the actual price from the auto manufacturer can not be determined, just let it hidden in the purchase price of the vehicle. I am comparing only on the purchase price and the fuel cost for the life of the vehicles at 150000 miles or 10yrs.

The initial savings in the gas only purchase price will not be accounted for future investment gains.

1. This is base on today's dollar value and constant gas & electricity prices.

2. The base MSRP is used for all vehicles as the RAV4-EV MSRP does not have any options included.

Darell's Electric Vehicle Page (click on the RAV4EV on the side bar and scroll down to see MSRP picture)

Use this site to find MSRP:
2002 Toyota RAV4 Base - Overview for used Toyota RAV4 - CarGurus

3. The EPA annual fuel cost is used for all vehicles even the average hybrids can beat the EPA 08 numbers easily. The numbers are converted to 08 rating, so they are equally rated even they are pre-07 cars. The same Fuel Economy web site is used.

4. The cost of purchase is amortized to cost/mile and added to fuel cost to get the total cost per mile. All maintenance, repair costs and tax & lic are excluded.

5. The total cost of ownership for the life of the vehicles and cost of fuel are also calculated.

6. Total of 6 vehicles are compared, 1 EV (RAV4-EV), 3 hybrids (Prius I, Prius II & TCH) and 2 gasoline (RAV4-2WD, Camry LE).

See attachment for the comparison results. I can't get this editor to accept taps to form a table.

You can draw your own conclusion and do your own research, YMMV.

Have fun!

 

Buying a battery for a laptop is not the same as buying a large format battery.

A single 18650 lithium-ion cell contains about 8 Wh and costs about $1.70 to manufacture. (2001 costs, today of course cheaper than this).

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/149.pdf

This puts the manufacturing cost of LiIon at around $212 per kWh. The inflated costs you see widely publicised today relate to low-volume early stage large format batteries from specialists. There is no inherent reason why LiIon should cost more than $300 per kWh in volume production.

Indeed Thundersky in China are already selling Lithium-ion for less than this.

 

Why would you factor in the cost of replacing the battery? You should also factor in the cost of replacing the transmission of your regular gas car. Same thing IMO.

 

Thanks for finding the article.

If you look at figure 6.8, it clearly stated the cost is $706/kWh at todays OEM manufacturing price. This is the lowest price the auto manufacturer can buy from the battery manufacturer.

The $212/kWh cost is only the material cost for the cathode material. The total material cost is $436/kWh.

The goal is to reduce to $250/kWh in 2015.

I am talking the replacement price when you buy the pack to replace the failed pack in your EV today over the counter from a dealership, it will cost you more than $2000/kWh easily.

Can you provide a link to Thundersky?

 

Semi-true for a gas car auto transmission but not true for hybrid.

American made car has lots of problems with transmission. The horror stories about the Chysler mini-van in the 90's. Japanese car's usually last for the life of the car.

My 87 Camry has 325K miles with the original transmission and going strong.

The Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive system is just only a planetary gear set and will last forever.

Honda's hybrid CVT is belt and pulley system and will need belt replacement sooner than ordinary auto transmission.

 

Please see table 5.3 on page 34, which summarises all of the costs that go into making a single 18650 cell (the workhorse of the LiIon industry, about the same size as a AA cell).

$1.70 is the answer, which at 8 Wh per 18650 cell is $212 per kWh. Close to the ~$2 a single 18650 costs on the wholesale market today (a lot less than what you can buy them for in small packs).

As for thundersky, try here.

 

Let me pitch one for the home team. Being over 50 I've owned lots of cars and pickup truck, domestic and Japanese, the only ONE that ever dropped the tranny was a bought-new '92 Acura Legend LS.

I agree though, when the domestics made a bad tranny they did it right :lever:

 

I am older than you. My first four cars I owned are domestics including a Caravan mini-van. After that all are Japanese, 1 Mazda and 6 Toyotas.
I was a weekend mechanic to keep the domestics running, I meant every weekend.

Sorry to hear about your Legend. Honda did have some problems with the auto transmissions in the 90', mostly harsh shifting and gear noise.

Honda fixed the problem with a special blend of transmission fluid. You must use the Honda fluid and it costs twice as much.

 

I couldn't find the price list at the thundersky site. I guess you have send a RFQ to them.

Do you have any link to show the actual sale price or invoice?

 

I'm concerned about battery reliability, so unless Toyota offers a warranty at least as good as the Prius warranty I'll probably wait until PHEVs have been in use for at least three years before buying one.

 

I'm hopeful that the promising battery tech coming out of places like MIT in past years and more recently, will allow for a battery that lasts the life of the EV/PHEV car. Mass production should eventually make them more and more affordable. Early adopters will have to pay more in the meantime.

And I'm still also hoping toyota's look at zinc air batteries bears fruit as well as the ultracapacitor from Eestor. I fully expect that in five years there will be batteries in EVs and PHEVs that will potentially last the life of the vehicle.

 

I can't agree more. I hope it will happen in 5-10 years.

The ultracapacitor is also a myth, it will never have the power density and lower cost than battery cell technology. It is a good expensive device to capture braking regen energy because the inverter lost can be reduced but not as a main power source.

The claim that some one can built EV system at $300/kWh today. This is just a lot of FUD like in the late 90s in the electronic industry and never delivered. There was a lot of excitement when the semi-conductor industry claimed that solid state memory will have higher density than HDD in the late 90s. I still waiting to see that so that I don't need a HDD in my laptop.
The HHD had failed twice in the last 6 months.

There is a lot skepticism about the quality of Chinese made electrical component.
For example, a few years back there are quality problem of Chinese made electrolytic capacitors, they failed on many electronic products around the world. The failure is caused by using sub-standard cheap electrolyt. There is also cases of 1GB FLASH memory chips made in China with a 256MB die inside. In some cases, it doesn't even have a die inside.

The BYD Li-Ion battery has yet to be tested by an independent test lab to verify the claimed capacity and cycle life.


FUD = Fear, Uncertainty & Deception

 

OK, I'm getting the drift now. Using laptop batteries for the price basis here is sort of like using inkjet cartridges to figure out how much ink costs per ounce. That market hardly reflects a low-cost competitive equilibrium. Mostly, it reflects near-monopoly pricing by each supplier of each unique battery. If you don't feel totally screwed when you purchase your new laptop battery or inkjet cartridge, then you're not paying attention.

I tried pricing just the cells. I googled "lithium battery wholesale 18650" and there are all kinds of places where you can buy those cells retail for under $1/WH. This place has some for $0.90/WH.

MEGABATTERIES.COM - Lithium ion Batteries at wholesale prices & battery packs

This place has them for $0.60/WH in lots of 500 or more.

Li-Ion 18650 3.7V 2200mAh battery with Tab - Li18650-2200T

That's just what came up on the first page of the Google search.

My point is that, if I did the arithmetic right, Clett's estimate of $0.20 to $0.30 per WH, for large-format batteries bought in bulk, doesn't seem all that far-fetched to me. At the upper end of the estimate, that's maybe half the cost AA-size ones bought retail. Yeah, I know you have to put them in a package and add the electronics and pay the overhead, but if I had to choose between $2 and $0.2 as the more reasonable estimate, I'd choose something closer to $0.2 than to $2. Not saying you can get a vehicle battery pack for that, but am buying Clett's argument that there's no current barrier to large-scale manufacture producing some fairly reasonably-priced battery packs for cars.

 

You point is well taken. You also screw when you buy a hybrid or EV, you have to replace it with the same battery pack from the manufacturer because no after market battery pack supplier is available.

This is true with the Inkjet cartridge until the refill kits available.

Lets not to beat the dead horse about the actual OEM manufacture price of the bare cells. What is important is the replacement cost of the whole pack.

The battery replacement cost or the Prius is $1863 for a 1.25kWh NiMH pack. You can guesstimate a Li-Ion pack would cost from Toyota.