Atlantic Hurricane season 2019

Most likely. You cannot establish it as fact over just a few years, and I don't have much confidence in the climate models. However, it does make intuitive sense. You warm water, it produces water vapor. More water vapor in the atmosphere produces increased rainfall, esp during the summer. The droughts come and go, with or without climate change, and it is much more difficult to establish a causal relationship. The metrics are subject to interpretation and there are far fewer data-points (events). Rainfall as a metric is fairly easy to quantify and there are far more data points.

 

Well they do have rolls of paper towels.

Bob Wilson

 

and are in need of drinking water

 

Farmer’s Almanac 2019-2020: Return of the Polar Coaster

 

Today: the Farmers' Almanac forecast. Since 1818.

Not to be confused with next week's release of the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast. Since 1792.

Shall we compare them?

 

a lot of acorns this year

 

i'm just glad my father isn't in florida anymore. i hope orlando will be okay

 

On a practical point, the track suggests North Alabama may suffer a 'rain event'. I have to consider which would be a better 'bug out' car:

• BMW i3-REx - 40 MPG, 2 gal. gas and 72 mi EV, 50 kW.
• Tesla Std. Rng. Plus Model 3 - 240 mi EV, 100 kW.

Although the BMW can fill up at gas stations, gas stations will have queues and problems getting gasoline. Still, filling stations are common and do not need custom maps. The CCS-1/J1772 are not really conducive to cross country travel as the CCS-1 is limited to 50 kW and many charging stations are as low as 40 kW. Inoperative and empty gas stations were a problem in the 2011, four day, power outage so I had to haul gas cans out of the area to keep our cars operating.

The Tesla requires a map, already built-in, for the SuperCharger network. But the alternative, J1772, is speed limited to ~6.6 kW (32 A) and I decided not to buy the $450, 50 kW limited, CHAdeMO adapter. Once in an area with a working SuperCharger, I can stop-to-stop, move away from the damaged area. We also have a natural gas fired, 16 kW, emergency generator which can keep the Tesla working. Even during the 2011, four day, power outage, we always had natural gas which is well equipped to handle power outages.

Bob Wilson

 

We are under a high pressure center that typically moves east. There is a risk the backside of the high pressure system could 'suck' the revenants up the Mississippi Valley including Mississippi and Alabama:

If just rain, no problem especially if there is no jet stream overhead. Still, flash flooding has become common.

Bob Wilson

 

I like the idea of our 700 mile range hycam,
But around here, if you’re gonna get, you better get early

 

disney world declares state of emergency

 

We're stocking up a little and preparing to batten down the hatches in case it comes this far west. There are some outlier spaghetti models indicating it could make it to the Gulf south of us and then come up the west coast. That might get more interesting on this side of the state.