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Atlantic Hurricane season 2019

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Apr 23, 2019.

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  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Now contemplating eyewall staying offshore and rolling up East Coast. This would be rain for all with structural damages only from water not wind.
     
    #41 tochatihu, Aug 31, 2019
  2. jerrymildred

    jerrymildred Senior Member

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    Yeah, that 5 AM report looks not nearly as bad (especially for us over on the west coast). But there's a good reason it's called the "cone of uncertainty." And either way, look out for flooding. Around here, at least, the ground is already waterlogged from weeks of heavy rains and over-building and paving.

    Edit to add: Remember that that cone shows the possible paths of the center of the storm. You don't have to be in the cone to be affected. From the NHC:
    Screen Shot 2019-08-31 at 7.33.42 AM.png
     
    #42 jerrymildred, Aug 31, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2019
  3. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    #43 noonm, Aug 31, 2019
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    With this much oomph, recurving to keep the eyewall well offshore is about the best that can be hoped for. S Carolina up to Charleston might actually get the worst.

    Meanwhile a slow turn will really grind parts of Bahamas this time. The mere persistence of 'those nubs' through most recent thousands of years (meaning hundreds of hurricanes) is quite amazing.
     
    #44 tochatihu, Aug 31, 2019
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    maybe it will take out a few casino's

    it's probably time to thin out some of the miami real estate
     
    #45 bisco, Aug 31, 2019
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For about one 12-hr forecast cycle, Dorian really looked like a Miami vise.
     
    #46 tochatihu, Aug 31, 2019
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    #47 Trollbait, Sep 1, 2019
    Raytheeagle likes this.
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    We shall watch Dorian's spaghetti models during its long Bahama visit.

    On current consensus track, it will be more about water than wind in Florida. More about surf and surge than rain.
     
    #48 tochatihu, Sep 1, 2019
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #49 tochatihu, Sep 2, 2019
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    that's the great thing about weather forecasting, it works in vegas too(y)
     
    #50 bisco, Sep 2, 2019
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Vegas odds for a hurricane to come straight west to Bahamas, park, then track east coast 'just far enough' offshore would be close to zero. At least in a mild search of records since 1851, I did not find one.
     
    #51 tochatihu, Sep 2, 2019
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    sounds like an even bet. or maybe you could get a hundred to one?
     
    #52 bisco, Sep 2, 2019
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I collect NHC 'wind snakes' for all interesting storms, at least in part because they do not seem to archive them.

    If you looked at this:

    Dorian 2019 wind snake4.png

    and had no additional information, what would you guess happens next?
     
    #53 tochatihu, Sep 2, 2019
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    florida snaps off at the panhandle? another reason to be glad i don't live there
     
    #54 bisco, Sep 2, 2019
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    :rolleyes:

    Ummm OK. Plate tectonics, really really fast.
     
    #55 tochatihu, Sep 2, 2019
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    H. Matthew in 2016 gave coastline a sample of big-boy winds

    Matthew 2016 wind snake.png

    As one may recall, Matthew was unkind to Haiti, S. peninsula in particular.
     
    #56 tochatihu, Sep 2, 2019
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Eyewall is parked over Grand Bahama Island, as it has been for do not know how may hours. This is getting ridiculous. Wind speeds at wall are now down to 125 knots (mph?) but even so, things break.

    High water is more of an 'everywhere' thing.

    Resumed reporting out of Freeport, etc, is going to be pretty horribe.
     
    #57 tochatihu, Sep 3, 2019
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    'katrina' dolphins living in the Bahamas are safe. phew
     
    #58 bisco, Sep 3, 2019
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    looks like most of florida will be spared. so much for my panhandle theory
     
    #59 bisco, Sep 3, 2019
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There are places where the word "theory" carries a deeper meaning :whistle:
     
    #60 tochatihu, Sep 3, 2019
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