Atlantic hurricane season

H. Maria's eye has just passed over Dominica. Some of Virgin Island and Puerto Rico are on centerline of model consensus. I've read that it could be worst in Puerto Rico since 1928 but I doubt it will outdo 1998 Georges.

 

Maria's effects on Puerto Rico (etc.) will be worse because of earlier close pass of Irma. This multiple pass aspect of 2017 season is very uncommon.

 

PR is a small target. Dominica is even smaller and just now* had its first substantial blow.

These days the north or northeast side of cyclones is called 'dirty'. NE Puerto Rico will get that, unless some veering off occurs. That area was on the clean side of Irma.

* we don't know history from many small Carib islands either because not many old records survive.

 

World's biggest cyclone target is probably Philippines because it covers those lines of latitude so well.

 

Possibly obsolete statistics from Puerto Rico are hurricane somewhere on island every 10 years. and same-site repeats every 60 years.

If prehistory was similar, then repeated hits are an ecological filter on what can persist there. After the other filter of what species can arrive. Island ecologists spin yarns about such things all the time

 

Images of palm fronds thrashing about are with middling winds. Real winds decapitate those trees, and many stout buildings as well.

Maria remains compact (eye and wind field) but she is strong. 909 millibars tells me there will be extreme damage in a narrow strip through Puerto Rico. There is a large dam & reservoir 'upstream' of San Juan that I'd rather not think about. That city itself is in a very bad location.

Buena suerte y Dios le bendiga.

 

Very little news from Puerto Rico during daylight cycle just ended. Electrical supply is zeroed out, water supply largely disrupted. Non-local news mostly seems to be reporting each others' reporting.

Doppler radar went down very early, along with all weather stations I could find. We may not know the extent to which 120+ mph winds were received.

WAPA TV remains on air and online, in the local Spanish dialect and velocity. From them I learned that a famous local mentalist incorrectly predicted Maria's eye would miss. That island-wide curfew is 6PM to 6 AM until further notice. That all reporters 'in the field' saw high water and heavy damage.

Not much point in guessing yet, but there must be extensive damage to many structures, vehicles, and boats. Loiza reservoir ( I mentioned above) survived, along with its data streams, so may post later on what seems to have happened there.

Imagine PR as a rectangle. Draw line connecting middle of west edge to middle of south edge. Everywhere above that line, things are in poor shape now.

 

High-voltage lines are down, and first needing repair. Then, distribution hubs and their local outfeeds. Finally the outback. Places located well (um, near government) might repower within ~2 weeks. Outward edges could very well wait 3 months or more. It was thus after 1998 Georges.

After Georges the only Puerto Rico deaths were by bungling cleanup or carbon monoxide from 'personal' generators. I see no need to play those songs again.

 

Oil-fired is 73%, within 95% fossil; remaining 5% is equally split between solar and wind. No hydro (!) PREPA says 4 to 6 months to repair. May mean generators are damaged in addition to transmission/distribution. Or, that they just have no money.

This island also went dark after 1998 Hurricane Georges. Urban areas then were relit within 2 weeks, but rural distribution took about 4 months to complete.

 

PR/Maria is now in that awful time where carbon monoxide from home generators always add to deaths.

 

Gawd I keep saying that...