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Atlantic hurricane season

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jun 5, 2016.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Perhaps the scientist Whitehead was simply right, and it's science. That all this talk of global warming causing worse Atlantic hurricane disasters based off an unscientific self serving insurance pamphlet, was not a good basis for trenberth to include in his chapter. Perhaps the IPCC chairman should have sided with the science and not his lead author.

    No you are right, there must be a huricane-god trying to fool man ;-)
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    here comes nicole!
     
  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I'm on the opposite corner of the country, where we are expecting the remnants of Typhoon Songda to strike on Saturday. It is expected to have a central pressure equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane. Though as an 'extratropical' (or 'midlatitude') storm, winds will be slower. The core is likely to hit a ways up in British Columbia.

    Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Warning: Major Storms Threaten the Pacific Northwest
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Until floodwaters drain from N. Carolina (which seems to be the worst), Matthew vs. US damage cannot be estimated. Far from worst ever, yet flooding has happened far from areas deemed flood risk (with insurability consequences)

    In Haiti, a different problem - not enough 'gloves on the ground' to respond, much less count broken things. UN is sending 10 million cholera vaccine doses. I did not even know they had 10 million cholera vaccine doses.

    +++
    For me, Maue's trend analyses are the best that can be done with ~6 decades of global data. No trends. But you don't need a trend to get walloped; it happens event-wise. Hurricanes seem to be things we need to prepare for better, and to prepare to recover from better. If instead we talk about 'CO2 is' or CO2 isn't', we are pretty much missing the point.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i haven't heard much about hurricane preparedness. it takes money (which haiti doesn't have) and a good plan i suppose. when i look at the flooding in lumberton and surroundings, i wonder what options there are, short of stilts.

    they did a great job of evacuating every willing soul, unfortunately, some refuse to go. i suppose a lot has happened since katrina, but we likely won't know if it works for another 50 years or so.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Probably, you have. After 1992 Hurricane Andrew in FL, better attachments of roof to house became newsworthy. I'd not attempt to compile a long list here; it's not the point. But such lists could be made, and then ranked cost/benefit, and presented as rational choices.

    What we are doing anyway is increasing populations and structures on coastlines. Some of those in risk areas. It seems not enough to hope there won't be storms, or that they will go somewhere else instead.

    Global hurricane losses must be less than $100 billions/yr I'd think. Whatever, my concern for their increase is in terms of populations and structures. Not climatology.

    If we are already making the most rational preparations, well that would be just fine by me. Move along to the next subject. There are plenty.
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i used to have a summer home on cape cod. it's time for the government to start differentiating between those who can, and those who cannot. build all you want on the coast, but don't come looking for help after the next blow.
    they have raised flood insurance rates tremendously, but again, there is a very poor population in n.c. that can't afford it, and have no options.
     
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  8. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Naturally I am pleased to see mojo offer a link including 2 IPCC references. As we discussed here earlier, there have not been any global trends in hurricane energy over ~60 years. It will be difficult to make confident predictions about future until ocean dynamics are much better understood.

    Predictions of more people and infrastructure on coasts are much more certain. It would be hard to suppose that more problems won't follow. Hope is good, though. Rational preparations are even better. Cleaning up after is unavoidable. N. Carolina will pull through and Haiti will have rough times.

    Two more approaching China, in the not-Atlantic world.
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Might read this one eh?

    Lisa M. Baldini et al. (2016). Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries. Scientific Reports 6, 37522 DOI: 10.1038/srep37522

    Main message is tracks more north, more recurving. Just like the title says. But I know you'll also enjoy Figure 1A. Proxies show tropical cyclones much fewer since 1650 AD. What a bad time to be wandering the ocean in wooden ships eh?

    Baldini et al 2016 N Atl TC since 1550.png
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Hurricane (then tropical storm) Otto has finished with Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Slightly unusual because of late season. Quite unusual for being close to equator. Contrast Baldini above.

    Interesting ecological research in those areas has not had such a big blow before. Those folks have something new to study, and good information on prior conditions. So this might be a very revealing thing. Surely it means (more or less) whacked forests which are (let me tell you) a pain to walk through. It's machete and chainsaw time.
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Explains low rainfall in Alabama and the Southeast.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Hurricanes obviously have nothing to do with Global Warming.Its another huge failed prediction from the alarmists in a long line of failed predictions.Hurricanes down ,tornadoes down,drought down,polar bears up.
    The failed settled science is truly laughable.
    Im convinced that Hurricanes develop under influence of the Suns magnetic field .There is evidence that tropical storms are initiated by Sun Spots,which are not existent currently.There is a large coronal hole though which recently greatly affected the Earths magnetic field and probably caused Otto.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Looks like I can get a day of fishing in this year.
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "Im convinced that Hurricanes develop under influence of the Suns magnetic field"

    Are you interested in comparing Sun's magnetic variation through time to hurricane formation rates? In any ocean basin? That would typically be the next step. Even though "I'm convinced" is not the typical first step.

    More along the lines of "I wonder if?"
     
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  17. RCO

    RCO Senior Member

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    I trust you are absolutely convinced of that.
     
  18. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Ive been observing the correlation for the past few years.Nows a good period for observation as magnetic activity is low and when magnetic activity spikes and an event occurs its obvious.
     
  19. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Earthquake was predicted for today a few days ago due to Earth facing coronal hole .6.2 today in Indonesia triggered (most likely)by shock to earths magnetic field.Northern lights display today and tomorrow.
     
    #99 mojo, Dec 7, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
  20. RCO

    RCO Senior Member

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    Ow! My brain hurts me.