Autonomous driving developers say "maybe 2030"

yeah, i never bought into it, and i doubt many did. like ev's and renewables, the biggest roadblock will be us, not technology

 

Some things are just hard to do.

I remember when they (finally) launched the Falcon Heavy....at least 5 years later than originally soft-scheduled.
Muck admitted that Musk went on to say that "the integration and structural challenges of combining three Falcon 9 cores were much more difficult than expected..." which is to say that it required a lot more effort than just bolting three falcons together and getting the 27 rocket engines to play nice together.

 

i suppose once they eliminate the competition (taxi's) they will keep raising prices, idk.

or, it could be that the coming generations (my thirty somethings all use uber/lift) don't care about costs going up, and would never consider a taxi, even if it were cheaper.

as for ai, it's coming, i have no doubt. no one knows the timetable though. i think it is already more sophisticated than we realize due to secret testing.

 

Tractor trailers are going to be where they slay the first L5 dragons.
It's one of the many things that are counter-intuitive about the technology, and it's where the biggest bucks can be made the fastest.

They don't call them 'limited access highways' for nothing.
Millennials getting their avocado toast delivered can be served by drone.

 

It seems very intuitive to me that the big trucks will get it first.

Passenger cars spend the great majority of their lifecycle just parked. Commercial trucks want to be more like commercial airplanes, always moving and earning revenue to pay off their mortgages. So these trucks will be willing and able to pay for these systems (and expensive LIDARs that I think are still necessary) long before they are cheap enough for most regular consumers to justify.

 

But I was promised a Johnny Cab back in the 80's!


On a serious note, we don't need to wait till a 100% self-driving car comes out before the technology becomes insanely useful. This article talks about the speed improvements from adding a few fully self-driving cars into the mix (0-10% of cars on the road), but I imagine a similar effect could be achieved with a higher percentage of 50% or 75% self-driving cars:

Watch just a few self-driving cars stop traffic jams | Science | AAAS

Here's a good video covering the topic too:

 

Yeah?
Well....I was similarly "promised" a flying car back in the 60's....


What can I say?
REAL life can be a little different....but REMEMBER.....we want humans to be autonomous, not just cars.

 

LOL be careful of what you wish for, as for autonomous, I can see another use for a drone...

What to do when it's time to let the dog out to use the bathroom

In the year 2010:




In the year 2030: