Featured Beginning of the end for the Prius?

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by nfschlaack, Dec 22, 2018.

  1. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2009
    2,012
    1,279
    0
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I am not sure why it matters that you have a use case that maybe 0.1% of the population shares.
    So a BEV won't work for you with the current batteries and current charging infrastructure.
    Reducing oil usage isn't about eliminating every single use of oil...it is a numbers game.
    Start with the easy low hanging fruit and improve from there.

    There are only a few dozen regular posters here. If every edge case driver posted an anecdote here like this then no one would drive an EV.

    Mike
     
  2. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2009
    2,012
    1,279
    0
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I guess I'm ready for a little bit of gymnastics.

    In my Tesla M3 I get just over 200 wh/mile...but my mind is just warming up so let's make it 250 wh/mile to make the math easy and be more typical. That is 4 miles per kwh. My local rates are high at 20 cents/kwh so that is 5 cents per mile. National average is ~12 cents/kwh so that is 3 cents/mile.
    Tesla Supercharger rates in CA are 26 cents/kwh so that would be 6.5 cents/mile
    However I have solar and my non-rebated cost is about 10 cents/kwh. With rebates 7 cents. So that would be 2.5 cents per mile...or as low as 1.75 cents per mile. And, just getting ready for my high bar dismount, it would be 1.4 cents/mile in my personal best case...city driving on short commutes, where I get 200 wh/mile.

    For the next gymnastics event, the floor exercise...for cars that floor the "gas" pedal.
    The typical car comparable to the M3 might get 30 mpg. But let's assume 40 mpg to start. For gas prices let's assume a rock bottom $2/gallon. That would be 5 cents per mile. And that is the BEST case (highway mpg of a high mpg gas car). With a more typical 30 mpg in the city it is at 6.6 cents/mile. And with a more realistic $2.25/gal it is 7.5 cents per mile. In CA gas is $3.60/gal...thus 12 cents/mile.
    Of course the Prius would get 50 mpg or 4 cents/mile as about the best possible (but not comparable to the M3)

    And here is the ringer (or is it the ring exercise?)
    There is some overlap where the best case gas prices per mile can beat an EV...but not on average gas prices compared to average utility prices. BEV wins when comparing prices in a given location most likely, especially when comparing like cars. Is this likely to hold for the life of a new car today?

    And if I haven't pommeled this horse to death...
    You can probably tow a horse in a Ford F150 in the city and maybe get 20 mpg, but in CA you will be paying 18 cents per mile.

    Mike
     
    markabele, mrlebop and Raytheeagle like this.
  3. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sidewalk Supervisor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2010
    33,230
    22,220
    80
    Location:
    Greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    Touring
    The word "prius" has so far appeared once on this page, apart from avatars and signatures. :cry:
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    78,856
    33,434
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    it really is the beginning of the end. or just the end :unsure:
     
    mrlebop and Mendel Leisk like this.
  5. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sidewalk Supervisor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2010
    33,230
    22,220
    80
    Location:
    Greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    Touring
    Twice now...

    Prius, prius, prius, prius, prius...

    (Got into the Chianti...)
     
    bisco and Raytheeagle like this.
  6. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2016
    7,955
    10,657
    0
    Location:
    Bay Area, CA
    Vehicle:
    2019 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    [QUOTE="Mendel Leisk, post: 2827611, member: 69191]
    (Got into the Chianti...)[/QUOTE]

    Too light for me;).

    Its a Cab kinda night (y).
     
    Mendel Leisk and bisco like this.
  7. litesong

    litesong Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2011
    307
    78
    0
    Location:
    Everett, WA
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Nearest "cheap" Prius to me within 50 miles is $26,000+. & I'd have to be a good negotiator (which I'm not) to get it down to that. Talk is cheap, but paying for a car at a "stealership"...... isn't. Once, I went to a Toyota stealer, & they wouldn't budge downward from their "stealer markup" price. Once, I went to a Honda stealer, & the arrogant BS'er salesman said, "Ya, that's our price". Went to a Mazda stealer & they didn't even want to talk to me. Even went to a Chevy stealer, they wouldn't drop their price & they told me to go to Hyundai. Best advice I ever got from a stealership. Went to Hyundai & now we have 3 Hyundais with a total 257000 miles. Looks like each car may sail past 200,000 miles each.... & keep going.
     
    mrlebop, royrose and bisco like this.
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    22,430
    12,302
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    "Used Car Buying Guide, BEST & WORST" CR Consumer Reports, March 2019, pp 228-229:
    • Prius "Good Bet"
    • Prius C
    • Prius V "Good Bet"
    Bob Wilson
     
    mrlebop likes this.
  9. CraftyCoder

    CraftyCoder Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2018
    48
    64
    0
    Location:
    Washougal, WA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Premium
    On long trips I have no desire to wait at a charging station. Additionally, I am stuck with a single source of maintenance which is located about 50 miles away from me. Finally, my daily commute fits within the EV range of the Prius. These combined with the price of the Prius Prime make it far more attractive to me than a Tesla. Don't get me wrong. I have driven a couple of different Tesla models and they are super fun to drive. They just are not optimal for my needs.
     
  10. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    1,001
    970
    0
    Location:
    Southern MN
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    II
    Sorry to rain on your parade...but the starting MSRP for a 2019 Prius IS $23,770. Granted, you may not be able to find many low end models in stock...but you can spec one out and wait for it if you want to.

    Personally, I've never purchased a vehicle directly from a dealership. Instead, I've used Costco, Truecar, and other services. It has always worked out very well. And it has always been substantially less than MSRP.

    And BTW - we also have a Hyundai in the stable...along with our two Prius. The Sonata is a *great* highway cruising vehicle.
     
  11. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    1,001
    970
    0
    Location:
    Southern MN
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    II
    I think you have just proven that with low to medium fuel prices...a 4th gen Prius can beat a Tesla in terms of cost per mile in typical use cases...no? I'm fairly sure this is true but I'm too lazy to look it up....because it doesn't matter. I'm sorry if I offended anyone! Geez some folks around here can get testy pretty fast ( including me..haha ). (y)

    The whole point is that the equation will be different for everyone. Energy prices and gas prices are vastly different depending on where you are. However, the point needs to be made that a BEV isn't necessarily more cost efficient that non-BEV. I think too many people forget that.

    For now I guess I'll just keep driving my nasty little Prius and see what shakes out in a few years. :whistle: As you can see..I'm just not sold on the BEV thing yet. Heck, it took me a long time to even consider hybrids. But now I love them...I'll come around eventually. (y) Just give me time. :whistle:

    Edit :
    BTW - thought this was an interesting discussion of someone pondering the same thing we are :



    There is no right or wrong answer here.
     
    #71 farmecologist, Jan 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  12. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2012
    2,470
    971
    0
    Location:
    Sanford, NC
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    If I buy a Tesla, it will be for the same reason I bought my Prius. The fun factor. I like different.

    I've owned 4.6 8 cyl ICE. Sedans, hatchbacks, wagons, mini-vans. I've bought more first model year cars than most have bought cars. Probably more brands too. I'm not limited to the practical. I spreadsheeted the Prius before I bought it and it worked out at $4 gas. Only it didn't. I'd have been better off financially keeping what I had and not having bought the Prius. but I wouldn't have had the fun of driving something different. I saw one in the local Walmart today and stopped to point it out to my wife. I was followed by a Maserati but didn't bother to point that out.

    People buy cars for lots of different reasons and they all don't have to be the same or right for you. Nor do they have to be rational. Nor make financial sense.
     
    farmecologist likes this.
  13. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    15,158
    5,269
    54
    Location:
    South OC So Cal & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    Not really. Not unless you have a refinery in your garage running for free. People with solar panels that are fully amortized are driving fuel cost free. Can't beat that .....

    .
     
    markabele likes this.
  14. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2009
    2,012
    1,279
    0
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    Sure if you want to say it that way...a Prius "can" have lower fuel prices than a Model 3.
    However it isn't a fair comparison, is it?
    We are comparing the Prius with gas from a low cost location to a Model 3 in a with electricity in a high cost location AND not including the possibility of solar. Seems a bit contrived, no?

    Comparing average prices, M3 wins.
    Comparing best cases, M3 wins by a lot.
    Comparing worst cases, M3 wins.
    Comparing almost any other gas car, M3 wins.
    Only when comparing best for gas and worst for electricity does gas win, even in this low point for gas prices.
    This isn't mental gymnastics, this is a case for a mental contortionist.

    The Prius is still a great car...I own a PIP...cause we use it in electric mode as much as possible

    Mike
     
    #74 3PriusMike, Jan 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2019
    markabele likes this.
  15. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2016
    1,108
    1,073
    1
    Location:
    Dana Point, CA
    Vehicle:
    2016 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    And with widely available reliable repairs, with adequate spare parts, at an economical cost in a reasonable time frame.
     
    bisco likes this.
  16. Tsiah

    Tsiah Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2017
    20
    10
    0
    Location:
    Tooele, UT
    Vehicle:
    2016 Nissan LEAF
    Model:
    N/A
    I live in Tooele and drive to Midvale 5 days a week in my Leaf. I've had several days where I've driven over 200 miles in my Leaf. Now we haveL3 charging in the city and L2 charging on both ends of my commute though.
     
    bisco likes this.
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    78,856
    33,434
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    i have never owned a luxury car, no interest. but i do know people. repairs are expensive and parts can take a long time. seen it with bmw and mercedes specifically.

    otoh, when (if) tesla ever gets down to a $35,000. car for a percent of the masses, they will need reasonable service and prices, and a good rep for quality and longevity.
    but even prius has made me aware of how expensive unusual components can be, and that will have to change as bev's continue in price reduction
     
  18. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sidewalk Supervisor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2010
    33,230
    22,220
    80
    Location:
    Greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    Touring
    Yeah, like headlights, discount price $737 here:

    Composite Headlamp - Toyota (81140-47711) | Toyota Parts

    Versus $20 for a replacement sealed-beam, a few decades back. We progress... :rolleyes:

    Or an extra "key": used to be $5 to cut an extra key, at the shoe repair place. Now, don't ask...
     
    William Redoubt and bisco like this.
  19. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    1,001
    970
    0
    Location:
    Southern MN
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    II
    Wow...the rationalization here is starting to run rampant. Sorry but the 'average use case' is folks using superchargers...NOT people with home chargers and solar panels. That adds even more cost...leaving the argument even less able to be defended. Taking the cost of the vehicle into account...the equation is certainly NOT in Tesla's favor. I'm not sure why anyone would argue that. Many Tesla owners would agree. You are not buying a Tesla to 'save money' (yet)..that is clear.

    I'm just trying to make the point that a Prius can easily come close to Tesla in terms of cost per mile...and you guys are biting my head off. Sheesh...And this happens around here nearly every time someone even brings up a little bit of criticism/comparison that may not be in Tesla's favor.

    And a thing I've seen in general is that trying to convince a Tesla owner of everything is like talking to a brick wall ( and I know some personally ). No I won't use the 'C' word and leave it at that. :whistle: And that's fine...everyone wants to justify an expensive toy. I would too if I owned one!

    Like I said..I do really like Tesla and what they are doing but it just isn't right for me at this time. Nor will it be for a while. It will be interesting when these things hit the used market in droves at some point. (y)
     
    Lightning Racer likes this.
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    22,430
    12,302
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL with 2014 BMW i3-REx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    So Saturday, I drove over 200 mi and spent 10 hours to visit a salvage yard to snag a brake booster for a 2003 Prius. In one day I doubled the labor and expense to keep that car on the road. So how much do I save by keeping that +45 MPG car operational?

    I met a man driving a new Camry hybrid at Costco. He said, ‘I won’t get payback for the hybrid.’

    I replied, ‘But it is so quieter and smoother that the gas.’ He looked relieved to have an answer to the hybrid skeptics.

    Maybe that is the right answer ... the ride quality which a hybrid has over a gasser.

    Bob Wilson
     
    bisco likes this.
Loading...