Featured Best answer I've seen yet from Toyota about going full EV

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Marine Ray, Nov 15, 2019.

  1. noonm

    noonm Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2019
    454
    419
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Vehicle:
    2018 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Undoubtedly true, as that is why Tesla went in the battery business directly.

    However, other car manufacturers could do the same rather than wait till battery companies scale up enough. The "global battery shortage" always seemed more of a convenient excuse for car makers who weren't fully committed to EVs yet.
     
  2. Marine Ray

    Marine Ray Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2017
    571
    493
    0
    Location:
    Sparks, NV
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Advanced
    Any reason Tesla can't make batteries and drive trains for other car manufacturers? i.e. QualComm used to make it's own cell phone, stopped that, now every phone has QualComm component(s) in it.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    83,893
    36,720
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    i'm sure they could, once they satisfy their own needs, which may be never
     
  4. The Electric Me

    The Electric Me Go Speed Go!

    Joined:
    May 22, 2009
    8,601
    5,148
    0
    Location:
    Undisclosed Location
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Interesting.
    They seem to be saying the pace in which Toyota joins the full EV market is being set by two major factors. Demand-which they believe is there, and Battery production and availability.

    I'm really not sure about the global demand or demand in the US and North America.
    And I think what you define as a EV, can be a pretty diverse product. That is, Tesla makes a very upscale EV product. Those are selling to a rather affluent audience.
    Nissan has sold the Leaf, for multiple years now. It's more along the lines of a full EV for the masses.

    In the US? I'm not sure about the demand. I'm sorry but I can't use the reaction's or opinions in Prius Chat as my baseline, because I think generally Prius Chat members are ahead of the curve as far as wanting full EV's.

    Some interesting statements. Nods to research and development, affirming that Toyota is vested into EV production and development. Still a cautious approach being hedged behind the excuses of battery availability.
    Plus the statement that Toyota's first full EV seems slated for limited release in Asian and European markets.

    Probably fair, as that's where I would actually believe the demand may be the greatest.

    What I don't know...and excuse my ignorance. Is where Toyota's product falls in a comparative spectrum between a Tesla and a Nissan Leaf? As already produced examples.
    Is it more a Tesla like product? or more a Nissan Leaf like product? To me, although both are pure EV's, the audience and demand for those two products can be quite divergent.
    How specialized, how unique, and what "type" of EV is Toyota planning on releasing?
    Anyway, interesting commentary, but leaves me with more questions than answers.
     
    dig4dirt likes this.
  5. Marine Ray

    Marine Ray Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2017
    571
    493
    0
    Location:
    Sparks, NV
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Advanced
    Agree, great discussion and conversation. Suspect the future of transporation will be speculative for years to come.
     
    dig4dirt likes this.
  6. smilyme

    smilyme Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2019
    111
    32
    0
    Location:
    Canada
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    PriusCamper said

    Toyota lost money on early Prius sales to develop the hybrid market.
    What effect did this have on a the world being afoot
    with new battery technology R and D and infrastructure for E Vs and Hybrids?.
    Any credit for the Toyota way in bringing us here?

    I think relatively few EV's will be produced by Toyota
    until its Solid State Batteries can be incorporated around 2024
    addressing liability, safety and charge time,
    in sync with dealers, infrastructure and demand.

    The reality is current battery supply could not meet demand for even a few % points (economically)
    of cars produced worldwide.
     
    #46 smilyme, Nov 16, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2019
  7. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    11,614
    4,379
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    Toyota knows their audience well. Being able to offer a variety of PHV models provides a strong endorsement for moving their dealerships forward. The choice of a few plug-in options complimented by a wide selection of hybrids sets the stage for EV sales later, while also taking advantage of limited battery supply now.

    It's simple math. There's far greater of an emission reduction by spreading 60 kWh of battery cells across 5 plug-in hybrids (assuming the next capacity increase is to 12 kWh) than to just 1 electric-only vehicle... since the other 4 would still be traditional guzzlers.

    Think about the likelihood of the next purchase from a PHV owner being an EV. This is why conquest isn't a concern. After all, you want the entire industry to move forward. Having some Prius owners help Tesla become established isn't a bad thing, as many attempt to lead you to believe.

    In the meantime, battery production is being refined and its chemistry improved. While in the same period, people are upgrading infrastructure in their garages, driveways, and parking lots.

    Put another way, the spin about Toyota not caring or being hopelessly behind don't match up with the reality of what's actually happening behind the scenes. That's why the term "narrative" has become the modern identifier for trolling. Antagonists hoping to undermine hope you only pay attention to what they claim is important, preventing the bigger picture from being seen.

    Having fought the green war for 20 years now (I still vividly remember my discovery of Prius & Insight way back in 1999), I see this latest kerfuffle as just a new chapter in that on-going history.
     
    reallyreal, bwilson4web and smilyme like this.
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    83,893
    36,720
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    even smaller than leaf, iirc
     
  9. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2012
    3,299
    1,195
    0
    Location:
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    For starters, an all electric car is not just putting a bunch of batteries in an existing car design... It's redesigning the entire car from the ground up and that requires massive investments because the frame of the car to carry the batteries is an entirely different animal to design in the safest most crash-protected way possible. Also look at VW, and how years ago they invested hundreds of millions to build an electric powertrain that fits in a gym bag and they're only just now introducing that advancement: VW is planning to produce 'up to 1.4 million electric drives' that fit in a gym bag - Electrek .

    And to be fair, Toyota is smart enough to realize that this is where the market is going and has partnered with Subaru to develop new chassis and drivetrains, but compared to Tesla, Kia, VW and other automakers, Toyota is years behind the pack, not leading the pack like they were in the Prius years.

    Meanwhile Tesla is almost 2 years into destroying the luxury car market sales. Every quarter the data reads like a death sentence to other luxury car makers that never thought they'd have to compete with something like Tesla. But now they do, so companies like Toyota are looking at how to transition from investing hundreds of millions to refine hybrid technology in a way that doesn't sell that investment short too soon.

    Tesla-Model-3-total-revenue-of-10-top-small-midsize-luxury-cars-in-usa-q3-2019-CleanTechnica.png
    And granted, much of what Toyota is doing regarding the downplaying of the value of electric cars is a marketing tactic, not an admission of unwillingness of moving into that market. But still, when you look at the numbers that Tesla is putting up, when you look at the factories they're building in China and now the EU... Toyota has a lot of catching up to do and heat pumps and hydrogen drives and all that other silly stuff that's exclusive to Toyota isn't going to help them catch up.
     
    #49 PriusCamper, Nov 16, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2019
    3PriusMike and Zythryn like this.
  10. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    11,614
    4,379
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    Either you're attempting to distract from facts presented or didn't understand them. A heat-pump is a vital component of an efficient EV system. The fact that Prius Prime already has one contradicts the "catch up" claim. The same goes for that "hydrogen drive", which is really a 151 hp (113 kW) traction motor for an EV system already in use by another Toyota vehicle.

    That is also quite telling. It's an advantage of carbon-fiber. By using that in key locations, weight will be reduced and strength increased... both traits essential for an EV system... and already in use by another Toyota vehicle.

    We have been watching sales of Model S and Model X decline, even before the phaseout of tax-credits began. Model 3 and Model Y will hardly bring the entire luxury market some disastrous end. In fact, they will struggle to compete with true luxury. Both are really just great high-end middle-market offerings.

    - - -

    What I find most interesting about your struggle to effectively challenge the information shared is avoidance of discussion beyond just technical concerns. Evading the topic of dealership change and consumer priorities is a dead giveaway of an incomplete analysis of the situation. Not addressing those indispensable aspects of vehicle sales means you are digging in the wrong place.
     
    salyavin and dig4dirt like this.
  11. dig4dirt

    dig4dirt MoonGlow

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2012
    482
    202
    0
    Location:
    Lancaster Co PA
    Vehicle:
    2014 Prius c
    Model:
    Two
    This discussing is probably over my head,

    however, when I think of Toyota I think I hear what they are saying/DOING.
    They make over 10 million vehicles a year.
    They employ over 350,000 people
    They are invested in so many companies, products, ideas....not including the Toyota nameplate. (HELL even TSLA once)

    They are moving slow, they have ran into many problems over their course of history.
    They have brought to market total changes that revolutionized mpg and what we would call reduction of emissions.
    They also have brought to market what we have considered flops.

    They have arguably the highest holding value of a depreciating asset/liability (for mass production vehicle)
    which is due to their arguably lowest cost of ownership and ridiculous longevity.

    If you have not already, read up and also watch some videos on the Lexus LFA
    Totally insane idea and project venture just to get to try out manufacturing processes, designs, aerodynamics,
    collaborations just for their future vehicles. wow, just wow. (maybe it is just me slobbering too much??)

    I think to do what they have done in the past and present, and soon to be future is just plain smart.
    It is just not one person or a few people that make the decision to make an EV.
    They want to make a vehicle that is reliable, economical, liked by many, and the Prius and the EV? Prius?
    will be ready, when EVERYTHING is ready.

    They will not design, manufacture and roll out into an emerging market vehicle just to beat someone else.
    It is all about the preservation of the Toyota name and meaning of it all.

    Prepare to be amazed.
    Might be 3-5 years, might be by the year 3000
    But it will be Toyota

    I suppose....just carry on....
     
    bisco, royrose and smilyme like this.
  12. smilyme

    smilyme Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2019
    111
    32
    0
    Location:
    Canada
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Its odd that the very culture at Toyota that brought us EV's a little sooner then we otherwise would have and yet its the very same culture that prevents them from advancing ahead of the snowball that they themselves created!

    That is TOYOTA first Principle: “Base your management decisions on a long-term philosophy, even at the expense of short-term financial goals.” Kaisen, the Toyota way, Toyota Production System will advance EV's' slowly incrementally, with less to no failure. Toyota's history is fascinating.
     
    #52 smilyme, Nov 16, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2019
    salyavin and dig4dirt like this.
  13. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2012
    3,299
    1,195
    0
    Location:
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    When a car company that was too small to be a threat suddenly leaps into mass production and sells close to $2 billion dollars worth of just one of their several models of luxury cars a quarter and all the other luxury car makers are only selling $1/4 to $1/2 a billion in cars a quarter, that's not friendly competition, that's a major market disruption and a catastrophic loss in market share that redefines the market... Not even Toyota's obstinate attitude about the situation is as far out of touch with your ridiculous perspective. At least they're realizing via their Toyota-Subaru EV drivetrain partnership that they have a lot of catching up to do.

    And you're going on and on about the virtues of heat pumps and hydrogen cars that are not even being produced at a competitve scale and then you claim they don't compete with "true luxury..."

    It's obvious there's no way to have a rationale intelligent discussion with you about basic facts. You're like a small child with little tiny hands over your years screaming "La la la la la, I can't here you!"
     
  14. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2012
    3,299
    1,195
    0
    Location:
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    Excellent analysis, you're far more clear minded on Toyota than @john1701a on all this...

    Perhaps the best way to understand this, is the bigger the ship, the harder it is to turn around.

    Tesla on the other hand is a much smaller ship, almost like a speed boat, which makes investors in every continent eager to build a Tesla factory. Whereas the rest of the established auto industry is faced with shutting whole factories down and laying off a major percentage of the work force because there are so many fewer parts required to build a EV compared to a Toyota hybrid.
     
  15. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    11,614
    4,379
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    There is no rationale to forcing a narrow perspective. Refusing to address the bigger picture is why I called out that post.

    If you don't like it, don't reply.
     
  16. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2012
    3,299
    1,195
    0
    Location:
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    I provided bigger picture information six ways to Sunday about what Tesla has done to other auto makers in the past couple years and all I get in reply from you is a total lack of well referenced information to counter my claims, and instead sniveling nit-picking distractions from the basic parameters and substance of the discussion.
     
  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2008
    4,872
    2,865
    1
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    If you never fail, you aren’t trying hard enough.
     
    Trollbait and smilyme like this.
  18. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    11,614
    4,379
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    Basic Fact = 151 hp (113 kW) traction motor
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    83,893
    36,720
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    a lot of people who like toyota quality say they want a toyota bev. but if toyota actually made one, i doubt it would sell much better than bolt or leaf
     
    royrose and Trollbait like this.
  20. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    11,614
    4,379
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    There's no sound basis for drawing that conclusion. Leaf's audience has moved on due to the constraints of not having any type of active cooling system. Bolt's audience was nothing but conquest sales, never appealing to GM shoppers and heavily dependent upon tax-credits. In other words, both were rush-to-market approaches... the complete opposite of Toyota.

    Toyota will have the benefit of extensive real-world experience prior to rollout here. The variety of PHEV offerings and 2 likely EV models (CH-R and a Lexus) will provide a means of accurately targeting the masses... a goal well worth taking time to achieve. We have infrastructure upgrades happening in the meantime. Heck, just being able to accept a 100 kW charge-rate would be enough completely negate any type of comparison.

    This is what the big picture consideration is all about. Claims of "catch up" simply make no sense when others are not there either. For that matter, boycotts are often pointless for the same reason. Think about all the broken promises of the past and how many rollouts fell well short of their goals.
     
    salyavin likes this.
Loading...