Featured Best answer I've seen yet from Toyota about going full EV

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Marine Ray, Nov 15, 2019.

  1. dig4dirt

    dig4dirt MoonGlow

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    Toyota double gas mileage with designing an out of this world hybrid system
    and then slapped it in an Echo shell, calling it a Prius

    They transformed a revolutionized and now stable idea into a Gen 2, then 3 then 4
    Over 20 years now....MILLIONS of them!!!!

    They made the "c" for roughly of $20k
    It did ok, not record setting, but they wanted to see how a eco hybrid could do. (The "c" is still made and sold in Japan)
    For Toyota (and C owners) it was a success.

    They now transitioned to the highly receptive, long lasting, highest selling, (many, multiple) record shattering shell
    called a Corolla, about $22k

    Possible, maybe just possible this Corolla hybrid is the test to see if sales are there (and production)

    If so, they know the details, maybe trade out that $3-5k aluminum paper weight in the front and
    trade for some chemistry to make an all time uber investment to sell
    a whole ground up design of a BEV for $22-25k

    Might not have to have 500mi range, might not have to be sporty, might not have to excel in speed (I dont think it will)
    might not satisfy everyone.
    But it would sell.
    They can have the econo life there, and also have the next levels up in Toyota,
    also would have the luxury line with Lexus.

    Just have to see if they try to go light on the range and pick up customers, with a cheaper price.
    Or if they will hold out for their breakout with the solid state.

    I think we will see some feet wetting in the meantime.
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thats exactly what i mean, leaf/bolt. it won't sell much, maybe like the prime
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i meant now. of course they will. some day.

    of course it will be a competitive bev. some day.

    but if they came out with one now, it would just be another leaf/bolt
     
  4. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    IMHO Toyota still has to deal with two barriers:

    1. The consumer and their confidence in where their EV can refuel.

    2. The dealer and where the dealer will get their profit. What will replace the profit the dealer gets from repairing the minor oil drip they pointed out to me the other day. $2,200 which contained more profit than they made selling the car.

    Even if Toyota can produce a superior car, will the dealer want to sell it and will I want to buy it if those aren't overcome. People have relationships with dealers and if they don't get help from the dealer pushing the EV then only a few will buy. And if I as a buyer can't see the charger infrastructure.

    Will Toyota EV offerings be exciting enough to develop brand ambassadors? Will Toyota cooperate with other EV makers to fund a network of charging stations?
     
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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    nope, they don't even pay for hydrogen refueling stations
     
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  6. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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  7. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    The manufacturer will have to help the dealers out. They need to be able to sell wear and tear items (basically tires and wiper blades which most people go elsewhere to get currently) and also HV battery conditioning and repair/replacement. Similar to an engine tune-up.

    Dealers can also act as waypoints for road trippers, offering DCFC for a fee and a place to rest, refuel and for the kids to play. (Some dealerships already have some of these amenities. A Lexus dealer in Alberta has a salon for the ladies to get manicures and a golf simulator for golfers to practice their swing. They also have a workspace for people to work while their car is in the service bay. Just swap all of that from servicing to charging).
     
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  8. vvillovv

    vvillovv Active Member

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    A big problem here locally anyway, is that even dealers that have charging facilities, either only have one or a pair of chargers, and haven't even yet as of Aug 2017 when we took delivery of our Prime, didn't even charge the traction pack for us. Much less have a pubic or customer charger available to use. I have charged the PiP at two different Nissan dealers chargers, but soon learned that if I wasn't interested in purchasing a Leaf I was not really welcome to use their chargers, and haven't since.

    That's a big leap, to assume most dealers will make those kinds of changes just to adopt these new things called BEV's. I wish it weren't so, and I can only imagine how long it will actually take!

    Dealers I been to more than a 2 or three times and have talk with service writers, parts counter techs and shop managers, will even complain about the price or updating their diagnostic systems to be able to read the new model features. And some of the stories I've heard have made my hair stand on end more than once.
     
    #68 vvillovv, Nov 16, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2019
  9. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    I still think there's a market for the EV that comes without any concession whatsoever towards public charging.

    The ability to avoid public energy replenishment is an underrated feature. Why replace a gas station that's everywhere with charging stations that are few & far between when you can market it as the car you only ever need to charge at home? Sure, it's still a leap for many to come to terms with their range anxiety. I get that. And not everyone has a home suitable to supply charging for said EV. But I don't think these are insurmountable. But I do think there are plenty of people who'd do just fine with a local commuter appliance car charged exclusively at home.

    The more features they leave out, the better the chances for an overall profit margin increase in sales to replace the lost service profits.
     
  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    not to get all tangled in heat pump tech - Nissan Leaf started using them earlier (2013 iirc) as did BMW's i3. So yea, Prius DID have to catch up. Let's not forget also, heat pumps on EV's are far from perfect by the mere fact they work by pumping HEAT out of cold - so once temps hit freezing and below, there's not much heat left to pump out of the cold air. So in northern states that regularly dip down to say, 20 ... 10 .... zero & below? better have seat & steering wheel warmers.
    just sayin' ...
    best to not talk up 20yrs in the green war & claim today's Fool cell tech is Toyota's, "EV already". You can fuel EV's off your roof. But try that in a hydrogen car & it takes 4X as much electricity (to use electricity to reform hydrogen) as if you'd just put the electrons in a battery. Solar charging batteries is renewable AND not 4X wasteful. Even the cheapest hydrogen reformation is done via CO2 belching coal .... or other fossil fuels. AND, you have to move to California - because it'd take trillions to build a nationwide hydrogen highway - which means the hydrogen lobby would put its trillion dollar infrastructure on the backs of taxpayers - which is exactly what cash strapped Cali has to do.
    As for electrics surving w/out incentives? best not talk up survive-ability w/out incentives either. Toyota et al carved out THE largest incentives for cars like Mirai - and yet its lease/sales are beyond bad - despite even giving it free fuel for years ... even free fuel for lease return purchases. Buying hydrogen fuel otherwise? without incentives? It's tantamount to buying $15/gallon gas. So, if we're going to talk up cars that go away w/out subsidies, best to start with cars on hydrogen that cost $50K out the door, w/out subsidies. Mirai - as an example of a Toyota EV is one heck of a distraction.
    As for other green cars being canceled, & saying it's because they can't survive w/out subsidies? That's just not true either. US car sales are trending down.
    carSales.JPG

    Lots of manufacture models being cut. Heck, even the Prius C & the Prius V became victims of the downward trend ... and they didn't even get incentives. So - pushing one liners about, "see? they couldn't make it w/out incentives, just like i always said" is simplistic. Sales are more complex than that.
    .
     
    #70 hill, Nov 17, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2019
  11. vvillovv

    vvillovv Active Member

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    So, are you saying EV's suck in the winter because they don't have enough waste heat to keep people inside the cabin warm enough in cold weather, without trouncing available charge the tiny battery packs have?

    And Toyota hasn't always been in the lead regarding all things green in our world?

    And no one could possibly see any reason why EV adoption at 5 or 10% a year might also bring with it other unforeseen issues that would than have to be repaired by future technological advances? Like terraforming Mars! Terraforming of Mars - Wikipedia
    Just a few questions I've had for the last 10 years or so with very little discussion going on, except perhaps by the climate change lobbing groups. And we all have seen how well that issue is debated Ad-infinitium!
     
  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    All the car models, Impala and CT6, built at the factory with the Volt were cancelled, and the factory closed.
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Source: S Curve - does your business need to jump to a new model?

    In the early days of a new technology, it takes a long time to improve performance. People are working out the technology, what are the applications, ironing out the flaws and building the ecosystem. Slowly over time, performance accelerates.

    After a certain time, the rate of improvement hits a peak and then starts to slow down. Easy wins have all been made and the learning curve has been fully ridden for continuous improvement. Some of the fundamental barriers of the technology are reached. Eventually, the improvement tapers off and a plateau with this technology is reached. This is the ā€œSā€ shaped curve.

    The breakthrough comes when you see a series of S curves. While your existing technology is maturing, there is another technology that is not good enough yet, because it has not been developed, but it has the potential to surpass the ceiling you have reached in your current technology.


    [​IMG]
    • 1997 (?) - generation zero Prius in Japan using D cell NiMH
    • November 2000 (?) - generation first Prius in USA using prismatic NiMH
    • September 2013 - peak USA Prius sales
    • 2019 - Toyota hybrid technology expanding across vehicle lines
    Meanwhile, the next generation, Tesla style:
    • 2012 first Tesla using laptop style batteries
    • February 2019 - $35,000-40,000 Tesla using laptop style batteries
    • December 2019 - ~350,000 Teslas in 2019, ~2/3 of all EVs in the USA
    • 2019 - performance EVs introduced by other manufacturers
    California has found 1-2 car, hydrogen fuel cell stations cost ~$2M each and hydrogen retails at 3x the cost per mile of electricity to fuel in 5 minutes. A hydrogen truck makes deliveries and fuel cell vehicles emit water to the road surface even in freezing temperatures.

    In contrast, a Tesla Supercharging facility is ~$250,000 with typically 8 stations providing enough full-speed charge to 4 Teslas that in ~15-20 minutes can reach the next Supercharger. The irony is 4 Teslas in ~20 minutes would be a similar throughput of 4 hydrogen cars fueled over ~20 minutes.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #73 bwilson4web, Nov 17, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2019
  14. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Why? Even in Minnesota, there aren't that many days requiring supplemental heating. Focus should be in the majority, not a one-size-fits all solution.

    Yet, you did anyway. My repeated point was to reuse that same motor in an EV. Benefiting from development elsewhere is sensible use of resources.
     
  15. vvillovv

    vvillovv Active Member

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    Trying to determine what is going to happen in the next ten years, is like watching a sci-fi movie.
    With some things like weather, even today, it can still be hard to predict some weather patterns on a daily basis. Although I admit the weather forecast is way better than it was 10 years ago and will hopefully be better in another 10 years from now.

    edit: has Nicola's formula for electrical wireless transmission been fully uncovered yet?
    Nikola Tesla and his work in wireless energy and power transfer – Contemporary Sci & Innovation
     
    #75 vvillovv, Nov 17, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2019
  16. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Adding to that is the irony of megawatt EV charging stations may very well end up with hydrogen sourced fuel-cells to supplement electricity during times of high demand. Of course, it doesn't matter. The shipping industry is looking into hydrogen to replace diesel. So whether or not passenger vehicles use it is a moot point. Realistically, it doesn't matter anyway. Starting with cars is far less expensive than commercial vehicles, which is really the primary target. EV enthusiasts simply feel threatened by the multi-fuel solutions. Ugh. It's somewhat amusing to foresee hydrogen being used for green storage later too, since the grid can't hold all of it.
     
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  17. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Some of us have watched so much sci-fi, they become part of it. Read my blogs from over the past 20 years (nearly 1000 pages now). There are a few predictions in there that I nailed a decade before it unfolded. That's not a magical outcome. It's really just careful study of patterns & markets. But it does provide an interesting read to seemingly dull content.
     
  18. vvillovv

    vvillovv Active Member

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    It can be hard to convince most people that there are many things in this world that are closely guarded secrets. Some so secret that 99.999999% of the population will never know of their existence. Much less begin to even imagine what some of those secret things might be, really.
     
  19. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    The EV1 had a heat pump. From the experience, GM decided to use resistance heaters for their plug-ins. :D
     
  20. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    A heat pump can give you ~3x the heat per watt vs. a resistance heater, in milder temps anyway.

    I'm guessing it cost well more than 3x to maintain & support vs. a resistance heater.

    I still don't get why EVs and PHEVs aren't set up to do a grid-sourced preheat of the cabin, battery and engine block (for PHEVs) when they finish overnight charging.
     
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