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Featured California Auto Outlook 3Q2018

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by wjtracy, Nov 28, 2018.

  1. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Here is the CNCDA auto outlook report for 3rd quarter
    https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-18.pdf

    I see some interesting numbers:

    Ca. Sales (YTD 3rd Quarter)
    BEV 61,386 (42% of USA sales)
    PHEV 45,537 (53% of USA sales)

    USA Sales (YTD 3rd Quarter)
    BEV 144,505
    PHEV 85,369

    So these 3Q numbers are unusual, representing a number of factors. I attempt to interpret below.

    (1) Normally, PHEV sales in Ca. are about 40% of USA but this year we are approaching 55% of PHEV sales sales in Ca. I tentatively attribute this to the new HOV rules in California, requiring current Ca. plug-in owners to get new plug-ins to stay in HOV beyond Jan_2019.

    (1) BEV., normally Ca. is 50% of BEV market, now dropping down to 42%. What's happening here is the Tesla Model-3 sales are swamping the normal annual trends, and it would appear Tesla is selling more of the Model-3's outside of Calfornia. Interesting question- I wonder if this reflects Telsa Model-3 demand, or if for some strategic reason (credits etc) Telsa wants to hold back on Ca. supply?

    If we could hypothetically remove the Model-3 sales (one way to do this is look at 2Q numbers) then BEV sales are also up in Ca. like PHEV reflecting the HOV sticker expiration effect and possibly the approaching Federal tax credit limit on Teslas.
     
    #1 wjtracy, Nov 28, 2018
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    seeing a lot of m3's around here, but i don't think it is allocation. i believe it is first come first serve until the preorders are finished.
     
    #2 bisco, Nov 28, 2018
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  3. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    I just drove by the Palm Springs Tesla dealer last weekend and there were plenty of Model 3’s waiting there:).

    Maybe a dozen or so that didn’t look spoken for:whistle:.

    But it is just down the street from the Lamborghini and Bentley dealer which had plenty of customers at it:cool:.

    Almost did a test drive in the Model 3 though (y).
     
    #3 Raytheeagle, Nov 28, 2018
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  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Simple logistics had Tesla delivering the Model 3 to mostly California at first. So some of those preorders got cleared out before they got production ramped up. Which happened in the third quarter.

    Tesla doesn't need ZEV credits, and I think California has means tested limits on their BEV rebate, so I don't see any advantage for Tesla to limit sales there.

    What is the annual trend like? Could the BEV sales drop be seasonal; people waiting until the end of the year for better deals and shorter wait for the tax credit?
     
    #4 Trollbait, Nov 28, 2018
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