Can Model 3 compete mainstream?

i think it can be, but there are financial hurdles. i wouldn't call it mainstream, but it will certainly make an impact if we ever get there.
not only model 3 either. others will compete to some extent, and they have the benefit of good cash flow.

 

With TSLAs recent issues, it is coming to light that the small battery ($35k Tesla ) is likely far off into the future.

Add production delays, dropping stock values, rust and general management failures I doubt it.

 

Tesla is pushing the envelope with the model 3, a fact that the CNN reviewer doesn't seem to get (his review is a couple of months old). Like the first smartphones, the first couple hundred thousand model 3s will appeal to only a certain group of people who like technology and the latest advancements and innovations. They will open the door to a new revolution in personal transportation. The more that the average consumer sees the model 3, the more comfortable they will be with the concept, just like the smartphone. I think that it will be easy for Tesla to find 1M early adopters, worldwide, each year for the next couple of years and then the numbers will explode as more BEV models hit the road and Teslas become even more mainstream. For example Lincoln has just announced an "innovative" "new" idea for their ICE cars - no car key and everything will be controlled by a smartphone app! And for the record, the standard range model 3 will be introduced by the end of 2018. The center UI screen is evolving into a voice command interface. Tesla can do that by OTA improvements in the car. No other automaker has that capability right now. The CNN reviewer didn't do his homework and as a result, I find him "annoying as hell."

Yes, Tesla is in the early stages of becoming a mainstream car company. Toyota will have a lot of catching up to do including the expense of participating in a worldwide charging infrastructure. Gasoline is a non-renewable resource and ICE are in an inevitable death spiral. As the demand for gasoline goes down, the price will go up through lower economies of scale. ICE cars will become way more expensive than BEV cars to operate and maintain. Just like landline telephones are losing market share to smartphones, ICE makers are losing market share to Tesla because a Tesla is just a better idea.

The future of an innovative company like Tesla does, indeed, look bright. And with the model 3, the FUTURE is here, now. IMO, all the members here on Prius Chat will be driving a Tesla-like BEV in the next few years. That is mainstream.

 

amen brother!

 

Well put. I find it interesting that most of the reviews that aren't glowing are from either big media companies trying to rock the boat and get some more clicks or from "car guy" type websites that obviously have an affinity for the gears, engines, fluids, and the corresponding sounds an ICE car makes.

 

or wall street, which is cleaning up on shorts.

 

Ya, kinda disgusting. Oh well, they are the ones who have to look at themselves in the mirror.

 

Tesla stock bombing in last month. They need to start making profit someday or else.
tesla stock price graph - Google Search

 

Too many things controlled through the touchscreen. Maybe they did it to save on parts costs. Having to adjust autopilot speed through touchscreen, overkill? See video.

 

Um, err, duhh, your forgetting one little tiny detail, Tesla has been operating at a loss for years and the Model 3 does not guarantee Tesla's future.

Tesla Profit Margin (Quarterly) (TSLA)

 

Tesla seems to have bet the farm on their "alien dreadnought." If that is successful (time will tell) then they will be as well. The operating at loss thing doesn't bother me for a company like this. See what Amazon did for lots and lots of years making investments in their operations for a comparison. If you look historically, however, betting against Elon usually hasn't worked out for people.

 

Operating at a loss while expanding globally is not an issue for me.
Where Tesla’s real challenge is, is in being able to produce at a scale large enough.
They have to show a clear path to their 5000/month and beyond.

The shame of this is, Toyota and many other companies already have the production capacity. They could be building hundreds of thousands Model 3 class vehicles.

As is, I love driving my 6 week old Model 3. Love the center console and the control UI. I like it even more after a couple tweaks in the last OTA update.
I just ho-e Tesla can get the production scaled up.

 

Now that they seem to be at or near 2k per week I firmly believe they will be able to keep ramping. Almost guaranteed is that it won't be fast enough for what most people want though.

Long term they need to get to about 10k a week. If they can be at that number by the end of 2019 I'd be extremely happy.

 

But not all losses are the same. Having something to show for them can make them worth it. Tesla's losses are of those type; from capital investment in the Supercharger network and factories. Which will pay off down the road.

They aren't loses in the bad sense, but headlines fail to mention that.

 

I agree with your comments on cap ex, however, they are currently losing money on every Model 3 they sell. I forget what number they said they needed to be at to break even on them (economies of scale and all that). I want to say about 2500 per week but could be wrong. And I'm a huge Tesla fanboy, so I have no incentive to say bad things about them.

 

You and the CNN reviewer spoke too soon. As of two days ago, through an OTA update, both autopilot speed and following distance can be controlled by either the central UI screen or the right scroll wheel on the steering wheel. The next update will be simple voice command controls for the autopilot if you wish. You don't understand the concept, do you?

Actually Tesla did provide the central UI screen to simplify assembly and reduce costs when providing LHD and RHD cars for different countries. It is a brilliant idea. They can produce the car for a lower cost which saves the consumer money. I know you understand that concept!

 

Well yes, Tesla has been operating at a loss overall. However, both their Model S and Model X cars are profitable at this point. The reason for the operating loss over the years is Tesla's massive investment in infrastructure - the Supercharger system and the Gigafactory. Tesla wisely put the horse before the cart - a way to charge cars before they build the cars. The current pretenders for the EV market are putting the cart before the horse - Nissan, Chevrolet, Jaguar, BWM are building EV cars first and they say they will build their charger network later. So their cars are relegated to be around town and grocery getters as opposed to Tesla's cross country cruisers. Tesla may be unprofitable at this time, but they are in the driver's seat and will be profitable within a year as model 3 production ramps up.

 

So far - GM, Toyota, Ford, VW et al have all survived their fatalities / defects / coverup's / sub par quality / shenanigans etc. But on a (relatively) brand new auto plant? It takes much less to become OMG!!
it's like the first few battery fires with Tesla & GM. It makes for good drama on the news column & sells ads. Never mind that statistically injuries & fatalities in comparison to auto gasoline explosions are statistically off-the-chart in comparison.
Similarly, there was a model X fatality in Cali about a week ago & autopilit II was turned on. Nevermind that the autopilot feature is statistically showing somewhere between 40/50% less accidents per billion miles. that doesn't sell hand-wringing drama.
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Not too dissimilar to the way Prius and Prius Prime dashes are set up.

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