Changing people's minds on climate change

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by Bluegrassman, Dec 6, 2016.

  1. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Tochatihu notes that mojo's Greenland graph ends quite some time ago. I have taken the liberty of plotting the current 8-year average of -29C directly on to mojo's graph:
    As can be seen from the scale, the "Unprecedently COLD!" statement refers to some time in the past, ending at least 95 years before 2000 AD, possible even earlier.

    That cold snap is now long gone. Today it is quite warm again.
     
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  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Quite warm - yeah right. The most recent 10,000 years of this 100,000 year (about?) core shows proxy T range -32 to -28.5 oC.

    Most recent on site direct measurements average -29 over 8 years.

    I have a more restrictive personal definition of warm.

    +++

    These ice cores (all of them) record oxygen isotope ratios (thus a T proxy) for wherever that water entered the atmosphere. Possibly, to a more limited extent, the T where that water froze out and fell. Thus they are less than 'global T thermometers' But they represent much of our proxy records for time before a few thousand years. The shorter record has many other T proxies, and not restricted to ice places.

    Ice cores are better at capturing globally averaged [CO2], because it is pretty well globally mixed in troposphere. Temperature is not. Plus they do other interesting things like volcanic sulfate. So, use them with appropriate recognition of their limitations.
     
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  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    I normally look in the references to get the original story but this time, something else:

    Detecting Misinformation Can Improve Memory Later on
    Jan. 3, 2017 — Exposure to false information about an event usually makes it more difficult for people to recall the original details, but new research suggests that there may be times when misinformation actually ... read more
    Selective Media Coverage May Cause Us to Forget Certain Health Facts
    Nov. 2, 2015 — The health facts presented by mass media in the midst of a disease outbreak are likely to influence what we remember about the disease. New research suggests that the same mass media coverage may ... read more
    Misinformation Diffusing Online
    July 31, 2014 — The spread of misinformation through online social networks is becoming an increasingly worrying problem. Researchers have now modeled how such fictions and diffuse through those networks. They ... read more
    Misinformation: Why It Sticks and How to Fix It
    Sep. 19, 2012 — Childhood vaccines do not cause autism. Barack Obama was born in the United States. Global warming is confirmed by science. And yet, many people believe claims to the contrary. Why does that kind of ... read more

    These may be credible justifications for dealing with our local 'coal troll': "Improve Memory", guard against "Forget Certain Health Facts", documenting "Misinformation Diffusing Online", and "Misinformation: Why it Sticks and How to Fix It." I could almost agree but turning off 'ignore user' appears to only the increasing flood of nonsense. It suggests a tactical approach of 'flooding' which turning up the squelch works.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I am not thinking about any particular PC poster, rather, effective communications.

    I self-assess that I do it here in two very different ways. One is to pile on details. Another is to 'hit for the fences' in terms of biological oddities, pee and poo, and such things. These are two very different communication styles. Neither is the gentle vaccination proposed in [email protected]

    It all seems very complex. Climate/carbon/energy stands apart because only here is 'science appreciation' opposed by the world's (currently) largest money industry.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Perhaps it is common knowledge that vaccine/autism arose from one publication, later retracted because of methodological flaws. Or perhaps not. In climate/carbon, much is made of methodological flaws even if they are only perceived. Very perplexing.

    Here you see a person 'magnetically' drawn to concordance of diverse evidence. Science bumbles towards truth. I'm OK with that, and if some other system could bumble better, I'd really like to know about it.

    Still trying to understand why there are two of me. Science (otherwise) has no big-money opponent. Sure, evolution has opposition, effective opposition (according to public-opinion polls), but somehow there I just do pedantry in the other (fun) way.

    Perhaps it boils down to urgency. Climate science is always cast as urgent, whether as "we all die soon' by one side, or 'we'll spend ourselves dry' by the other. Yet both of these feel wrong to me, because the real larger problem is that human population growth rates are highest in countries with least energy and least water and least food-supply security.

    How can that possibly not be a large concern? How can we possibly fritter away discussions on the next +1 oC or imaginary $trillions to be spent to prevent that?

    We seem to do our climate discussions wrong. I don't know how to focus those better. I reckon that my enjoyment of 'biology is wow' may be just a place to hide.
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    You are bringing up an interesting thought, extinction. We know humans have driven species to extinction usually by unplanned ignorance. For example, the passenger pigeon which are not the only species. Yet we can't get those dang mosquitos!

    There was a recent Vice News story about how Russians along their Arctic coast are embracing global warming. Given what happens to their commerce and business when Arctic navigation is open, it makes sense. Those Russians are immune to the effects of flooding of the low-lying Asian planes. One common word the Russians used,"adapt," and something that I can agree with.

    My disagreement with the 'coal troll' is he continues to spout nonscientific nonsense about the role of CO{2}. Yet I suspect we could discuss adaption. Furthermore, the technologies that reduce CO{2} generation also lead to higher efficiencies ... in effect stretching cheap fossil fuels into the future.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Will respond more, later. Just now, 'higher efficiencies' allow for $$ savings in high-energy countries. New energy deployment critically matters for low-energy countries, but best mix must have a local 'stamp' and money will come from ???

    "Stretching cheap fossil fuels into the future" has a couple of troubles. First, their cheapness depends on ignoring externalities. Second, there is only one clear unique value to this energy source - it increases atmospheric CO2. Should it in future (surprisingly) be the case that glaciation looms at 600 ppm CO2, we could fight back by burning up to 700. Or 800. An ace in the hole so to speak. Hoping 1000 ppm would not be required, because at about that level human cognition is affected in not a good way.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Now, we make all manner of designer hydrocarbons from oil and less from coal. While it is really good to make such things, there is no fundamental reason why 'current' hydrocarbons from growing plants could not be just as good sources.

    Well, OK, what if 'older' hydrocarbons are particularly good synthetic-chemistry precursors? None of them are nearing depletion. Not even almost.
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    We do make hydrocarbons from plants in the form of organic acids, with the help of bacteria and fungi, already. I work in a research group looking into ways of coproducing them within an ethanol plant. Yeast only eats 6 carbon sugars, but there are still 5 carbon ones left over that other things can eat after you extract the ethanol.
     
  11. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    So why is it ok for you to add 2.5 degrees C to this graph?
    The Earth has warmed .8 degrees in the past century.If you need help ask Dana Nutsacksilly.
    He couldnt answer the question here a few years back when I called out Skeptical Science website for posting a similar graph.

     
  12. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Answered more than six months ago, in the very post to which you are replying.

    The title of the graph does not apply to modem times. The displayed time window of the graph ends much more than a century ago. I merely added a 21st Century datapoint.
     
  13. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    This article indicates that Greenland is currently 0.8C warmer than the average of the last 4000 years, flatly contradicting the 'Unprecedented COLD!' title of your prior linked article. And the current warm temperature really stands out against the 1.5C cooling trend of the overall 4000 year period.

    The current temperature is not outside the normal variation envelope. While I'm not a fan of simple trend analysis, having seen very many of them busted shortly after publication, this article suggests that AGW would put this above that envelope by year 2100.

    That cooling trend you keep claiming is just around the corner, in just a very few years, looks like it was actually here already, for several thousand years. But something put it back into hiding. Such as AGW cancelling the next Ice Age that was supposed to be slowly coming, or something like that.
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    We might also want to look at Figure 1 in Kobashi et al. 2011. It shows most recent T warmer than most of last 4000 years, and warmer than almost all of last 1000 years.

    Those with deeper interest will read about the climate modeling and temperature adjustments required to carry out this study. You may find posters here who are strongly opposed to climate modeling and temperature adjustments. Except for those that suit some agenda.
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "Knowing that Tom Steyer controls the Dem party"@66. Some people have special ways of knowing, to be sure.

    Not all of the names below came from Koch brothers I suppose, but many did. This relates to my way of knowing who controls. I count things.

    Dirty Deputies

    +++
    Also, when counting energy subsidies, both those for renewables and fossils should get counted. Counting just the first (as if that is the only possible path to Thorium) is a special way of counting.
     
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  17. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    OK 0.8 degrees rise is acceptable you added 2.5 degrees to my graph Nutsacksilly added 3.5 degrees.
    You are not as big a liar as Skeptical Science .Congratulations.
     
  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Different papers, different graphs, different T diffs. Try to keep up.

    As a refresher to others, at #68, mojo posted a graph titled 'Unprecedented COLD!', showing ten millennia of temperatures on a time scale ending more than a century ago. At #70, tochatihu mentioned the modern temperature of that location. At #71, I reposted the same graph from #68 but adding the date-temperature from #70.

    Now, six months later, mojo suddenly objects to my post #71. But instead of challenging factual details, he brings only misdirection, obfuscation, and personal insults. I.e. his normal pattern.

    If only he could follow his on declarations about when someone should shut up ...
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Perhaps @mojo might translate the recent press meeting at the White House. Talk about a disconnect from reality.

    Bob Wilson
     
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