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Chelyabinsk meteor . . . Holy Carp!

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by bwilson4web, Feb 15, 2013.

  1. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    Another picture of the Chelyabinsk Oblast



    [​IMG]
     
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  2. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    "....until it was too late!" ????

    Any idea of how much more warning time would have been available if it came from an easier direction to detect? Two seconds, maybe three?

    (Actually, I don't know the answer, so my humor can backfire on me.)
     
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  3. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    Ya Think Bra... [​IMG]
     
  4. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    Try to as little as possible... it hurts.
     
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Here is the proposed Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS):
    http://tfa.cfht.hawaii.edu/presentations/Tonry_tfa_2Mar2011.pdf
    (well worth a quick review)

    Consisting of pairs of wide area telescopes, ground based, these offer an initial approach to scan for incoming meteors. However, any ground based system is subject to local climate limits.

    The obvious improvement would be a suite of high, orbital observatories. This eliminates the weather and atmospheric effects and also increases the parallax distance for improved detection at greater distances. Pairs of satellites orbiting in formation would be an awesome solution for early detection. However, this would be two orders of magnitude more expensive and capable.

    Existing systems have a limited view but have been able to quantify the risk. ATLAS makes over an order of magnitude improvement. It also provides background monitoring of galaxies, a never sleeping eye (although sometimes weather obscured.) But other space qualified nations (and near qualified) could contribute too. Especially those with geography high and dry enough to host observatories.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Good stuff, Bob.

    Let us realize that the big rocks are much fewer, more dangerous, and easier to detect. The 10 to 100 meter class are much more frequent, fragment in the atmosphere, and throw glass shards in our faces via the sonic boom. The 'sub-10's' are simply entertaining.

    Now, NASA etc. say they have 95% of the big rocks mapped, which of course I doubt :eek: . Infrared scopes, orbiting above the atmosphere, are the best way to infill any gaps because lotsa rocks have low albedo. Also such scopes would be well situated to look for atmospheric oxygen (life) signals from nearby exoplanets. Two benefits from such scans. I wholly reject the idea of looking for sub-100 m rocks. Our outward-looking resources are few and very costly. The larger rocks should be the focus.

    I really don't know if y'all have got the idea that an important 'big' and an ignorable 'low-middle' zizzed the Earth on the same day. It is like in poker, that you drew the royal flush two hands in a row. Or maybe 4 hands. But it is pushing the line on remote improbablity!
     
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  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Seriously, does anyone want to spend (substantial) money to look for more rocks? We may be in a 'chicken little' phase now, like those earlier for which environ-whatevers have been trashed. Choose your battles (money sinks) carefully.
     
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  9. OceanEyes

    OceanEyes Active Member

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    Shades of Armageddon! "Bogies are breaching the atmosphere..."
     
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  10. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    The Marsans are here!!! Quick call MIB Headquarters before we are takened over by the alien invaders.

    DBCassidy
     
  11. DadofHedgehog

    DadofHedgehog Active Member

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    I think this was explored as a concept in SciFi literature by Arthur C. Clarke in his "Rendezvous with Rama" back about 40 years ago. Iread the book instead of focusing on my algebra homework :D
     
  12. JMD

    JMD 2012 Prius 4 Solar Roof

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    No Korea missile lost it's way?
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    In theory, a multi-decade long project using electric ion or solar sail might nudge a space rock to use use planetary gravitational assist to increase the velocity. The final nudge would pass around the sun and use Mercury and Venus for fine tuning. The moon might provide final country selection. Non-nuclear, high angle, it would be a great plot for a James Bond movie, Tom Clancy book, or politician.

    Who would do such a thing:
    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
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  14. Trebuchet

    Trebuchet Senior Member

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    pfffft. It's just money when it run's out we borrow more from you guys or simply print more.

    BTW: Russian meteorite 1,000 times larger than first thought.

    Russian meteorite 1,000 times bigger than originally thought | Fox News
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Great link to Fox 'doing what they do'. It is certainly one for the textbooks.

    We are still stuck with the small (and more numerous) rocks being very costly to detect and track. Now we see that (at least with low entry angles) they are but window breakers. Um, more or less.

    If you want to use one of these as a directed weapon, choose one with very low content of volatiles. They tend to jet out unsymmetrically and make it uncertain that you can hit the city you're aiming for.

    I would re-aim them to miss the Earth and hit the moon instead. Big target, and you avoid their future looping around the sun and maybe lining up for another Earth strike later. This is the traditional function of the moon (well, there are others) as a rock dump. Anybody interested in colonizing the moon or mining 3He there would probably disagree :)
     
  16. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    I disagree.

    I think we can divert some of our military coins to a new mission... it may well save the planet.
     
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  17. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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  18. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    So who has the earth under siege?
     
  19. Trebuchet

    Trebuchet Senior Member

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    What does Fox have to do with it?
     
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Fossil fuels?

    Bob Wilson