Climate Change: A Risk Assessment

I'll download the report and read it with these caveats:

• Is the IPCC doing this too?
• Three deniers (Christie, Curry, and Mojo) frequently cite suspicious economic reasons, a 'risk assessment' term.
• Bad experience with "Dust-to-Dust" report that claimed Hummers were 'greener' than Prius using dodgy numbers.
• Decade of "Prius gas savings won't pay for higher purchase price." (pending $3/gal. gas, short lifetime)

It would be unfair to read this report without reminding folks this is not our first rodeo. In part because it means we're moving a step away from natural science into an area where 'tax cheating' accountants reside.

Bob Wilson

 

I did pick up one thing from the "Risk" report. They have charts about heat effects on humans including one about the ability to work and another about 'sleep.' One of our first Prius mods was to install a 1 kW inverter for emergency power. Serendipity:

• gas heater has 750 W furnace fan - we stay warm in winter outages
• 5000 BTU window AC - we stay cool in bedroom in summer outages

Their report shows no problem until AFTER a 2C temperature rise from today's (report) value. Then the 3d world gets impacted. It takes 4C before industrialized countries have a problem with sleeping. But I remain skeptical because their basis of estimate is not clear.

Bob Wilson

 

Just FYI, city of Austin has completed a assessment for climate change
http://austintexas.gov/sites/default/files/files/Sustainability/Climate/Toward_a_Climate_Resilient_Austin.pdf

The average rainfall for my city is predicted to remain stable, but droughts and floods may become more severe. 2011 had rolling black outs from winter cold (poor planning in ercot, and cold power plants were not properly maintained for the periodic cold) followed by a low rainfall extreme heat summer with fires. This year had severe flooding. Peak generation needs to get improved as well as fire fighting preparedness (state government was cutting fire budgets as forests burned).

The city is a leader in reduction of ghg from electric generation and soon should be ooal free with over 30% of power from fossil free resources. The utility is owned by the city, but when the coal goes away other taxes will probably rise. Unfortunately traffic is awful (worst for a city our size) which means cars produce a lot more ghg. The city and utility has a lot of prii, and a smart car car sharing service (car2go). The water resources are stretched with a growing population. University of Texas hosted a major climate conference last fall, but state policies don't follow city policies. The last governor had part of assessment for galveston with rising sea levels redacted as a political fight against climate change (not even sited as human caused) being mentioned. National policies are worse than my state.

 

Now this makes sense, a regional risk assessment plan. The global plan didn't.

Bob Wilson