Climate of last 100 years

Three links for you:

Climate Variability and Inferring Global Warming | context/Earth

The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years? Part 2.

The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years?

The first goes to an individual’s website who describes an empirical climate model. Mostly ENSO and CO2, but with some solar forcing and aerosols. Literature citations are included.

The others are a two-part series authored by Dr. Zhou, who I previously mentioned in relation to papers he coauthored with Tung. I realize that mojo has a rule that the SkS website is not to be mentioned or linked here, so I wish to be clear why I have done so.

Zhou and Tung’s studies have been, in my view, more supportive of a strong solar-climate connection than anything else you will encounter in the mainstream literature. This is why I suggested them at PC before. If you read the studies, you know that already. Given the unique position of Zhou and Tung among climate scientists, I consider it worthwhile to read how they explain their research to the public. This they did at SkS. One would be mistaken to take that as my personal endorsement of SkS’ other articles, summaries, or reader comments.

Just read what these folks have done, open up their citations if you like. Let’s discuss whether the important factors are in these various models appropriately. If so, then can they be used for 10 to 100 year predictions?

It could be that controls on climate during the previous 100 years are very well worked out. First link is quite empirical, which means (to me) that it could be used for the next 100 years, only if the ocean effects continue substantially as they have been. The other two links present a more positive view than mine about mechanistic understanding of ocean effects. With the mechanisms firmly understood, I think we’re good to go. But I might suggest a very stringent test for that. Not only should the models say that each decade air-T have been warmer than the previous; that’s easy. But going backwards (or forwards) how much warmer than the previous?