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Conclusions from suppressed EPA report on CO2 Endangerment

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by TimBikes, Jul 1, 2009.

  1. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    I am *so* bored by the folks who can only respond in knee-jerk fashion "just read RealClimate".

    Here is what is happening at RealClimate:

    Real Climate Permits the continued presentation of misinformation, Part II.
    Coming from a well respected climatologist, this critique is enough certainly to make one question some of the views promulgated there.

    Anyway, is someone going to answer the question why there is little warming from 1979-1997 despite the rapid increase in CO2 or why there is again little warming from 1998-2008? Cat got your tongues? Answer the question.
     
  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Tell me Tim, if one (Pielke) climatologist's criticism of RealClimate raise questions in your mind about RealClimate, what does a bevy of criticisms levied at Pielke by at least equally renowned climatologists raise in your mind about Pielke ?

    What does Pielke's criticism of the Copenhagen summary conclusions -- by expert climatologists NOT attached to RealClimate in any way -- raise in your mind regarding Pielke ?

    I'll answer my own question: nothing. Because you give a free pass to the handfull of remaining scientist denialists, but have grave doubts about the other 99% of the scientific community at the drop of a pin or personality squabble.

    Whatever. You can expect "knee-jerk" responses to go read RealClimate every time you troll or bring up denialist drivel. Consider it along the same lines as being told to read the Toyota FAQ if you were to say 'worry' over Prius battery longevity.
     
  3. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    Sorry, I lump all you deniers into a pile. Seems to me that a lot of you say there is in fact cooling going on.

    By the way what you call minimal real climatologists call an emergency. I'm going with them, sorry.
     
  4. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Fibb, Sage. Answer the question. Answer the question. What's wrong, no pat answers over on RealClimate? Of course not. They don't have an answer that fits anthropogenic CO2 warming with empirical troposphere temperature data.

    Answer the question.
     
  5. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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  6. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    ok, this thread needs to be retitled "global warming debate part 2"
     
  7. Celtic Blue

    Celtic Blue New Member

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    Probably best to merge it into the one trash denialist thread...

    Giving a thread to every lamebrained denialist theory embraced by the likes of Tim seems a waste of electrons.
     
  8. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Answer the question.
     
  9. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    http://bit.ly/50Pb5
     
  10. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    The question was answered. There is significant warming. You just don't want to see it. The same people that produce the data you present also publish a written report:

    NCDC: Climate of 2009 - April

    "Global Temperature Highlights
    April's combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.06 degree F above the 20th century average of 56.7 degrees F. The most significant warmth occurred in northern and northeastern Asia, Europe, and much of the planet's southern oceans.

    The global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 55.8 degrees F is tied with 2003 for the sixth-warmest January-through-April period on record. This value is 0.97 degree F above the 20th century average.

    The global land surface temperature for April was 1.80 degrees F degrees above the 20th century average of 46.5 degrees F degrees."

    This is the correct way to interpret the data.
     
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  11. Heretic

    Heretic New Member

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    I never said you did. But it is the logical implication of your thesis. The rest of the scientific community (the "warmists" as you call them) has acknowledged the global implications of increasing atmospheric CO2 in contradiction to your "evidence", which means that all the scientists involved are either a) all wrong, or b) all lying. Either way, the result is a massive international conspiracy.

    Perhaps you should think your argument all the way through first before continuing.

    Are they the warmists fears? My research suggests the 2-3 C is still the far more likely scenario. What sources to the contrary have you read?

    First, it isn't my trendline. It's the same trendline used by those collecting the data. You'd have noticed similar trendlines in my links here, here, and here had you bothered to read them. So if it were deliberate deception (it's not), it would be theirs (so much for not being a conspiracy, huh?). Second, the only real deception here is in your ridiculous cherry pick, as I already pointed out, a common denier tactic used in this case in an attempt to equate weather fluctuations to climate.

    I already did, but you apparently didn't read it. Since you're incapable or unwilling to do the reading and research on your own, I suppose I'll have to hold your hand and walk you through it...

    And here's one via NASA:
    So in short, short-term variability is masking the long term warming signal. Longer time frames sort out the weather from climate, which is why the trend was so prevalent in my graph but not in your "it was cold last winter therefore we'll never have summer again" analysis.

    Right. It's a conspiracy... obviously... :der:
     
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  12. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Heretic - so much to respond to but so little of it on point. Did you answer the question? No. You did not. But using your own link, it is apparent that the trend is only 1.5 C / century in the worst case (TLT). And of course, the TLTchannel simply re-affirms the troposphere temperature chart that I showed which once again, begs the question that you won't answer - what happened for the nearly 20 years worth of data from 1979 - 1997 in which there was a tremendous increase in CO2 but no corresponding rise in temperature? Certainly this is a long enough timeframe to separate weather from climate, don't you agree? So unless you are proposing that CO2 build-up somehow did not effect temperature for 20 years then suddenly caused the 1998 El Nino, you really have no leg to stand on.

    With regard to the "warmists" claims of 4-6 degrees of warming, here is a perfect example (found in about 0.005 seconds of googling). You know as well as I that the scare scenarios focus on upper range IPCC projections (or worse, such as Algore and his 21 feet of sea level rise).
    In my view, CO2 can cause some warming - I have never said it could not. My argument is the effect is very likely highly overstated (certainly by the media) and climate models are highly unreliable in their predictive skill in any case. Further, attempt to regulate CO2 - as per the latest EPA move or the Waxman-Markey climate bill - will result in meaningless impacts on global temperatures. W-M is projected to reduce tempertures by about 1/10th of a degree C by 2100.

    Lastly, back to the original point of the posting, I think EPA is obligated to air some of the points raised by Carlin and Davidson -- a prime example being a troposphere temperature profile that does not inspire much confidence in the presumed warming powers of CO2.
     
  13. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    You are of course WRONG Alric. You are doing the very same thing you (and Heretic) routinely accuse others of doing. Confusing weather with climate. You take one month, and draw sweeping conclusions about climate based on that one month. Well guess what, I could pick June 2009 (instead of April) and show that the temperature is no different than when the satellite temperature record started in 1979. That is not meaningful. But in my view, nearly 20 years with very little temperature increase (1979 - 1997) - that IS significant - and should raise serious questions about the effects of CO2.

    And while we are at it, can you answer for me, since you never did the first time I asked many months ago, how a similar period (pick your start point - 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950) through to 1980 showed NO WARMING. And if you looked at the CO2 profile in conjunction with this data, you would see that CO2 increased dramatically after 1940. Why no effect on temperatures for 40+ years?

    [​IMG]


    And while you're at it, why the dramatic run-up in temps before 1940 when CO2 levels were quite low?
     
  14. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    Many months ago I tried to explain to you that you can not pick or choose a point in time and use it for your argument. You also can't expect a linear or fitted trend out of a complex system.

    If you can think of a complex system without variation over time I'd like to see it.
     
  15. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    And yet you pick a single month - April 2009 - to try to prove some point two posts prior, while I pick 40 to 70 year timespans. Hmm.
     
  16. acdii

    acdii Active Member

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    100-200 years is a pin prick in the time this earth has revolved. During that time the earth warmed, plant and animal life flourished, the earth cooled, plants died, animals either adapted or died, earth warmed, new species flourished, etc.

    Man, in his total arrogance believes that he, and he alone can change the climate of this planet by spewing gasses into the atmosphere with fossil fuel burning vehicles and industry. Man, in his total ignorance looks at this tiny tiny picture in the window of time that humans walked the face of the earth, and believes it too.

    In all honesty, there is not enough hard evidence going back far enough to accurately predict what the climate of this planet will be like in the near future, and not enough evidence that what is being sent into the atmosphere will have any long term affect. Based on just a few hundred years of scattered data, is not enough to get a good insight of what climate actually is like on this planet. Climate changes constantly, and it is a known fact that it does, there have been mini ice ages recently, we know there have been glaciers covering half of the planet, and that was before we walked the earth. We also know there were tropical forests up in the arctic circle.

    Remember the hard known truth about computers, garbage in = garbage out. Anyone can program a computer to spew out what they want it to.

    Bottom line, the climate will change, not because of what we do, but because that is what it does, it will change with or without any intervention from us.

    I am all for a cleaner environment, but not at the outrageousness that the government is pushing upon us all. To me what they are doing is feeding on those who are gullible enough to believe in it. It is getting to the point of near religiousness, and we all know where that leads.
     
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  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    This used to be the common religious argument against AGW, since AGW was viewed as an attack on the presumed omnipotency of 'God'.

    Is that where your predilections lie acdii ? Your parting remark that AGW is taking on a 'religious' fervor strikes me as a bit of freudian projection, typical republican tactics to attack using the same criticisms leveled at themselves, and an appeal to good old heresy.

    I'll wager you are an evangelical christian. Am I right ?
     
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  18. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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  19. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Speaking of religion - this piece on the religion of environmentalism sums it all up nicely.

    Today, one of the most powerful religions in the Western World is environmentalism. Environmentalism seems to be the religion of choice for urban atheists. Why do I say it's a religion? Well, just look at the beliefs. If you look carefully, you see that environmentalism is in fact a perfect 21st century remapping of traditional Judeo-Christian beliefs and myths.

    There's an initial Eden, a paradise, a state of grace and unity with nature, there's a fall from grace into a state of pollution as a result of eating from the tree of knowledge, and as a result of our actions there is a judgment day coming for us all. We are all energy sinners, doomed to die, unless we seek salvation, which is now called sustainability. Sustainability is salvation in the church of the environment. Just as organic food is its communion, that pesticide-free wafer that the right people with the right beliefs, imbibe...

    And more to the point of the original posting, he goes on about the EPA:


    At this moment, the EPA is hopelessly politicized. In the wake of Carol Browner, it is probably better to shut it down and start over. What we need is a new organization much closer to the FDA. We need an organization that will be ruthless about acquiring verifiable results, that will fund identical research projects to more than one group, and that will make everybody in this field get honest fast.
     
  20. Celtic Blue

    Celtic Blue New Member

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    Bingo!