Crazy Volt incentives makes me want to trade

I had no idea the Fit EV's were so rare. Was next to one last weekend and was thinking about how it would be a nice vehicle.

 

And it's not like speculations/predictions have been wrong before about hybrids. Hope you come back to verify them later, Google will be helpful.

Unless someone wants to drive electric like myself and others here, there is almost no reason to buy a Plug-in, not to save money(Volt vs. Cruze). If you get 38 ev mile on a charge and 38 hv mile on gas, you went thru all that effort for the 38 ev mile of replacing 1 gallon of gasoline in that particular car.

Would like to know the high MPG ICE, and no plug-in sales, none except for maybe Tesla Model S(not sure 'cause of pre-orders) is going anywhere yet! April 2013 Chevrolet Volt Sales Fairly Flat With 1,306 Sold, As Inventory Continues To Grow

 

You seem to still be math challenged.

 

John has a very unique way of inputting his data so that it accurately tracks EV and gasoline costs is my guess. Notice his average cost per gallon of premium is $1.89. Unless he has a storage container of vintage gas that he bought 5 years ago that he siphons off into his Volt, EV costs are worked into the data. He's only used some 49 gallons of gasoline to go the distance... If I am doing my math correctly.

 

I think if you look around the parking lot at any shopping mall you will quickly come to the conclusion that we are still inthe lower part of phase B. Hybrids have barely made a dent in total market share.

The idea of efficiency in cars is an echo chamber here on PC. Not so for the rest of the car buyers.

The mandate by CARB for EVs might backfire a bit. Requiring "every" car maker to sell ZEV or PZEV (EV or plugins since other technologies aren't mature enough) is going to provide some diversity of choices and designs. But it also means very small sales for many inidividual car models. This leads to not many trained techs, hard to get repair parts, low economy of scale, etc. 5-7 years from now the technology will be better and cheaper.

(Yes, I know it won't get better and cheaper unless they are made an sold. But CARB tried to do this 15 years ago as well and it did backfire).

Mike

 

Please note: the chart is performance vs time.. not market acceptance..
(Performacne could be many elements: fuel efficency, cost, speed, power....)
Acceptance is a different plot.. here ia plot that is usually used to relate the two (per technology)




Sure there is plenty of room for more hybrids.. but if the performance difference is not sufficiently higher than an ICE, and the driver characteristics are not as good, or the price is higher, there may not be wide spread adoption.

Looking that the average MPG of new cars, its clear that fuel economey is improving, but is also limited by the low end

 

volt trending: owners are wrapped around "free" charging, tax credits for the car, and a low leasing rate. This is how in their mind(s) they justify the car.

It will be interesting when all these leased volts come to the end of their lease. The market gets saturated with used volts along with new ones that the public don't want. If the dealers are having problems now moving the car, I can only imagine when they get stuck with a growing inventory of used ones.

Then again, the used ones could be sent to auction.

DBCassidy

 

hybrids don't require plugging in, come in wider selection (models, specs, features, etc), and often has lower cost of ownership than ICE only (depending on gas prices). it's also got a little bit of eco panache (compared to PEV/EV that is).
there's only so many of us PEV/EV buyers out there that are willing to pay extra to lower GHG footprint (or have the coolest car on the block... Tesla S)

 

There's a fundamental difference in target market. Mainstream consumers typically don't participate in online blogs & forums. Enthusiasts sound off in a droves. Their background & research varies significantly too. Know your audience.

Who is buying now? Who will be interested later? Who is the vehicle intended for?

 

I don't think you can use those average mpg for ach MY to prove the point of changing technology. This is because, as gas prices went up, many consumers just bought a different low tech low mpg car, that got higher mpg. For example, giant SUVs (i.e. Hummers) replaced with a smaller SUV. Both have no special high tech way of getting higher mpg, but the consumer did purchase a higher mpg car. You'd really need to analyze how many cars in each size/weight class and how the mpg of each class changed.

Mike

 

They are very rare. I don't think it helps that it's lease only and its lease price is kinda high. 2013 Honda Fit EV Overview - Official Site even says "The Fit EV is available now through 2014 for a select group of customers."

I saw 2 (possibly the same car) when I was in Irvine late last year when meeting w/So Cal Priuschatters. I think I've only ever spotted 0 or 1 up here. Auto show sightings don't count.

 

158,069 Toyota division
19,889 Prius family

12.6 % of their US sales in April were Prius

Demand remains steady and a decent chunk of traditional production has been replaced by Prius.

As for Volt, it desperately needs to diversify. The current configuration falls well short of the mainstream minimum (5,000 per month). It alone (no battery-size choice, no hybrid-only version, no midsize model, etc) is clearly not enough.

Also, let's not overlook the reality that there are 8,612 new Volt listed as dealer inventory right now. That's roughly a 6-month supply unsold. There's also 272 used Volt listed. Lastly, consider what will happen with the 3-year leases begin to expire the end of this year.

What does that tell you?

 

That's fair enough. We can explicitly limit discussion to immediate purchases only.

Though, the inevitable aspect of resale value will come up regardless... which requires consideration of inventory as a whole, as well as next-gen model options.

Of course, you have to answer a question for me. WHO is shopping for a plug-in vehicle? Are they someone that would choose to postpone a purchase if they don't find anything currently fitting their purchase criteria? Will it be their only vehicle? Will they buy or lease? Will they upgrade a few years from now or drive it to the ground? Will they be replacing a mainstream vehicle, like a Camry/Corolla or Malibu/Cruze or Fusion/Focus? We need to know what market is being addressed.

 

in cali, we know it's people looking for an hov sticker.

 

Your math should be much closer to 40mpg and 49mpg. If somebody's doing a long drive, they'll be doing a lot more highway driving rather than a 55%/45% city/highway split.

 

The issue of giving away money: on the taxpayers' dime. Yes, it is wrong to do that.

DBCassidy