Dashboard summary: December 2015

Increase due to more models (YAY!) but overall sales of each are mostly down. Cheap gas.

Also, PIP RIP.

 

Other than the prius liftback hybrids seem deep in the dumps. I expect this to get worse next year, with the liftback and possibly the ioniq garnering good numbers, but cheap gas pushing down on the rest.

Interesting that 2 plug-ins turn in the top 5

Prius liftback
Ram Pick-up diesel
Tesla model S
prius c
volt

The ram diesel is a throw away, pick-ups sell much better than cars, so it doesn't represent a big percentage of the ram population of trucks. It may grow next year, but with cheap gas, people may not want to pay the diesel premium.

Next year the model S is not supply constrained, but tesla's own model X will be competing with it for some of those customers that bought an S but wanted an X, so I don't expect much growth. The prius c may be hurt by the new gen IV prius depending on price of the new car. The volt should do much better next year as the 2016 and 2017 models are much better than the 2015.

The next 5 are
prius v
fussion
camry
Lexus Rx
Lexus CT

The prius v and lexus ct will probably suffer from the gen IV liftback until they make it onto the new platform. Better pricing could pick up sales of the fusion and camry hybrids though.

2016 looks like a good year for plug-ins, but for non-plug-in hybrids other than the prius liftback I anticipate bad sales.

 

Rank Best-Selling Car 2015 / 2014% Change

#1 Toyota Camry 429,355 / 428,606 0.2%
#2 Toyota Corolla 363,332 / 339,498 7.0%
#3 Honda Accord 355,557 / 388,374 -8.4%
#4 Honda Civic 335,384 / 325,981 2.9%
#5 Nissan Altima 333,398 / 335,644 -0.7%
#6 Ford Fusion 300,170 / 306,860 -2.2%
#7 Hyundai Elantra 241,706 / 222,023 8.9%
#8 Chevrolet Cruze 226,602 / 273,060 -17.0%
#9 Hyundai Sonata 213,303 / 216,936 -1.7%
#10 Nissan Sentra 203,509 / 183,268 11.0%
#11 Ford Focus 202,478 / 219,634 -7.8%
#12 Chevrolet Malibu 194,854 / 188,519 3.4%
#13 Chrysler 200 177,889 / 117,363 51.6%
#14 Kia Optima 159,414 / 159,020 0.2%
#15 Subaru Outback 152,294 / 138,790 9.7%
#16 Nissan Versa 144,528 / 139,781 3.4%
#17 Kia Soul 147,133 / 145,316 1.3%
#18 Volkswagen Jetta 131,109 / 160,873 -18.5%
#19 Ford Mustang 122,349 / 82,635 48.1%
#20 Toyota Prius 118,020 / 136,040 -13.2%
------Toyota Prius ^ 113,829 / 122,776 -7.3%
------Toyota Prius Plug-In ^ 4191 / 13,264 -68.4%
#21 Chevrolet Impala 116,825 / 140,280 -16.7%
#22 Mazda 3 107,885 / 104,985 2.8%
#23 Subaru Impreza 100,519 / 83,488 20.4%
#24 Dodge Charger 94,725 / 94,099 0.7%
#25 BMW 3-Series 94,527 / 100,790 -6.2%
Source: Automakers & ANDC

 

discontinued?

 

From the link: For the year, sales were down based on a decline in the Volt and the Prius Plug-in hybrid which ceased production in June.

 

both have new models coming out.

 

yoy plug-in sales were down a disappointing 6501 units. Figures are inside ev which seem more accurate than hybrid cars.

leaf fell 13,254
prius phv fell 9063
volt fell 2912

These were made up for mostly by the tesla model S, bmw i3 and i8, and vw e-golf. With the prius phv on hiatus for over a year, that story is most disappointing, this is the biggest percentage drop. The gen II is not due until the end of this year at the earlliest so it won't contribute until 2017. The leaf sales were affected by the slow roll out of the 30 kwh and wait for the gen II, and bolt, had the biggest quantity drop, there is hope for some recovery this year depending on the gen II and the bolt. Volt didn't drop much at all, and with healthy december sales and a 2017 update due in spring, looks like it will race to number 2 behind the model S.

 

Cayenne Diesel - with the VW diesel FUBAR, I'd enquired about whether or not that product would get caught up in the stopped sales mess. I think someone raised the question whether or not a diesel version even existed. Well according to Bob's chart - there it is. and sales are up. From that, I'll presume they're giving them the green light on their diesel.

The Lexus SUV is sure taking it in the shorts - down 50% each subsequent month.

 

That's not a bad showing for Prius Hybrid under the circumstances.

I am thinking Plug_in Hybrids have a tough year in 2016 unless Ca. extents green HOV stickers. My guess is Ca. will extend green stickers to help out PHEV sales. PHEV falling in Ca. vs. BEV

In Va. we have HOV plates so as long as you keep buying a new green car you can transfer HOV plates. In that way we (unintentionally) keep new green car sales up for those lucky grandfathered green car owners. We are going to HOT-3 lanes without green car access so we'll lose our little green car "re-buy" bonus in a few years.

 

You have to understand this year was bad for phevs, as the prius went on hiatus and gm practically told people to wait for the next volt Remember california is less than half of phev sales, and the sticker move may lower its percentage, but the volt gen II should easily outsell this year, the fusion energi and bmw i3 should also sell well, and we have anouther delay but probable entry of the outlander phev, and the just released a3 phev, and likely ioniq phev introduction. I expect rebound off these low 2015 levels inspite of cheap gasoline. My guess is 2017 is the year for the phev with bmw, mercedes, hyundai, and ford releaseing new or updated models this year and early next year. 43,000 this year is a low base, I would expect at least 65,000 sold in 2017 without more stickers. If california gets its head out of its you know what, the numbers could be much higher.

Lesf sales may continue to be low compared to 2014 until the gen II comes out. That bolt kind of blows away the gen I leaf in terms of range and may have many prospective leaf customers waiting. Model X, and S should continue the strong growth in the bev sector. 72,000 last year shold be at least 90,000 this year, and 110,000 in 2017

All in all plug-ins should grow substantially in 2016 in the US, Europe, and China.

 

The only reason I see Volt2 could have a good year is Volt1/PiP1 buyers at end of 3-yr lease, unless of course Ca. extends the green HOV sticker program.

 

You don't see camry, cruze, corrola, focus, owners stepping up? This summer the 2017 is out, and with the tax credit looks like a good value. I don't think there are many pip owners compared to the market. I think a total of less than 43,000 prius phvs sold, with very few coming off lease. They were the most likely to say car pool stickers were very important to buying, so that isn't a good market. On the other hand high end high tech compact should be much bigger. With only 15,393 volts sold in 2015, I can't imagine that they don't blow the number away. Its up to dealers of course, but it should not be that much of a sales challenge. 2013 they sold 23,000, and I expect they sell at least that many with the better value proposition inspite of cheap gasoline.

 

Oh that was in response to wjtracy on his prediction of slow sales of the 2016 and 2017 volt because of lack of car pool stickers. The price of the base is $25,700 after federal tax credit (if you don't qualify its rolled into leases) That puts it in the price range of the camry, especially in states like california that put an extra $1500 tax credit. I mentioned camry and corolla because those were popular cars to trade in on the volt when it started shipping. Its not too surprising, the camry and corrola were the two best selling cars last year. Between those two toyota sold 790,000 units (unfortunately only 30,640 were hybrids). If someone doesn't need the back seat, and will make do with a hatchback(liftback/fastback don't know the correct termonology it used to be fast back when done for aero, and hatch when done for space like in the prius c) instead of a 4 door sedan. The front seats are quite nice. Its plain vanilla on the outside like the camry and corrola, but nice on the inside for driver and front passenger. I've got to belive with some good dealer training they can avearge over 2000/month, once the 2017 and nationwide roll out happens. Cruze included because it should be an up-sell, focus like the corolla a competing but more boring compact. Didn't want to make the list too long. Didn't include the fusion because it has a phev version. Civics may also be a target.

On your comments, I think its the dealers and low gas prices on the camry hybrids. The take rate is not as good as it should be. I don't think there is much wrong with those hybrids, but if you are selling them for gas savings... Camry has a 7.1% take rate, fusion between the hybrid and energi 11.5%, sonata 9.3%, and Lexus ES that camry variant a nice 17.3% take rate for the hybrid.

I've got to disagree about the cruise diesel having life. It only had a take rate of 1.4%, they aren't getting many of those vw tdi customers, and it is probably a money loser. It probably does better in europe where they like those things, but its not cutting it in the US.

The corola was up 24,000 units this year. with 35 mpg combined in the eco version it probably is taking away some potential hybrid buyers.

 

GM has Hatch Cruze coming! 2017 Chevrolet Cruze Hatchback | CleanMPG

Toyota Motor Europe (TME) sold 874,000 vehicles in 2015 with record 209,000 hybrid sales Automotive World

 

Gen 4 Prius went on sale Dec. 9

 

Europe had 14.5M sales in 2015, US 17.5M
I doubt there were many non toyota/lexus hybrid sales in europe. Lets say 250,000 or 1.7% getting closer to US 384.4K falling to 2.2% .Let's hope take rate improves in 2016, but I don't think the gen IV prius is enough. Japan looks like the only good hybrid market.

Japan - Flash report, Sales volume, 2015 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal
Japan fell to only 5.047 Million cars, only 3.1 Million non mini vehicles. This downturn was predicted with the previous can subsidies over, and the weak yen abenomics is hoping will increase exports and employment.

aqua and prius kept their first and second place in best selling cars.
2015 (Full Year) Japan: 30 Best-Selling Car Models
Aqua (prius c) 215,525, -7.6%
prius (liftback) 127,403 -30.6%

Those two models alone accounted for 11% of the japanese non mini car market. There were many other hybrids. Perhaps the prius will outsell the aqua this year with the new model. Someone else with better knowledge of the models can give us a percent.