Featured Dashboard summary: November 2015

I don't think the loss of the state rebate will slow down Tesla sales much, if any.
And the doubling of the incentive at lower income levels should help quite a bit.

I would expect a $2500 increase for lower income people will help the plugin market a lot more than the $2500 loss for higher income folks.

 

the 35k tesla should end the slide once and for all.

 

I think the second gen EVs as a whole will end the slide once and for all.
The second gen Leaf and the Bolt are both looking at 150-200 miles of range in the $30-$40k range.

Those two and the Model 3 alone will propel EVs beyond the 3% market share.
Other competitors will refine their solutions and yet more will jump on board.

 

i sure hope so. we still need gas to reverse direction though.

 

if the sale/lease is to a state, county or local municipality, shouldn't they show up?

Wait . . . . didn't Toyota boast they'd already sold/leased a much higher quantiry?
.

 

I wonder if PHEV will see fall-off in Ca due to 2019 deadline?
What happens in 2019 in Ca., do PHEV lose free HOV access?
Do BEV keep free HOV for longer period?

 

Slide is temporary and unexpected. It was caused by change overs

volt gen 1 to gen II
leaf 24kwh to 30 kwh and gen II
prius phv gen I discontinued, gen II due end of 2016 or 2017?
Growth should return next year, just a model change on volts and leaf hurt 2015, and slide small. Low gas prices enforced it. Yes when tesla model III appears we should accelerate growth, but slide already is reversed in November, and growth looks locked in in 2016 versus 2014 (current best year). Slide on hydrids may continue inspite of the gen IV prius.

Yes they show up even if they are just to carb to boost numbers.

Toyota said they had sold or leased 34. Maybe some of these weren't shipped until December, who knows if the other 11 have shipped yet?

Toyota claimed they had a goal of 200 this year, and had more than enough "orders" to sell that many. Those "orders" aren't orders, just people interested. I have no idea how many of the 200 will take delivery this year. They have since started talking about more than 100. Without stations can you blaime anyone for not wanting the car to be delivered and just garaged waiting? Still with 10 commercial stations expected to be running this month, I don't understand how they don't have 20 per station leased and shipped?

 

i'll be interested to see growth in percentage, not quantity. i don't buy it until gas goes back up.

 

Toyota_December_2015_Sales_Chart.pdf

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

Tough to sell the PiP when you stopped making them months ago.
Perhaps an exec at Toyota figured this would allow them to announce the Mirai sold better than the PiP some month?
Not quite yet though (22 PiP vs 15 Mirai). Getting close though, maybe January?

 

I didn't even notice the mirai line. They only delivered 72 of the 200 forecast for 2015. I would say that is quite meaningless, as slower than expected hydrogen stations have pushed orders into 2016. The tough part is the safety waiver only exists until mid 2017, which means to get to 3000, they either need another waiver, or they may not make it. I'm sure all of the mirai not leased in america can be leased in Japan, as their is a waiting list there.

On the prius phv, yeah those are just the few left on lots. We shouldn't expect sales until the next generation probably not until 2017, as we don't yet have a sell date or even specs. I don't think either the mirai or prius phv will do much to change the top or bottom line of toyota in 2016.