Do you think the Prius will be worth anything...

This is VERY helpful and how I will look at it. If I get a Prius I wouldn't have plans on selling it for a LONG time. So I guess like you say any car 10 years old won't be worth alot. That's a good way to look at it since whatever I buy I'm being careful that I like it so I can keep it for a long time!

 

The battery for California buyers (I don't have a Prius yet so I don't have manual to confirm) is supposedly warranted for 10 years/150K miles.

If I remember correctly this changes for the 06 models..... right?

I think the 150K Cali warrantee is part of the PZEV cert and did not change for '06.

 

price will always be determined by demand, availability and need. i think we havent even begun to see the sweeping success of the Prius. as more people buy them, the word will spread. i think they will be in short supply for a long time to come

 

Dave,

I still do not think the Prius will hold its value well. I think the high resale value we enjoy right now is a function of very tight supply vs high demand (We seem to agree on that).

However... companies have an uncanny ability to increase supply to match demand... and it is almost unthinkable to me that the tight supply will continue. Once supply catches up, and the waitlists go down... the premium for a used Prius will evaporate. People on this forum seem to think that owning a car for a year or two, and then selling it for the purchase price is sustainable! I think that is delusional thinking.

Next... the Prius appeals to a very "tech savvy" crowd right now. In 2 years... an '06 Prius will be "old technology" to the tech crowd decreasing the value to these people. Look at the way people on this forum are lamenting that thier '05 model is missing a feature a simple as 'aux-in" connector. What is the tech crowd going to do when simply driving into their garage "wirelessly docks" their new Prius... automatically sycnronizes their car's built in digital music device to their digital music collection in the house... downloads their driving history into your home computer along with the rear, front, and side video clips showing how you were sideswiped illegally... or even who dinged your door while parked at the mall. etc. At the same time... as you correctly point out... more people (non-tech savvy) will become accustomed to the Prius so this particular issue will be partially offset. Let's call it a wash.

I still think the potential repair costs of everything a conventional car has... plus the additional costs of the hybrid components... plus the inability to have this protected by an extended warrantee is more than a lot of people are willing to risk. Batteries do get old and tired over time... they all do.

Finally... I think that the biggest indicator we can use is how Toyota itself predicts the future value of hybrids. Look at the end value that Toyota uses in Prius lease contracts for 24, 36, 48 months. I have not personally looked at them, but I have briefly read posts were people were complaining that the lease terms are very unfavorable. I think this is probably as close as possible to what Toyota's "official position" would be on their projected long term value of their vehicles. It is exactly how they are choosing to value them.

Like I said... I am buying my two Prii knowing that resale will probalby not be anywhere near as good as if I bought a more convential car. I have other reasons for wanting one that are more important to me than resale value.

/Jim

 

flynz4:

you maybe right... but i dont think so. the reason i say this is because first we have to look at how well the Prius fits the need and what percentage of the population it fits.

sure there have been many cars that came out hot, very high markups and very short supply...even the hummer had THAT distinction... but lets face it. even when the hummer was smokin' we all knew it wouldnt last. simply not a large enough market (not to mention it being priced out of most people's reach anyway)

so now i think we can agree that the Prius (or the hybrid models of this class) will be in HUGE demand for many many more years. it simply has an very large potential client base. in fact, over 50% and that is probably a conservative estimate.

it is also my prediction that demand for the Prius HAS NOT PEAKED...i still believe (mostly because i encounter ignorance nearly every day despite being in an area that has a much higher awareness about the Prius) that for every new Prius that is sold, 3-5 new potential buyers will be generated. that is a trend i believe that will easily outlast the 2006 model year.

in a nutshell, i believe that Toyota can easily sell 25 million Priuses over the next 15 years. i believe that timeframe is sufficient for you to trade up. as you well know, the likelihood of Toyota meeting that demand is very slim. that will make the used Prius market a very very hot one for YEARS

only time will tell.

 

Dave,

But as a larger percentage of cars being sold become hybrid technology as you predict (and I agree with)... then the resale value should become closer to average. Looking at it in the limit... if all cars were hybrids... then the resale value would be average by definition. Since the resale value of hybrids is currently inflated... a trend towards "average" would lower the resale value compared to its current inflated value.

However... the swing factor for me is that Toyota (by their lease policy)... seems to think that resale values will be worse than average. I have given my reasons why I think that is the case (mostly potential for large repairs).

There is no reason to believe that if all cars were hybids... that they would depreciate any slower than current traditional vehicles unless their longevity was longer. I am concerned that longevity will be lower... not longer... hence the faster depreciation.

In any case... this is not something that I worry about. In fact... since I think the value will drop to near zero as the car gets old... then I will not be disspointed regardless of what happens With an extended warrantee... I am not worried about outrageous cost of repairs over my planned ownership period either. I do think that if some people are "counting on" a high resale value... or somehow figuring in a high resale value in their financial analysis... that they will end up being disapointed. It is really easy to be seduced into thinking "traditionally people could buy a Prius, drive it for 2 years... and then get all of their money back". This is not sustainable in my opinion.

/Jim

 

Jim,
I congratulate you on buying not one but two Prius even though you expect to take a hit on your trade-ins. Of course no-one can predict the future, but I expect that you will be pleasantly surprised to find that you were wrong about this. You don't seem to take into account that the Prius is a really good car and that fuel efficiency will continue to be a popular feature. And if the price of fuel increases again anything like it did this year the market for used Prius will be even better.

 

Toyota has already indicated they will not be increasing production of the Prius for 2006. To me this only means low supply coupled with high demand. Yes, there will be other models of hybrids but only one Prius.

Also, add an increase to the cost of gasoline and guess what will happen? I'm not worried about resale. I, more than likely, would be able to get what I paid for mine if I wanted a 2007 model. Likely more if the cost of gasoline goes up again. And what do you think the odds of gas going up again? I thought so.

Next subject

 

While I agree that selling a used car for more than, or nearly the same as, it's original purchase price is an anomaly that cannot continue, and that the extremely high resale value of Priuses today is artificial, I still believe that Prius will have better resale value down the road than almost any other car. (Though, like you, resale value had nothing to do with my choice to buy one.)

Actual resale value will, as I said in an earlier post, be determined by the car's long-term repair history. With no clutch or transmission to need replacing, I predict a much better than average long-term total repair cost. And with Toyota reliability I predict a lower-than-average repair incidence. The battery is a non-issue. Toyota has solved the battery-life issue by holding the SOC within a narrow range. True, it cannot last forever, but no car lasts forever. The body will rust away before the battery capacity becomes inadequate.

I plan on trading in (or selling) my Prius as soon as the next major model revision arrives. I will take a fairly large hit, because even a Prius will be worth a lot less 6 or 7 years old than its new model replacement. But I'll have a new toy, even higher tech than the old, and someone who cannot afford a new Prius will be able to start burning half as much gas as previously, so I'll be helping the environment by passing mine along to someone who had to wait for used ones to come to market.

 

To be honest because of the fact that the Prius is so computerized it seems to have allowed alot of enthusiasts to customize this car heavily. It's odd that people initially talk about the higher price of a Prius over a comparable conventional gas car, but then they go ahead and think about spending thousands more on things like new tires, new wheels, new stereo, upgrading the computer display, adding cameras, adding solar panels and upgrading the hybrid batteries. And all this starts to make owning a Prius closer to owning a home.

When you own a home, it does not lose value because it gets old. With a house when things break you replace the part and the house does not lose value. With a house you add on new rooms or remodel the basement and you increase it's value. With the Prius you can add 3rd party batteries and increase it's value. And as long as the basic frame and foundation of the house is strong you don't think about replacing the entire house, just making upgrades to enhance things. My sense is that the Toyota Prius is going to be a super reliable frame and foundation. The brakes are going to last forever. The gas engine is going to last much longer because it's stressed much less than in a conventional car. The CVT transmission doesn't under go the impact of gear switching and so will last a very long time. The electric motor is going to be more reliable than the gas motor.

So that leaves the hybrid battery, which is likely to last 120,000 miles. But I can see the time that as more hybrid cars are on the road the price of batteries will drop. I've read predictions that by 2008 the cost of replacing the Prius battery will be about $1000. Right now one company is selling an upgrade battery system that allows you to drive on pure electric for about 40 to 50 miles on a full charge. The current cost is $12,000, but by 2010 maybe it will be only $2,000. So let's say 5 years down the road someone comes out with a 100 mpg hybrid car and you get jealous. So instead of buying a new car you upgrade your Prius with a newer higher capacity Lithium Ion battery. But who knows maybe by 2010 Sears and Pepboys will be selling Lithium ion batteries for about $1,000 that will upgrade the Prius into a 100 mpg average vehicle.

Of course, the resale value of the Prius will not be as invincible as that of a house. But I think it's going to hold it's value much higher than other cars, because it's such an easily customizable car. With conventional cars you have to customize things by replacing mechanical parts and hardware. With the Prius acting in many ways as a computer controlled electric car, you can customize the Prius with generic electric component upgrades and adding more software.

 

to driveprius...

i never complained about the cost of my Prius... and yes im over $1,000 in upgrades and that is without all of the standard upgrades for cars (stereo, tires, wheels, decals) all are Prius-specific with the poss exception of the ipod adapter which is useful for any vehicle.

but just as spending money to help my son enrich his life, i would not hesistate to spend money on things that enrich my Prius. however, just as i will not spend money wantonly on Devin, i have had no issues with tracking or traction so i still use the original tires. the basic stereo more than suits my needs so i doubt that new speakers will be needed.

but rest assured... if something comes down that is cool, i will buy it. my process... if its something i want... i buy first...worry about cost later... and anything that is a few hundred i will buy simply to check it out

latest purchase: CANVIEW Flash unit. CHEAP!! actually the CANVIEW unit itself at about $200 is cheap...since it provides LT updates. now i realize this product is a masterpiece still in development so updates are now coming fast and furiously. so the Flash unit is a no-brainer

to flynz4: i agree with what you say, but i still stand by my contention that what you describe will not happen in the lifetime of any Prius currently on the road today. that is all im saying. if you crunch numbers. estimated demand for the Prius will easily exceed 25 million. that will make it one of the most popular cars ever built. it will be YEARS before Toyota can meet that demand

 

I can see both sides of this argument, but tend to lean towards the large depreciation group because Prius will likely improve rapidly over the next couple of years.

Selling 2k4-6 somewhat before the next major revisison comes out might make sense; but personaly, I will probably just bite my tongue until a PHEV mod is available.

 

Welp, I can offer you a slight perspective on this topic...

Recently, I was looking to trade in my Prius for an SUV or truck. :lol:

Anyway, I didn't, for various reasons, and for a stock 2004, bare-bones, no package of this or that with 25k on the clock, I was offered anywhere from 14,900 to 18,000 as trade in value from a range of dealerships (at least 5), most offering between 16 and 18.

 

I think the comparison between a home and a car is fallacious. A house does lose value with age. But a house ages more slowly (it lasts longer than a car) and its value is obscured by the inflationary bubble of real estate prices. It's the real estate that goes up, not the house itself.

The frame of a car rusts eventually, the moving parts wear out, and new innovations come along that cannot be easily retrofitted into older cars.

As for putting aftermarket features into a car, I am sure the VAST majority of Prius owners never alter their cars. PriusChat is not representative. We are the geeks who have computers AND choose to spend time at the computer talking about our cars. I put top-of-the-line tires on my car (as I would have for any other car I owned) and I spend $50 on the Costal Tech EV switch. Nothing more. I'd love to have a plug-in hybrid, or even just bigger battery, such as Wayne Brown has installed in his. But for me it's all just dreaming. Ain't gonna happen. I'll wait for Toyota to come out with the next big improvement. (And I won't sell ahead of time to try to reap a higher resale price, because that would mean being without a Prius.)

 

Not that this means anything... but there's a very high mileage pri on ebay that has "electrical problems"

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/2001-Toyota...1QQcmdZViewItem

God only knows what the car has been throught... but figured it applied to the thread

 

It's a 2001 and it does not run. He appears not to know what the problem is. He says he thinks it is "probably" electrical. At a starting price of $4K there are no bids yet. Okay, so this proves that even a Prius can break down. But we already knew that. The relevant information is how often does a Prius break down compared to other vehicles. I believe much less often.