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DOE concludes Electric Vehicles satisfy the daily needs of drivers longer than assumed

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Apr 27, 2015.

  1. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    "The only thing I need to worry about is how to spend the money I am saving from not needing gas."

    Hmmm....Fuelly says I've spent $1,720 in gas over 30 months or around $55 a month. How long till I spend more on gas than the difference in purchase cost between your car and mine? (Yea, I know, oil changes, tune ups, etc. but still its a long, long time. And I'm not asking about the differences in insurance costs, taxes, opportunity cost of money, etc.)

    Somehow I don't think you bought a Tesla to save.

    (Great car, BTW)
     
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  2. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    While it is very true that I didn't buy the car to save money, it is a fringe benifit if you keep everything else the same.

    The closest comparable car to mine (size, performance, technology, safety) is the Audi A7.
    My car costs the same amount, so the first time I plugin vs fuel up I'm ahead of the game.

    If we are comparing similar vehicles, I would compare the Leaf to the Prius.
    The Prius has more space inside, the Lesf wins on drive quality.

    Cost is roughly the same (currently). If the Leaf meets your driving needs, it wins from a cost point of view.
     
  3. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    Ah but you were talking about saving.

    When I compare our cars, I've made more money by investing what I didn't spend by buying your car than it has cost me in gas. So my gas has been essentially free. And I still have the money to buy the next car.

    Things may change over time as new models are introduced and prices change.

    But for now making an economic argument for a Tesla doesn't persuade this investor. Not sure I could even make one for a hybrid.
     
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  4. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    If you are comparing vehicles that don't have the same capabilities you may as well buy a bike.
    If you want similar cars, you should be leasing a Leaf for $199/month.
    Many Leaf owners I know of used to spend $200/month in gas, so the Leaf is essentially free for them.
     
  5. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    I'll present one my grandfathers points of view about his high tech transportation vehicle:
    1) Range was always "far enough" on renewable fuel grown on his land. (and vice versa!)
    2) Self refueling. No nozzles, plugs, or anything with moving parts needed.
    3) Self navigating. Just point and ride.
    4) Didn't have to do any modification to the house. (The barn was a different matter.)
    5) Ultra-reliable.
    6) Self-Propagating. By the time the glue factory called, the new model was broken in and ready.
     
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  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Yes cars are not an investment, they are a cost. If you aren't driving a 10 year old corolla, you probably are paying more than you need to for depreciation and insurance.

    But most car buyers, and even a higher proportion of prius drivers, are willing to pay more for a nicer car. We spend a lot of time in our cars.

    If a prius is good enough you aren't saving by buying a tsla, but a lot of people would spend more to have that tesla. Its all about value.

    Wait a second, I've made more on tesla stock than I've spent on my prius;) No not what you meant. Definitely only 5% of the populastion is interested in the model S, for others its too expensive or they want an engine.

    That will change when lower priced batteries and lower priced models come out. The leaf is cheaper than the average car, but the limitation on both acceleration and range and looks probably give it a smaller potential market than the model S. Still nissan will work on all those things on the gen II.
     
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  7. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    My last two cars were sold at 12 years and 10 so I do keep cars until the depreciation is minimal. I also insure with a very high deductible. I buy a car for the functionality I need and/or want at the time. Yes, the last car was a Porsche and it wasn't a base engine. So I'm not above paying more for the fun factor. But then I'd not make an argument about the Porsche saving on gas or repairs or depreciation (even though I was the third owner). I bought it for the fun, loved it and sold it. Part of the reason was that for any repair, and it didn't need many, the nearest shop was 50 miles away. Just like it would be for a Tesla.

    My Prius is a v three, not a five. But it has added softex seats because I like them, DRLs for safety, Weathertech mats for practicality (let me tell you about the apple juice spill sometime) and eBay center caps on the wheels because I hated the hubcaps. One of the reasons for the Prius purchase was because its controls and displays are so different they were fun. Beyond that it was practicality. And the dealer is 2 miles away and on the route we use most often.

    Not everyone has the same priorities. Nor should they. And every car choice is a trade-off between advantages and disadvantages.

    But lets not suggest that a $70k+ car is the perfect fit for everyone. Or that a Tesla is a typical EV. It's much better and far nearer to the capabilities that would make an EV attractive. But it isn't going to be bought by the 90% who haven't had a raise in years or are living on fixed incomes.

    Lots of people have use patterns or live in locations that aren't favorable to EV use. Or they don't want to spend that much, or can't. That limits the market for now.

    In future years when the EV prices have dropped and when chargers are built out and next gen batteries are in use....
     
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    No one has suggested EVs work well for everyone.
    Likewise, we shouldn't try to pretend they don't work for anyone.

    My point is they do work well for lots of people.
     
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  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    well said.(y)
     
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    well yes, definitely on the same page here.
    Well that's why I said 5%, not 90%. There probably are 5% that will happily spend that much, can install a charger, and will be happier with an S or an X than their current vehicle. 5% is pretty huge about 850,000 vehicles in the US a year. Only 573,000 hybrids and plug-ins sold last year. I think it will take a while for those 5% to see, touch, drive a long range bev though, so it will be a slow rise, maybe only 35% growth a year from the 17,000 they sold last year. That means it may take to 2024 for Tesla to get to 340,000.;) Musk is hoping for 500,000 in 2020, but that seems high even if the model 3 is on time. Still there are other automakers (gm, nissan, ford) that look like they want to sell a long range bev at a lower price point to get bigger market share.

    Yep that was my only point. It will take time but its not the tech, its the buyers and the prices. If you think in terms of adoption 12% in the US and China by 2035 seems like a good goal. That includes phev, short run bev, and long range bev. I expect Europe and Japan to lag. By 2035 both the US and Chinese grids should be much cleaner, and infrastructure built out. Get to 10% and $150/kw battery packs and battery swap makes a lot of sense. Then if gasoline prices spike, those making the popular plug-ins will be able to conquer the majority of car buyers. If oil prices stay bellow $100 adjusted for inflation (lower than 2008) then plug-ins will probably remain a more minor part of the market.
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I really did not want to get in a 'grids should be much cleaner', red herring discussion earlier because:
    • implies we buy our efficient car for environmental reasons
    We're different buyers with different motivations and I am not trying to toss mud on a 'green' buyer. Rather, the discussion of a 'clean grid' buys into a stereotype, "green" buyers. I've tried to emphasize I'm "Yankee Geenback dollar" green and that had more to do with buying Prius than anything else. I like the mods made to our Prius to make them more utilitarian and wish Toyota would do the same. Had the full electrical power from a parked Prius could have been ganged together, I suspect 5-10 Prius could have replaced the flooded emergency generators at Fukushima Diichi and saved a lot of grief.

    The maximum, electrical power out, MG1, from even the 2001-03 Prius is ~18kW. The power electronics has the capability and if it could be synchronized via the MG2 electronics (a fairly trivial task) you're talking a whole lot of power with diesel-like efficiency.

    I see hybrids as plug-in to my house so I can get not only electrical but heat and cooling. The car becomes a mobile co-generator. But then I'm an engineer and don't realize it is impossible. <gerrrrr>

    My point is I don't think we need to encourage the "halo" effect claimed by gassers or "bambi lovin', flower sniffing" attitude thrown at the Prius and other efficient cars. If the 'grid' is dirty, buy your own solar panels and fix your house and car first. But make it an efficient car.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Here in Cali ... most Chademo QC's are at dealerships, which invariably are near freeway exits - or iow, no more than 5 minutes off the beaten path to get to the QC. And with Nissan, Kia, & mitsu dealerships, there are a whole bunch of Q.C.'s around. Even with diminished range, I'd bet most low range ev's only hit the QC maybe 6x or 7x a year. That regularity might make a good thread for the EV forums.
    EDIT:
    oops ... maybe you meant 5 minutes (15+5... 20 total)?
    anyway, might as well add one more thing. Upon reading the Tesla forums I can't help but note how many of the S drivers only tend to charge to 70%, because that more than adequately meet their needs.
    .
     
    #32 hill, Apr 29, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2015
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  13. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Just my opinion...most people on "fixed" incomes are retired.
    Retired people, on average, have more wealth than any other group.

    Mike